Afaq Ahmed Siddiqui

Determination of Weibull Parameter by Four Numerical Methods and Prediction of Wind Speed in Jiwani (Balochistan)

In this paper we determine the Weibull parameters (k and c) using four methods. Method of Moments, Empirical Method, Energy Pattern Method and Maximum likelihood Method have been employed to determine and compare the values of k and c. The daily wind speed data (obtained from Karachi Meteorological office) of Jiwani (Balochistan, Pakistan) town over a period of 10 years (1998-2007) is used to estimate the Weibull parameters. The mean wind speed was predicted using k and c by four methods. A significant agreement is found in measured and predicted mean wind speed.

Comparison of Wind Energy Potential for Coastal Locations: Pasni and Gwadar

A comparative study for the wind power density of the two investigated coastal sites viz. Pasni and Gwadar is presented in this paper. Pasni and Gwadar are located along the coast belt of Balochistan in Arabian Sea. Investigations are performed on daily wind speed data recorded at 12:00 UTC, obtained from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for a period five years, i.e. from 2003 to 2007. The recorded wind speed data distribution is fitted to the Weibull distribution function described by two fitting parameters i.e. scale (c) and shape (k). The Weibull parameters are numerically calculated using the Method of Moment (MoM). Monthly mean wind speeds for the two stations are predicted and wind power densities are calculated for the two stations. Comparison of the wind power densities of the investigated sites reveals a higher wind energy yield for Pasni as compared to Gwadar. The highest wind power density is predicted for the month of May.

Use of Geometric Mean in Bioequivalence Trials

Bioequivalence data often do not follow the normality assumption on the linear (original) scale, therefore in that situation, the use of the logarithmic transformation is recommended. In the bioequivalence analysis, confusion arises about the use of geometric mean ratio when the logarithmic transformation is recommended by the regulatory authorities. The purpose of this research paper is to clear this confusion. Different average bioequivalence criteria are also reviewed in this paper.

Synergistic anticonvulsant effects of pregabalin and amlodipine on acute seizure model of epilepsy in mice

Status epilepticus is a life threatening neurological medical emergency. It may cause serious damage to the brain and even death in many cases if not treated properly. There is limited choice of drugs for the short term and long term management of status epilepticus and the dugs recommended for status epilepticus possess various side effects. The present study was designed to investigate synergistic anticonvulsant effects of pregabalin with amlodipine on acute seizure model of epilepsy in mice. Pentylenetetrazole was used to induce acute seizures which mimic status epilepticus. Pregabalin and amlodipine were used in combination to evaluate synergistic anti-seizure effects on acute seizure model of epilepsy in mice. Diazepam and valproate were used as reference dugs. The acute anti-convulsive activity of pregabalin with amlodipine was evaluated in vivo by the chemical induced seizures and their anti-seizure effects were compared with pentylenetetrazole, reference drugs and to their individual effects. The anti-seizure effects of tested drugs were recorded in seconds on seizure characteristics such as latency of onset of threshold seizures, rearing and fallings and Hind limbs tonic extensions. The seizure protection and mortality to the animals exhibited by the drugs were recorded in percentage. Combination regimen of pregabalin with amlodipine exhibited dose dependent significant synergistic anticonvulsant effects on acute seizures which were superior to their individual effects and equivalent to reference drugs.

