Adrian Pincombe

Scoping a flexible deployment framework using adversarial scenario analysis

To aid with Australian Army deployment planning we propose a flexible deployment concept developed using adversarial scenario analysis. This novel technique begins with a simple scenario and a core strategy. Iteratively, the scenario is modified to defeat the existing strategy and the strategy is altered to cope. This process results in the deployed force being structured as a set of cohesive functional teams that provide emotional support to their members, suffer stress at different rates and are able to be rotated independently of each other. An accumulator model of deployment stress is assumed and continuous time-in-theatre is minimised subject to realistic constraints. The concept is focused on stable long term commitments to small wars, insurgencies and peacekeeping operations within four time-zones of the deployment source and with forward bases near usable airfields. To plan specific deployments, the same process could be expanded upon with appropriate detail.