Agbessi Amouzou

Stillbirths: Rates, risk factors, and acceleration towards 2030

An estimated 2.6 million third trimester stillbirths occurred in 2015 (uncertainty range 2.4-3.0 million). The number of stillbirths has reduced more slowly than has maternal mortality or mortality in children younger than 5 years, which were explicitly targeted in the Millennium Development Goals. The Every Newborn Action Plan has the target of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births in every country by 2030. 94 mainly high-income countries and upper middle-income countries have already met this target, although with noticeable disparities. At least 56 countries, particularly in Africa and in areas affected by conflict, will have to more than double present progress to reach this target. Most (98%) stillbirths are in low-income and middle-income countries. Improved care at birth is essential to prevent 1.3 million (uncertainty range 1.2-1.6 million) intrapartum stillbirths, end preventable maternal and neonatal deaths, and improve child development. Estimates for stillbirth causation are impeded by various classification systems, but for 18 countries with reliable data, congenital abnormalities account for a median of only 7.4% of stillbirths. Many disorders associated with stillbirths are potentially modifiable and often coexist, such as maternal infections (population attributable fraction: malaria 8.0% and syphilis 7.7%), non-communicable diseases, nutrition and lifestyle factors (each about 10%), and maternal age older than 35 years (6.7%). Prolonged pregnancies contribute to 14.0% of stillbirths. Causal pathways for stillbirth frequently involve impaired placental function, either with fetal growth restriction or preterm labour, or both. Two-thirds of newborns have their births registered. However, less than 5% of neonatal deaths and even fewer stillbirths have death registration. Records and registrations of all births, stillbirths, neonatal, and maternal deaths in a health facility would substantially increase data availability. Improved data alone will not save lives but provide a way to target interventions to reach more than 7000 women every day worldwide who experience the reality of stillbirth.

Reduction in child mortality in Niger: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

BACKGROUND The Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) is to reduce by two-thirds the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years, between 1990 and 2015. The 2012 Countdown profile shows that Niger has achieved far greater reductions in child mortality and gains in coverage for interventions in child survival than neighbouring countries in west Africa. Countdown therefore invited Niger to do an in-depth analysis of their child survival programme between 1998 and 2009. METHODS We developed new estimates of child and neonatal mortality for 1998-2009 using a 2010 household survey. We recalculated coverage indicators using eight nationally-representative surveys for that period, and documented maternal, newborn, and child health programmes and policies since 1995. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the child lives saved in 2009. FINDINGS The mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined significantly from 226 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 207-246) in 1998 to 128 deaths (117-140) in 2009, an annual rate of decline of 5·1%. Stunting prevalence decreased slightly in children aged 24-35 months, and wasting declined by about 50% with the largest decreases in children younger than 2 years. Coverage increased greatly for most child survival interventions in this period. Results from LiST show that about 59,000 lives were saved in children younger than 5 years in 2009, attributable to the introduction of insecticide-treated bednets (25%); improvements in nutritional status (19%); vitamin A supplementation (9%); treatment of diarrhoea with oral rehydration salts and zinc, and careseeking for fever, malaria, or childhood pneumonia (22%); and vaccinations (11%). INTERPRETATION Government policies supporting universal access, provision of free health care for pregnant women and children, and decentralised nutrition programmes permitted Niger to decrease child mortality at a pace that exceeds that needed to meet the MDG 4. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Bank; Governments of Australia, Canada, Norway, Sweden, and the UK; and UNICEF.

Count every newborn; A measurement improvement roadmap for coverage data

BackgroundThe Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP), launched in 2014, aims to end preventable newborn deaths and stillbirths, with national targets of ≤12 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births and ≤12 stillbirths per 1000 total births by 2030. This requires ambitious improvement of the data on care at birth and of small and sick newborns, particularly to track coverage, quality and equity.MethodsIn a multistage process, a matrix of 70 indicators were assessed by the Every Newborn steering group. Indicators were graded based on their availability and importance to ENAP, resulting in 10 core and 10 additional indicators. A consultation process was undertaken to assess the status of each ENAP core indicator definition, data availability and measurement feasibility. Coverage indicators for the specific ENAP treatment interventions were assigned task teams and given priority as they were identified as requiring the most technical work. Consultations were held throughout.ResultsENAP published 10 core indicators plus 10 additional indicators. Three core impact indicators (neonatal mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, stillbirth rate) are well defined, with future efforts needed to focus on improving data quantity and quality. Three core indicators on coverage of care for all mothers and newborns (intrapartum/skilled birth attendance, early postnatal care, essential newborn care) have defined contact points, but gaps exist in measuring content and quality of the interventions. Four core (antenatal corticosteroids, neonatal resuscitation, treatment of serious neonatal infections, kangaroo mother care) and one additional coverage indicator for newborns at risk or with complications (chlorhexidine cord cleansing) lack indicator definitions or data, especially for denominators (population in need). To address these gaps, feasible coverage indicator definitions are presented for validity testing. Measurable process indicators to help monitor health service readiness are also presented. A major measurement gap exists to monitor care of small and sick babies, yet signal functions could be tracked similarly to emergency obstetric care.ConclusionsThe ENAP Measurement Improvement Roadmap (2015-2020) outlines tools to be developed (e.g., improved birth and death registration, audit, and minimum perinatal dataset) and actions to test, validate and institutionalise proposed coverage indicators. The roadmap presents a unique opportunity to strengthen routine health information systems, crosslinking these data with civil registration and vital statistics and population-based surveys. Real measurement change requires intentional transfer of leadership to countries with the greatest disease burden and will be achieved by working with centres of excellence and existing networks.