Prediction and Identification of Covariates of Intra-cerebral Hemorrhage

The authors investigate the effects of clinical covariates upon the outcome of Intra-cerebral Hemorrhage (ICH) patients by applying a discriminate model of logistic regression. About 985 patients’s data with ICH have been collected using the International classification of diseases; ninth revision codes are also included. Diagnostic codes (434 for stroke and 431 for ICH) were used to identify patients and confirmed by neuro-imaging of the patients using CT scan and MRI. A univariate analysis of 88 covariates was undertaken and 46 of them reached statistical significance at an acceptable level of p < 0.05. The multivariable analysis exhibited a significant negative relationship between ICH and hypertension. The improvement among ICH patients having hypertension was found to be 0.5 with the p=0.001, ARR=0.5, 95% C.I. 0.3 – 0.8. The development among ICH patients using antihypertensive medicine was 1.3 with p = 0.021, ARR=1.3, 95% C.I. 1.0 – 1.6. Thus present study manifested that ICH has strong relationship with use of antihypertensive medicine. The rate of perfection in the patients physiological conditions using antihypertensive medicine at the time of discharge was 2.9 times acquiring p < 0.001, ARR=2.9, 95% C.I. 2.7 – 3.2 as compared to those who could not use antihypertensive medicine. The change in ARR from 1.3 to 2.9 times depict that the exercise of antihypertensive medicine and ICH outcome are positively associated. The fluctuations in ARR of hypertensive range of systolic blood pressure (SBP) also indicate that the blood pressure range and ICH outcome are negatively correlated. The neurological symptomoatology, indistinct speech and double vision are important factors of proposed models. Moreover, a clear decrease was found in mental status from normal to coma in most suitable model. Surgery is an important part of recovery, and estimated that the improvement among the ICH patients, who were treated under surgical aspects, was 1.4 times with significant p-value in the best models. The complication of pneumonia during treatment of ICH subjects has highly significant showing negative correlation with the given outcome variable. The current model has 89.3% area under the curve with sensitivity (82.6%), specificity (81.3%) and p-value (0.308). This indicates that the constructed model bestows the well performance of the ICH outcome and the model is considered as excellent.

Efficacy of Metronidazole in Combination with Amoxicillin and Doxycycline in Adult Periodontitis

Abstract: Objective : Periodontal diseases are amongst most prevalent diseases in the world. They are caused by poor oral hygiene, accumulation of dental plaque and virulent putative pathogens on the teeth and gums Systemic antibiotics are used as adjuncts for the treatment of this infective disease. The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of two antibiotic drug combinations i.e., Metronidazole with Amoxicillin and Metronidazole with Doxycycline in patients with adult periodontitis. Method : 50 patients were divided in two groups. They were given fixed doses for 7 days to patients with Adult Periodontitis. Readings were taken before treatment and two weeks prior to the treatment. The result was evaluated on the basis of periodontal Pocket depth, Bleeding Index and Mobility Index. The readings were taken using Periodontal Probe, dental Mirror and dental Explorer. Result : There was significant reduction (p<0.01) observed in periodontal pocket depth and Bleeding Index incase of Doxycycline, Metronidazole combination in comparison to Amoxicillin, Metronidazole combination. There was slight change observed on Mobility Index. Conclusion : The study suggested that Doxycycline and Metronidazole should be preferably given for Adult Periodontitis.

A Dynamical Study of Risk Factors in Intracerebral Hemorrhage using Multivariate Approach

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of clinical covariates to the outcome of Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH) patients in terms of best fitted and excellent discriminate model of binary response variable. Clinical data of 985 patients with ICH have collected using the International classification of diseases, Ninth revision codes. The diagnosis of ICH was confirmed by neuro-imaging in all patients. Univariate analysis revealed that out of 88 covariates 46 were found to be significant (p<0.05). The multivariable analysis using multiple logistic regressions, exhibited a significant negative relationship between ICH and hypertension. The improvement among ICH patients having hypertension was 0.5 (p=0.001, ARR=0.5, 95% C.I. 0.3 – 0.8). The improvement among ICH patients using antihypertensive medicine was 1.3 (p = 0.016, ARR=1.3, 95% C.I. 1.1 – 1.5). Thus present study showed that ICH has strong relationship with use of antihypertensive medicine. The improvement of patients who were using antihypertensive medicine at the time of discharge was 3.0 times (p < 0.0001, ARR=3.0, 95% C.I. 2.7 – 3.2) as compared to those who did not use antihypertensive medicine. The change in ARR from 1.3 to 3.0 times shows that the use of antihypertensive medicine and ICH outcome variable are positively associated. The change in ARR of hypertensive range of SBP also indicates that the blood pressure range and ICH outcome variable are negatively associated. The neurological symptomatology, slurred speech and double vision are important factors of proposed statistical models. Moreover, a clear decrease was found in mental status from normal to coma in applicable model. Surgery is an important part of recovery, and estimated that the improvement among the ICH patients, who were treated with surgery, was 1.4 times with significant p-value in best fitted models. The complication of pneumonia during treatment of ICH subjects has highly significant negative association with outcome variable. Present Model has 0.892 area under the curve with sensitivity (0.852), specificity (0.793) and p-value (0.204). This indicates that the model gives the impression to fit quite well for predictive performance of the ICH outcome variable and the model is excellent model.

