Adrián Regos

Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in mediterranean forests

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

Rural abandoned landscapes and bird assemblages: winners and losers in the rewilding of a marginal mountain area (NW Spain)

Abstract In many regions of Europe, large-scale socio-economic changes have led to the abandonment of rural activities and a gradual takeover of natural vegetation. It is important to assess the relative positive and negative effects of land abandonment on particular areas where the low-intensity farming is no longer socially or economically viable in order to quantify the potential conservation costs and benefits of a rewilding as a land-use management policy. During the period 2000–2010, we studied the land-use/land-cover changes in an abandoned mountain landscape (Galicia, NW Spain) and evaluated the effects on breeding bird occurrence and distribution. For this purpose, we analysed remotely sensed data-derived maps in combination with data obtained from bird censuses carried out in 2000 and 2010 at both landscape and census plot scale. The results revealed a gradient of change from bare ground and open shrubland to closed shrubland and woodland. Thirteen shrubland and forest bird species showed a significant increase (including species of conservation concern such as Turtle Dove, Dartford Warbler and Western Bonelli’s Warbler), while four ecotone and open-habitat species (e.g. Red-backed Shrike) showed a significant negative trend. In conclusion, rewilding appears to have overall positive effects on biodiversity and should be considered by policy makers as alternative land-use strategy in marginal mountain areas, particularly if they have been historically affected by wildfires. Fire management aimed at favouring the creation of small burned areas in progressively closed landscapes derived from rewilding may be a complementary alternative to maintain open habitats in these areas.

Synergies Between Forest Biomass Extraction for Bioenergy and Fire Suppression in Mediterranean Ecosystems: Insights from a Storyline-and-Simulation Approach

Increases in fire impacts over many regions of the world have led to large-scale investments in fire-suppression efforts. There is increasing recognition that biomass extraction for energy purposes may become an important forest-management practice in fire-prone ecosystems. However, at present, very few studies have explicitly assessed biomass extraction as a fuel treatment at landscape scale. Here, we use a landscape fire-succession model in Catalonia (NE Spain) to quantitatively evaluate the potential effects of a biomass extraction-based strategy on essential fire-regime attributes after considering different levels of fire suppression, biomass extraction intensity, and spatial allocation of such efforts. Our simulations indicated that the effectiveness (area suppressed in relation to expected area to burn) at suppressing wildfires was determined by extraction intensity, spatial allocation of the extraction effort, and the fire-suppression levels involved. Indeed, the highest suppressed-area values were found with lower harvesting intensities, especially under high fire-suppression capabilities and strategies focused on bioenergy goals (figures close to 0.7). However, the leverage (area suppressed in relation to managed area) was higher when the treatments were based on the fire-prevention strategy and focused on high-fire-risk areas (up to 0.45) than with treatment designed for energy reasons (lower than 0.15). We conclude that biomass extraction for energy purposes has the potential to induce changes in fire regimes and can therefore be considered a cost-effective landscape-level fuel-reduction treatment. However, our results suggest that large-scale biomass extraction may be needed if significant changes in fire regimes are to be expected.

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community-level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, factors other than climate may also critically influence distribution of species and assembly of biological communities. The aim of this paper was to study how fire-vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely-used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constraints predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire-vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire-vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire-vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process-based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Overall increases in the CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI thus strongly depends on complex interactions between climate change and fire-vegetation dynamics. Their potential impacts on bird communities can be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings shed light on the need of an explicit incorporation of these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast the impact of climate change in dynamic ecosystems. In fire-prone systems, wildfire management and land use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.

Monitoring protected areas from space: A multi-temporal assessment using raptors as biodiversity surrogates

Monitoring protected areas (PAs) is essential for systematic evaluation of their effectiveness in terms of habitat protection, preservation and representativeness. This study illustrates how the use of species distribution models that combine remote sensing data and information about biodiversity surrogates can contribute to develop a systematic protocol for monitoring PAs. In particular, we assessed the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 (N2000) network, for conserving and preserving the representativeness of seven raptor species in a highly-dynamic landscape in northwest Spain between 2001 and 2014. We also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the N2000 network by using the total area under protection as a proxy for conservation costs. Overall, the N2000 network was found to poorly represent the habitats of the raptor species. Despite the low representativeness, this network showed a high degree of effectiveness due to increased overall habitat availability for generalist and forest specialist species between 2001 and 2014. Nevertheless, additional protected areas should be established in the near future to increase their representativeness, and thus ensure the protection of open-habitat specialist species and their priority habitats. In addition, proactive conservation measures in natural and semi-natural ecosystems (in particular, montane heathlands) will be essential for long-term protection of Montagu’s harrier (species listed in the Annex I of the Bird Directive), and thus complying with the current European Environmental Legislation. This study sheds light on how the development and application of new protected area indices based on the combined use of freely-available satellite data and species distribution models may contribute substantially to the cost-efficiency of the PA monitoring systems, and to the ‘Fitness Check’ process of EU Nature Directives.

