Adell L. Amos

Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human–natural system models

Significance Climate change will heighten the need to anticipate water shortages worldwide. The task is daunting due to water’s variability, spatial-temporal movement, feedbacks, and other system complexities. A high-resolution coupled human–natural system model identifies how both climate change and socioeconomic drivers will alter water scarcity in future decades. The results illuminate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. These findings, and other unexpected results that may seem counterintuitive, underscore the potential value of such models for policy. Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water’s indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water’s spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human–natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society’s institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete.

Developing the Law of the River: The Integration of Law and Policy into Hydrologic and Socio-Economic Modeling Efforts in the Willamette River Basin

A legal and policy infrastructure referred to as a “law of the river” exists for every river basin in the U.S. and can be as important as natural processes in terms of managing the future of the resource. Because of the way that water law and policy have evolved in the U.S., this infrastructure involves a matrix of state and federal law that governs the choices that policymakers, end users, and agencies make.