Exploratory Assessment of In Situ Measurements of Radioactivity for Single Source

Radioactive measurements in the decay process of any radioactive sample can be predicted by radioactive-decay law. This predication is based over its average behavior. In actual practice, the radioactive measurements show fluctuations about the average value. For any radioactive sample, there is an exact number which disintegrates in any given unit of time fluctuates around the average value. In counting applications, it is important to estimate this fluctuation because it indicates the repeatability of results of a measurement. This will identify it by using periodogram analysis that depicts the periodicity in the radioactive decay of the given sample of Americium-241. Statistical distributions that the given sample followed with goodness-of-fit tests are examined. Maximum-Likelihood Estimator (MLE) has been used to find the population parameters. The randomness in radioactive decay has been verified by non-parametric method. These statistical analyses are based over the amount of internal fluctuation in the given radioactive source that is consistent with the predictions obtained. These measurements are obtained by measuring the decay of 300 counts per 10 sec. of Americium-241 using a Geiger Muller (GM) Counter in the teaching laboratory, at the Department of Physics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.

Stochastic Modeling of Solar Flare Duration at Pakistan Atmospheric Region

Energy incident from the Sun is the chief deriving force responsible for all physical process existing in our terrestrial system. It is interesting to note that solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation created ozone in our stratosphere by the dissociation of O 2 molecules. On the other hand, the streams of solar particle flux deplete ozone by creating NO x in our atmosphere. It is therefore, an important task to quantify the contribution of solar activity on OLD with the scientific assurance. In this communication the stochastic models of solar flare duration as solar activity have been investigated. Digisonde, at SUPARCO, HQ one of the ground based device provide us the record of solar flare duration by investigating the ionosphere disturbance. The behavior of solar activity have accomplished by the stochastic modeling in addition to their residual analysis. Since there are two major kinds of flares, it is necessary to establish what the different parametric configurations that causes their difference and their behavior in solar terrestrial relationship. Evidences suggest that gradual flares may become serious threat for our atmospheric and terrestrial disturbances. Their frequency most closely related with high activity periods. However sometimes this could be accomplished in low activity period as well. Hence, it is quite relevant to study theoretical and observational aspects of both high and low activity periods. The data recorded from March 1979 to March 2006 was consisting of mixed flares.

Consequences of Drug Abuse among Female and Male Population of Karachi: A Statistical Surveyed Approach

Drugs are chemicals. Different drugs, because of their chemical structures, can affect the body in different ways. The most obvious effects of drug abuse which are manifested in the individuals include ill health, sickness and ultimately, death. The social life is also not spared by the hazardous impacts of the problem. Whereas the load at health department is increased, rise in crime rate is also a perilous effect faced by the society related to the growth of abusers in the country. The following study highlights the different effects that can influence male and female drug abusers to get rid of their drug misuse habits. Abusers age, level of awareness about drugs adverse effects, their encounters to health ailments including the life threatening infection HIV, and involvement in crimes were included in the survey which was carried out in Karachi in order to assess the magnitude of this problem.