Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno

Integração financeira internacional e crescimento econômico: uma crítica à abordagem convencional

ABSTRACT The arguments in favor of developing an institutional framework for the liberalization of capital flows among countries are based on theoretical models that underline a set of channels through which the International Financial Integration would lead to a better resource allocation, stimulating long run economic growth. The aim of this work is to make a critical evaluation of those models, emphasizing their main fragilities and the lack of empirical evidence to support them. In addition, this paper outline an alternative approach, a Post-Keynesian point of view.

Liberalização da conta de capitais e crescimento econômico: evidências de dados em painel para a América Latina

The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical analysis about the relation between Liberalization of Capital Account and Economic Growth having as study object the experience of 16 countries of Latin America with annual data for the period 1986-2000. As econometrical methodology, a dynamic model of data in panel was used in agreement with original proposal from Arellano and Bond (1991). The econometrical calculations do not corroborate the hypothesis of that the liberalization of the Capital Account would stimulate the economic growth. The results suggest an adverse effect of the liberalization of the Capital Account on the real growth gross domestic product per capita of the countries.

Padrão dos fluxos de capitais: teoria, evidência e puzzle

This paper develops a theoretical and empirical analysis on the pattern of long-term capital flows. With a sample of 105 countries and data for the period 1980-2004, the econometric methodology includes models for cross-sectional and panel data. The results presented suggest: i) inconsistency between the predictions of the neoclassical model and the observed pattern of capital flows, which characterizes the puzzle; ii) under the conventional approach, the explanations for the puzzle are differences in fundamentals between countries and imperfections in financial markets; iii) there is no evidence that differences between countries regarding the institutional environment, human capital stock, financial integration, macroeconomic policy and financial development explain the puzzle. Considering the results presented, it outlines an alternative explanation of heterodox inspiration for the pattern of capital flows.

Fluxos de capitais e crescimento econômico nos países em desenvolvimento

This paper develops an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital flows and economic growth in developing countries . Empirical evidence suggest: i) there is evidence that external savings mitigates economic growth; ii) there is no evidence that capital flows foster economic growth; iii) there is no evidence that external saving and capital flows effects on the economic growth depend on the levels of institutional development, financial development, trade openness, macroeconomic stability and human capital. One possible explanation for these results is the possibility of capital flows to developing countries lead to macroeconomic instability, financial crises and currency appreciation, with adverse effects on economic growth.

Integração financeira e crescimento econômico: teoria, evidência e política

This paper develops a theoretical and empirical analysis regarding the relationship between financial integration and long-run economic growth. Using data for a sample of 105 countries over the period 1980-2004, will be estimated growth equations specified in the form of a dynamic panel data model. The theoretical literature analysis clarifies the fragility of the theoretical framework that fundaments the hypothesis that financial integration stimulates long-run economic growth. The econometrical evidences presented do not corroborate the hypothesis that financial integration stimulates the long-run economic growth, even for countries with high levels of institutional development, of financial development, of trade openness, of macroeconomic stability and of exchange rate arrangement flexibility. These results question the rationale underlying the policy recommendations for the elimination of capital controls.

Integração financeira, poupança externa e convergência de renda: teoria e evidência

The conventional argument favoring capital controls elimination is based on the predictions from the neoclassical model: free international capital mobility would allow capital flows from country where capital is abundant to countries where capital is scarce and the outcome in a global perspective is efficient allocation of savings and income convergence. Within this perspective, financial integration would be particularly beneficial for developing countries resulting in external savings import, temporary increase in per-capita GDP growth rate and a permanent increase in the per-capita GDP level. Using data for a sample of 105 countries from 1980 to 2004 the evidences show that capitals flows from developing to developed countries and that international financial integration and external savings do not increase the conditional convergence rate.

An investigation on the role of institutions for income and growth models

This work evaluates the role of institutions on per capita income levels (cross-section) and growth models (panel data). The cross-section results suggest that there is some evidence regarding the role of institutions since all the estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant but there is evidence of weak instruments. The results from the panel growth models suggest that there is scarce evidence for the role of institutions in fostering long-run growth. In one word, there is no indication of an empirical consensus to claim that institutions have a primary role, meaning that institutions cause growth and difference in income levels.