The contribution of Earth observation technologies to the reporting obligations of the Habitats Directive and Natura 2000 network in a protected wetland

Background Wetlands are highly productive systems that supply a host of ecosystem services and benefits. Nonetheless, wetlands have been drained and filled to provide sites for building houses and roads and for establishing farmland, with an estimated worldwide loss of 64–71% of wetland systems since 1900. In Europe, the Natura 2000 network is the cornerstone of current conservation strategies. Every six years, Member States must report on implementation of the European Habitats Directive. The present study aims to illustrate how Earth observation (EO) technologies can contribute to the reporting obligations of the Habitats Directive and Natura 2000 network in relation to wetland ecosystems. Methods We analysed the habitat changes that occurred in a protected wetland (in NW Spain), 13 years after its designation as Natura 2000 site (i.e., between 2003 and 2016). For this purpose, we analysed optical multispectral bands and water-related and vegetation indices derived from data acquired by Landsat 7 TM, ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI sensors. To quantify the uncertainty arising from the algorithm used in the classification procedure and its impact on the change analysis, we compared the habitat change estimates obtained using 10 different classification algorithms and two ensemble classification approaches (majority and weighted vote). Results The habitat maps derived from the ensemble approaches showed an overall accuracy of 94% for the 2003 data (Kappa index of 0.93) and of 95% for the 2016 data (Kappa index of 0.94). The change analysis revealed important temporal dynamics between 2003 and 2016 for the habitat classes identified in the study area. However, these changes depended on the classification algorithm used. The habitat maps obtained from the two ensemble classification approaches showed a reduction in habitat classes dominated by salt marshes and meadows (24.6–26.5%), natural and semi-natural grasslands (25.9–26.5%) or sand dunes (20.7–20.9%) and an increase in forest (31–34%) and reed bed (60.7–67.2%) in the study area. Discussion This study illustrates how EO–based approaches might be particularly useful to help (1) managers to reach decisions in relation to conservation, (2) Member States to comply with the requirements of the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), and (3) the European Commission to monitor the conservation status of the natural habitat types of community interest listed in Annex I of the Directive. Nonetheless, the uncertainty arising from the large variety of classification methods used may prevent local managers from basing their decisions on EO data. Our results shed light on how different classification algorithms may provide very different quantitative estimates, especially for water-dependent habitats. Our findings confirm the need to account for this uncertainty by applying ensemble classification approaches, which improve the accuracy and stability of remote sensing image classification.

Assessing the temporal transferability of raptor distribution models: Implications for conservation

The aim of this study was to assess the temporal transferability of species distribution models (SDMs) and their potential implications for bird conservation. We quantified the loss and fragmentation of Montagu’s Harrier Circus pygargus and Common Kestrel Falco tinnunculus habitats over 13 years (2001–2014) in a highly dynamic landscape in north-western Spain. For this purpose, priority habitats for the target species were modelled at four different spatial scales using an ensemble forecasting framework. To explore the temporal transferability of our ensemble predictions, the models were back-projected to the land cover conditions in 2001 and evaluated using historical occurrence data. In addition, models calibrated with historical data were projected to the land cover conditions in 2014 and evaluated using updated occurrence data. Changes in availability and connectivity of suitable habitats between both years were estimated at four spatial scales from a set of widely-used indicators. SDMs showed a good predictive accuracy but with limited temporal transferability due to changes in the species-habitat relationships between 2001 and 2014. The results showed a decrease in the avaliability of suitable habitats of 33.4% and 47.7% for Montagu’s Harrier and Common Kestrel, respectively; with the subsequent increase in their fragmentation. However, our estimates were found to be strongly dependent on the scale of analysis and model transferability. Changes in habitat availability and connectivity ranged from -48% to +54% for Montagu’s Harrier, and from +116% to +5.6% for Common Kestrel. We call for caution when using SDMs beyond the model calibration time period to guide bird conservation. This is especially important for raptors, often characterised by low population sizes and large home ranges, and particularly sensitive to unstable, highly dynamic environmental conditions. In light of these results, specific, long-standing monitoring protocols remain essential to ensure accurate modelling performance and reliable future projections.