Adam P. Balcerzak

Europe 2020 Strategy and Structural Diversity Between Old and New Member States. Application of Zero-unitarizatin Method for Dynamic Analysis in the Years 2004-2013

In the year 2015 the European Union has reached the halfway of implementation of Europe 2020 strategy, which is aimed at forming the conditions for sustainable and inclusive economy delivering high levels of employment, productivity and social cohesion. In this context the aim of the paper is to analyze the level of fulfillment its aims with special concentration on diversity between New Member States that joined European Union in 2004 and 2007 (EU-10) and Old European Union Members (EU-15). The empirical part of the paper is based on the taxonomic research with application of zero-unitarization method. In order to make the dynamic analysis for the years 2004-2013 the constant reference point for the whole period was used. The evaluation was based on the Eurostat Europe 2020 indicators. The analysis showed significant diversity between New and Old Member States. However, in the years 2004-2013 EU-10 had made an important progress in the implementation of Europe 2020 strategy.

Multiple-criteria Evaluation of Quality of Human Capital in the European Union Countries

Successful policies and programs leading to improvement of quality of human capital in the context of knowledge-based economy are currently considered as the basic condition for keeping global competitiveness of the European economy. It has been pointed as one of the most important aims of Europe 2020 strategy. In the EU all the countries are obliged to implement national strategies that should result in reaching that aims. As a result, it is necessary to compare countries’ results, which can be useful for pointing the best practices and effective policy guidelines. Thus, the main aim of the article is to provide a multiple-criteria analysis of the quality of human capital in the EU countries at macroeconomic level. Special attention is given here to the results obtained by new member states of the EU. The research is done for the years 2001-2012. Additionally, it gives some insight on the possible influence of the global financial crisis on the dynamics of the quality of human capital in the EU countries. Data from Eurostat is used. Hellwig’s method of taxonomic measure of development with the constant pattern (ideal solution) for the entire period is applied in the research. The Hellwig’s method is very close to TOPSIS method, which is based on a concept of similarity to ideal solution and which is currently commonly applied in multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM). After obtaining the relative measure for the quality of human capital, the countries were grouped into homogenous subsets with application of natural breaks method. The main advantages of the applied methods are high elasticity and methodological simplicity, which is crucial in the case of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA).

Human Development and Quality of Institutions in Highly Developed Countries

The article concentrates on the problem of influence of quality of institutional system in the context of utilizing the potential of knowledge-based economy (KBE) on the human development in highly developed countries. In order to measure the quality of institutional system, a synthetic measure based on multivariate analysis techniques was proposed. To obtain the institutional measure, TOPSIS method was applied. To quantify the institutional factors, the data from Fraser Institute was used. As diagnostic variables of quality of institutions, 29 variables qualified to four aspects of national institutional systems were used: (a) formal regulations influencing entrepreneurship, (b) effectiveness of juridical system in keeping low level of transaction costs and supporting effectiveness of market mechanism, (c) competitive pressure and effectiveness of labor markets, and (d) financial market institutions as a stimulator of development of enterprises with high growth potential. The Human Development Index (HDI) proposed within United Nations Development Programme was used for measuring the quality of life. The estimation of relation between institutions and the human development was made with econometric dynamic panel model. The estimation was made for 24 European Union countries for the years 2004–2010. The econometric analysis shows the positive influence of quality of institutions on the human development in the context of knowledge-based economy in developed countries.

Multiple Criteria Analysis of European Union Agriculture

The main aim of the article is to analyze differences in agriculture performance across the European Union countries in the years 2010-2013. Special attention was devoted to the results achieved by New Member States. The research was conducted with application of multiple criteria analysis tools: the method proposed by Hellwig and Ward’s clustering method. The research was based on the analysis of the World Bank development indicators. It confirms the existence of significant disparity in the performance of agricultural sectors between the old and new member states of the EU .

Fiscal Contractions in Eurozone in the years 1995-2012: Can non-Keynesian effects be helpful in future deleverage process?

Last global financial crisis has led to massive fiscal stimulation actions in EU which resulted in significant increase of public debt. As a result, in near future EU countries will have to adopt much stricter long term fiscal policy that will be necessary for deleveraging process. In this context the aim of the research is to check whether one can find non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Eurozone countries in last decade. If the answer is positive, then could these non-Keynesian effects be significant developing factor. The third scientific question concentrates on the ways the fiscal consolidations were implemented and the potential influence of consolidations strategies on short term growth. The research is based on European Commission and Eurostat fiscal and macroeconomic data for the years 1995–2013. The econometric dynamic panel model based on the concept of conditional convergence was applied. As a complementary method qualitative analysis of cases of significant contractions was used with the concentration on the differences between expansionary and conventional Keynesian cases of fiscal contractions. The research gives some arguments for existence of fiscal transitions channels leading to non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy, which in the same time can be a factor of conditional convergence.

Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Central Europe in the Years 2000–2013

Last two decades were a period of significant discussion concerning determinants of effectiveness of fiscal policy. After some cases of expansionary episodes of fiscal consolidations in eighties of XX century, an intensive international research on the possibility of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions in highly developed countries has started. The aim of the article is to analyze the possibility of obtaining non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in post-transformation countries of Central Europe. An important aim of macroeconomic policy in the analyzed economies is to benefit the advantages of convergence process. Thus, the empirical analysis is made within conditional s-convergence framework. The verification of hypothesis of s-convergence enables to identify the long term tendency of output per capita, in the same time it enables to identify non-Keynesian effects of fiscal prudence and to assess their role in the process of reducing GDP gap between the analyzed economies. Then the potential transmission channels for non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy were analyzed. In the research the data from Eurostat and European Commission for the years 2000-2013 was used. The paper provides arguments in favor of the existence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Central Europe that support the process of conditional convergence.

Crowding Out and Crowding in within Keynesian Framework : Do We Need Any New Empirical Research Concerning Them?

Last global financial crisis resulted in common among developed countries implementation of expansionary fiscal policy as an anti-recession tool. This led to the renewal of academic discussion on stabilization effectiveness of fiscal policy. In this context, the main research goal of this paper is to give theoretical analysis of the determinants of counter-cyclical effectiveness of fiscal policy with special concentration on crowding out and crowding in effects. Methodologically the analysis is done within Keynesian IS-LM framework within the assumption of expectations of economic actors. The theoretical analysis is confronted with the review of empirical papers based on the experiences of developed countries.

Sustainable Development in the European Union in the Years 2004–2013

Implementation of sustainable development strategies is a policy prerequisite for all the European Union countries, which is a result of agreement to realization of such documents as Europe 2020 plan and other more specific international obligations such as agreements on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the progress in creating the conditions for sustainable development achieved by all of the European Union member states should be constantly monitored. The international comparisons in the field should be made with the use of quantitative methods. Thus, the purpose of the research is to examine the progress achieved by European countries in implementing the concept of sustainable development. Special attention was given to the new member states that joined the EU after the year 2004. The research is conducted with the application of the Eurostat data at a macroeconomic level. It is assumed that sustainable development should be treated as a multivariate latent variable. Thus, it can be measured with the application of the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) methodology that includes confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis used in econometrics. In the article, a hypothetical SEM model for the years 2004–2013 was proposed. The model was based on nine observable variables suggested by the Eurostat for measuring sustainable development phenomena at a national level. The application of the SEM model enabled us to identify the usefulness of the observable variables proposed by the Eurostat. The conducted research showed that the new European Union member states have made significant progress in the field of building conditions for sustainable development.

Relations Among Social and Economic Order in European Union Countries

The article concentrates on the problem of sustainability at country level in European Union. Special attention is given here to the relations between two pillars of sustainable development concept: social order and economic order. Thus, the aim of the article is to analyze relationship between the social and economic spheres for European Union members states. The concept of sustainability and its pillars are considered as a multiple-criteria and latent phenomenon. As a result they are analyzed with application of structural equation modeling (SEM). The applied methodology includes confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis. SEM model was used here as it enables to analyse the interrelations between latent variables, which are the result of influence of many factors. The research is conducted with application of data provided by Central Statistical Office of Poland for the years 2004–2013. The applied model enabled to confirm significant influence of the social order on the economic order.

Structural Changes in the Interdependence Among Polish and Key Capital Markets in the World in the Years 2004–2014

Globalization process and main determinants of development increase the level of interrelationships among highly developed economies. The role of these factors especially in relation to capital markets has become an important subject of economic research. As a result, the main aim of the article was to analyze the changes in the interdependence among the most important capital markets in the world and Polish capital market with special consideration of potential influence of the last global financial crisis. Thus, the interdependence among capital markets of United States, Great Britain, Germany and Poland were analyzed. In the research DCC-GARCH model was used. In the first stage the interdependence among the selected markets was analyzed. A research hypothesis pointing to a similar course and changes of the interdependence among the markets was verified. Then the analysis of breakpoints for the received conditional correlations processes was performed. The procedure enabled to verify the influence of the global financial crisis on the interdependence among the markets and divide the analyzed period in three sub-periods: a time of prosperity, a time of financial distress and a period of return to relative stability.