Adeel Ahmed

A contemporary landscape of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions leads to inevitable phenomena of low birthweight

The objective of the study is to empirically examine the air pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and low birth weight in Pakistan through the cointegration and error correction model over a 36-year time period, i.e., between 1975 and 2012. The study employed the Johansen cointegration technique to estimate the long-run relationship between the variables, while an error correction model was used to determine the short-run dynamics of the system. The study was limited to the following variables, including carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, GHG emissions, and low birth weight in order to manage robust data analysis. The results reveal that air pollution and GHG emissions significantly affects the low birth weight in Pakistan. In the long run, carbon dioxide emissions act as a strong contributor for low birth weight, as the coefficient value indicates there is a more elastic relationship (i.e., −1.214, p < 0.000) between them, whereas in the short run, this results has been evaporated. Subsequently, in the short run, GHG emissions have a one-to-one corresponding relationship with the low birth weight in Pakistan. Nitrous oxide emissions, both in the short and long run, have a significant and less elastic relationship (i.e., −0.517 with p < 0.001 and −0.335 with p < 0.090). Methane emissions have no significant relationship with the low birth weight in Pakistan.

Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages

This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012–2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.