Adrian Kavanagh

The geography of Irish voter turnout: A case study of the 2002 General Election

Abstract ‘Turnout’ is a key measure of participation in the democratic process. Specifically, it measures the proportion of eligible voters that turns out to vote on election day. Low (or declining) turnout rates are a cause of concern and are often taken as a measure of disaffection with the political decision‐making process. In Ireland, turnout in the 2002 general election confirmed a downward trend in voter participation and represented the lowest turnout since the foundation of the State. However, turnout rates vary markedly across the State. Until recently, it was not possible to examine turnout at a sufficiently detailed geographical scale to allow systematic analysis of the potential causes of such variations. This paper reports on a joint project, involving the Geary Institute, UCD and the National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis (NIRSA), NUI Maynooth, that is undertaking a comprehensive analysis of turnout in the 2002 general election at the lowest possible level of aggregation. Here,...

All Changed, Changed Utterly? Irish General Election Boundary Amendments and the 2012 Constituency Commission Report

The 2012 Constituency Commission report has recommended a reduction in the number of Dáil deputies from 166 to 158 and the number of general election constituencies from 43 to 40, while bringing about changes – some very fundamental in scope – to the majority of the existing Dáil constituencies. These changes are detailed in this article, while being placed in the context of previous electoral boundary amendments throughout the history of the Irish state and the processes employed in other states, such as the United Kingdom. The oft quoted contention that the 2012 boundary revisions are the most considerable in scope since those of 1980 is tested and proven with reference to the use of the Kavanagh index of constituency change (KICC scores), with these KICC scores also employed to highlight the regions and constituencies that have been most prone to boundary amendments over the past three decades.

Postmodernity, globalisation and nationalist conflict in the former Yugoslavia

During the 1990s, several of the conflicts that have demanded most media attention have been associated with the disintegration of the Yugoslav Federation. A number of attempts have been made to outline the main causes of these, but these causal factors remain difficult to describe definitively, largely owing to the complexity of the post‐Yugoslav political landscape. This paper studies the validity of employing a postmodern paradigm for investigating the conflicts in former Yugoslavia, as well as other current conflicts, arguing that the present cultural and philosophical context has to be addressed. After an outline of some of the key aspects of postmodernity, the focus centres on the importance of the media and the postmodern perspective on the issue of the nation state. Key theories related to postmodern conflict, with relation to economic and cultural factors, are outlined. These are evaluated as regards their applicability to the Yugoslav conflicts and ‐ by extension ‐ to all future wars in the post...

THE CONSTITUENCY COMMISSION

The lead up to the next general election began on 7 January 2004, with the publication of the Constituency Commission report on recom- mended Dail constituency boundaries for that election. Differential levels of population change between 1996 and 2002, with particularly high levels of population increase in eastern Ireland, ensured that considerable changes to boundaries would be involved. Seat losses were expected in Cork, the North West and North Midlands area, and the North City constituencies in Dublin. Seat gains were expected for the commuter-belt counties of Kildare and Meath, as well as for the rapidly growing western suburbs of Dublin. The decisions of the commission were of great interest to the different political parties, as well as to individual politicians for whom a boundary change might greatly impact on their future electoral prospects. The report was also likely to have a particular bearing on certain areas and their representation levels, as well as their levels of political engagement and participation.

The 2005 Meath and Kildare North by‐elections

On Friday 11 March 2005 voting for the Meath and Kildare North by-elections took place between 7.00am and 10.00pm. These elections were caused by the resignations of Charlie McCreevy, to take up the post of the Irish EU Commissioner, and John Bruton, to take up the post of EU Ambassador to the United States. These elections were marked by the continuance of a pattern of poor electoral performances by the government parties, and also by the continuance of a pattern of lower turnout levels relative to those in previous by-elections. For Fianna Fáil these results were particularly disappointing, given that these by-elections, particularly in the Meath constituency, offered the realistic prospect of the first government win in a byelection since Noel Treacy’s success in the Galway East by-election in 1982. The by-elections marked a political breakthrough for Independent councillor, Catherine Murphy, in the Kildare North constituency, while the victory of Shane McEntee in Meath was important for Fine Gael and Labour’s prospects of forming an alternative government after the next general election. By-elections are perhaps the best example of second-order elections, given that there is usually little at stake in these elections unless the result of the election proves to be necessary to the survival of the government. Second-order elections are often marked by lower levels of support for the government parties, relative to their support levels in first-order, or general elections. This has especially proven to be the case in the past two decades, in which the only government candidates to win seats in byelection in almost four decades have been Clement Coughlan in Donegal South West in 1980 and Noel Treacy in Galway West in 1982. Government successes in by-elections were, however, more frequent in the decades prior to the 1980s. In the 1970s, by-elections were won by a number of government candidates. These included Fianna Fáil’s Sean Sherwin in Dublin South West, Patrick Delap in Donegal-Leitrim in 1970, and Gene Fitzgerald in Cork Mid West in 1972, Fine Gael’s Brendan Toal in Monaghan in 1973 and Enda Kenny in Mayo West in 1975, and Labour’s Brendan Halligan in 1976. The contrasting fortunes of Fianna Fáil in by-elections held during the 27th and 28th Dáils (elections held between 1994 and 2001) further illustrate this

The Irish Government’s Diaspora Strategy: Towards a Care Agenda

This chapter places under critical scrutiny the Irish government’s emerging diaspora engagement strategy. It brings to the fore the ethics of recent efforts by the Irish state to develop new relationships with “the Global Irish.” Resisting frameworks which construe diaspora engagement strategies as biopolitical acts which reduce “diaspora” to a governmental category, we propose an alternative framing which mobilises feminist care ethics and which strives to nurture and fortify relationships built upon mutuality, reciprocity and shared mission. We ruminate on the meaning and implications of recasting the Irish diaspora engagement in terms of a care agenda.

The May 2014 Local and European Elections in the Republic of Ireland: Second Order or Austerity Voting?

This article reviews the radical changes in voter turnout and political support levels evident at the May 2014 Local and European electoral contests in the Republic of Ireland. This analysis considers the degree to which such trends might be reflective of the classic second-order election model. But it also considers whether something deeper may be at play here, shaped by the dramatic political changes in Ireland that have accompanied the period of financial austerity following the onset of the European debt crisis in the 2007–08 period. These contests could prove to be more austerity elections rather than classic second-order contests. Support for the more mainstream political parties (Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour) has collapsed over the past few years. This suggests that the May 2014 election results could reflect a more radical transformation of the Irish political system, rather the temporary, mid-term, decline in government popularity that characterises the second-order election model.

An evolving political landscape: Political reform, boundary changes and the 2014 local elections

Abstract This paper reviews the May 2014 local election contests in the Republic of Ireland, while also offering a brief overview of the contests in Northern Ireland. These local elections took place in the context of radical changes to local government structures on both sides of the border – changes which would frame the types of choices open to voters at the May 2014 contests. The new – and generally larger – constituency areas opened up opportunity spaces for new candidates (including new female candidates) to participate in local electoral politics, although these opportunities, in turn, were very much framed by geography. The overall reduction in local representation levels in rural areas in the Republic of Ireland meant that incumbency factors acted as significant brakes on the entry of new candidates in these areas. The radically changing political landscape associated with the era of austerity politics saw a major swing against the government parties in the Republic of Ireland, with notable gains made by Sinn Féin and a number of other anti-establishment parties and groupings. These changes have brought about the formation of new alliances to control different local authorities, which, in turn, have posed an increasing set of challenges in terms of the governance of such councils, as evident in a number of conflicts over council budgets in the winter of 2014.