Adrian M. Tompkins

A Prognostic Parameterization for the Subgrid-Scale Variability of Water Vapor and Clouds in Large-Scale Models and Its Use to Diagnose Cloud Cover

A parameterization for the horizontal subgrid-scale variability of water vapor and cloud condensate is introduced, which is used to diagnose cloud fraction in the spirit of statistically based cloud cover parameterizations. High-resolution cloud-resolving model data from tropical deep convective scenarios were used to justify the choice of probability density function (PDF). The PDF selected has the advantage of being bounded above and below, avoiding the complications of negative or infinite water mixing ratios, and can give both negatively and positively skewed functions as well as symmetric Gaussian-like bell-shaped curves, without discrete transitions, and is mathematically straightforward to implement. A development from previous statistical parameterizations is that the new scheme is prognostic, with processes such as deep convection, turbulence, and microphysics directly affecting the distribution of higher-order moments of variance and skewness. The scheme is able to represent the growth and decay of cirrus cloud decks and also the creation of cloud in clear sky or breakup of an overcast cloud deck by boundary layer turbulence. After introducing the mathematical framework, results using the parameterization in a climate model are shown to illustrate its behavior. The parameterization is shown to reduce cloud cover biases almost globally, with a marked improvement in the stratocumulus regions in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Cloudnet: Continuous Evaluation of Cloud Profiles in Seven Operational Models Using Ground-Based Observations

Cloud fraction, liquid and ice water contents derived from long-term radar, lidar and microwave radiometer data are systematically compared to models to quantify and improve their performance.

Organization of Tropical Convection in Low Vertical Wind Shears: The Role of Water Vapor

Abstract A modeling study is conducted to gain insight into the factors that control the intensity and organization of tropical convection, and in particular to examine if organization occurs in the absence of factors such as vertical wind shear or underlying sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. The control experiment integrates a cloud-resolving model for 15 days using a 3D domain exceeding 1000 km in length, with no imposed winds, and horizontally uniform SST and forcing for convection. After 2 days of random activity, the convection organizes into clusters with dimensions of approximately 200 km. Convective systems propagate through the clusters at speeds of 2–3 m s−1, while the clusters themselves propagate at minimal speeds of around 0.5 m s−1. Examining the thermodynamic structure of the model domain, it is found that the convective free bands separating the clusters are very dry throughout the troposphere, and due to virtual temperature effects, are correspondingly warmer in the lower tropospher...

Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: Forward modeling

[1] This paper presents the aerosol modeling now part of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It includes new prognostic variables for the mass of sea salt, dust, organic matter and black carbon, and sulphate aerosols, interactive with both the dynamics and the physics of the model. It details the various parameterizations used in the IFS to account for the presence of tropospheric aerosols. Details are given of the various formulations and data sets for the sources of the different aerosols and of the parameterizations describing their sinks. Comparisons of monthly mean and daily aerosol quantities like optical depths against satellite and surface observations are presented. The capability of the forecast model to simulate aerosol events is illustrated through comparisons of dust plume events. The ECMWF IFS provides a good description of the horizontal distribution and temporal variability of the main aerosol types. The forecastonly model described here generally gives the total aerosol optical depth within 0.12 of the relevant observations and can therefore provide the background trajectory information for the aerosol assimilation system described in part 2 of this paper.

Organization of Tropical Convection in Low Vertical Wind Shears: The Role of Cold Pools

Abstract An investigation is conducted to document the role convectively generated cold pools play in determining the spatial organization of tropical deep convection. Using a high-resolution cloud-resolving model, the evolution of cold pools produced by deep convection is examined, in the situation of limited large-scale wind shear, and a homogeneous underlying sea surface temperature. Ignoring the cold pools resulting from multiple deep convective events, the mean model cold pool attained a minimum temperature and water vapor mixing ratio depression of 1 K and 1.5 g kg−1, respectively; a horizontal velocity increase of 4.8 m s−1; and the latent and sensible heat fluxes are increased by a factor of 1.9 and 2.6, respectively. The cold pools had a mean lifetime of approximately 2.5 h and attained maximum radii ranging from 3 to 18 km, with a mean of 8.6 km. Taking the organization of convection into account, these figures are consistent with observational studies of convective wakes. The composite cold poo...

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

Significance This study is the first multimalaria model intercomparison exercise. This is carried out to estimate the impact of future climate change and population scenarios on malaria transmission at global scale and to provide recommendations for the future. Our results indicate that future climate might become more suitable for malaria transmission in the tropical highland regions. However, other important socioeconomic factors such as land use change, population growth and urbanization, migration changes, and economic development will have to be accounted for in further details for future risk assessments. Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

ASSIMILATION AND MODELING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN THE ECMWF FORECASTING SYSTEM

Several new types of satellite instrument will provide improved measurements of Earths hydrological cycle and the humidity of the atmosphere. In an effort to make the best possible use of these data, the modeling and assimilation of humidity, clouds, and precipitation are currently the subjects of a comprehensive research program at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Impacts on weather prediction and climate reanalysis can be expected. The preparations for cloud and rain assimilation within ECMWFs four-dimensional variational data assimilation system include the development of linearized moist physics, the development of fast radiative transfer codes for cloudy and precipitating conditions, and a reformulation of the humidity analysis scheme. Results of model validations against in situ moisture data are presented, indicating generally good agreement—often to within the absolute calibration accuracy of the measurements. Evidence is also presented of shortcomings in ECMWFs h...

Monthly forecast of the madden-julian oscillation using a coupled GCM

Abstract A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its skill in predicting a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event. Results show that the model is skillful in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to about 14 days, but the amplitude of the MJO is damped after a few days of integration. In addition, the model has some deficiencies in propagating the MJO through the Maritime Continent. The same experiment framework is used to quantify the impacts of changing the model physics, the ocean model, the atmospheric horizontal resolution, and the initial conditions on the skill of the monthly forecasting system. Results show that there is a scope for extending the skillful range of the operational monthly forecasting system to predict the evolution of the MJO by at least a week. This is achieved by using an improved c...

THE JET2000 PROJECT Aircraft Observations of the African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves

Abstract Scientific background and motivation for the JET2000 aircraft observing campaign that took place in West Africa during the last week of August 2000 are presented. The Met Research Flight C130 aircraft made two flights along the African easterly jet (AEJ) between Sal, Cape Verde, and Niamey, Niger, and two “box” flights that twice crossed the AEJ at longitudes near Niamey. Dropsondes were released at approximately 0.5°–10° intervals. The two box flights also included low-level flights that sampled north–south variations in boundary layer properties in the baroclinic zone beneath the AEJ. Preliminary results and analysis of the JET2000 period including some of the aircraft data are presented. The JET2000 campaign occurred during a relatively dry period in the Niamey region and, perhaps consistent with this, was also associated with less coherent easterly wave activity compared to other periods in the season. Meridional cross sections of the AEJ on 28 and 29 August (after the passage of a mesoscale ...

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980–2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.