Quality of sick child care delivered by Health Surveillance Assistants in Malawi

Objective To assess the quality of care provided by Health Surveillance Assistants (HSAs)—a cadre of community-based health workers—as part of a national scale-up of community case management of childhood illness (CCM) in Malawi. Methods Trained research teams visited a random sample of HSAs (n = 131) trained in CCM and provided with initial essential drug stocks in six districts, and observed the provision of sick child care. Trained clinicians conducted ‘gold-standard’ reassessments of the child. Members of the survey team also interviewed caregivers and HSAs and inspected drug stocks and patient registers. Findings HSAs provided correct treatment with antimalarials to 79% of the 241 children presenting with uncomplicated fever, with oral rehydration salts to 69% of the 93 children presenting with uncomplicated diarrhoea and with antibiotics to 52% of 58 children presenting with suspected pneumonia (cough with fast breathing). About one in five children (18%) presented with danger signs. HSAs correctly assessed 37% of children for four danger signs by conducting a physical exam, and correctly referred 55% of children with danger signs. Conclusion Malawi’s CCM programme is a promising strategy for increasing coverage of sick child treatment, although there is much room for improvement, especially in the correct assessment and treatment of suspected pneumonia and the identification and referral of sick children with danger signs. However, HSAs provided sick child care at levels of quality similar to those provided in first-level health facilities in Malawi, and quality should improve if the Ministry of Health and partners act on the results of this assessment.

Malawi and Millennium Development Goal 4: a Countdown to 2015 country case study

BACKGROUND Several years in advance of the 2015 endpoint for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Malawi was already thought to be one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa likely to meet the MDG 4 target of reducing under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Countdown to 2015 therefore selected the Malawi National Statistical Office to lead an in-depth country case study, aimed mainly at explaining the countrys success in improving child survival. METHODS We estimated child and neonatal mortality for the years 2000-14 using five district-representative household surveys. The study included recalculation of coverage indicators for that period, and used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to attribute the child lives saved in the years from 2000 to 2013 to various interventions. We documented the adoption and implementation of policies and programmes affecting the health of women and children, and developed estimates of financing. FINDINGS The estimated mortality rate in children younger than 5 years declined substantially in the study period, from 247 deaths (90% CI 234-262) per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 71 deaths (58-83) in 2013, with an annual rate of decline of 5·4%. The most rapid mortality decline occurred in the 1-59 months age group; neonatal mortality declined more slowly (from 50 to 23 deaths per 1000 livebirths), representing an annual rate of decline of 3·3%. Nearly half of the coverage indicators have increased by more than 20 percentage points between 2000 and 2014. Results from the LiST analysis show that about 280,000 childrens lives were saved between 2000 and 2013, attributable to interventions including treatment for diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria (23%), insecticide-treated bednets (20%), vaccines (17%), reductions in wasting (11%) and stunting (9%), facility birth care (7%), and prevention and treatment of HIV (7%). The amount of funding allocated to the health sector has increased substantially, particularly to child health and HIV and from external sources, but remains below internationally agreed targets. Key policies to address the major causes of child mortality and deliver high-impact interventions at scale throughout Malawi began in the late 1990s and intensified in the latter half of the 2000s and into the 2010s, backed by health-sector-wide policies to improve womens and childrens health. INTERPRETATION This case study confirmed that Malawi had achieved MDG 4 for child survival by 2013. Our findings suggest that this was achieved mainly through the scale-up of interventions that are effective against the major causes of child deaths (malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoea), programmes to reduce child undernutrition and mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and some improvements in the quality of care provided around birth. The Government of Malawi was among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to adopt evidence-based policies and implement programmes at scale to prevent unnecessary child deaths. Much remains to be done, building on this success and extending it to higher proportions of the population and targeting continued high neonatal mortality rates. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, The World Bank, Government of Australia, Government of Canada, Government of Norway, Government of Sweden, Government of the UK, and UNICEF.

How well does LiST capture mortality by wealth quintile? A comparison of measured versus modelled mortality rates among children under-five in Bangladesh

Background In the absence of planned efforts to target the poor, child survival programs often favour the rich. Further evidence is needed urgently about which interventions and programme approaches are most effective in addressing inequities. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is available and can be used to model mortality levels across economic groups based on coverage levels for child survival interventions. Methods We used LiST to model neonatal and under-5 mortality levels among the highest and the lowest wealth quintiles in Bangladesh based on national and wealth-quintile-specific coverage of child survival interventions. The cause-of-death structure among children under-5 was also modelled using the coverage levels. Modelled rates were compared to the rates measured directly from the 2004 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey and associated verbal autopsies. Results Modelled estimates of mortality within wealth quintiles fell within the 95% confidence intervals of measured mortality for both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality. LiST also performed well in predicting the cause-of-death structure for these two age groups for the poorest quintile of the population, but less well for the richest quintile. Conclusions LiST holds promise as a useful tool for assessing socio-economic inequities in child survival in low-income countries.

Assessing the impact of integrated community case management (iCCM) programs on child mortality: Review of early results and lessons learned in sub-Saharan Africa

Aim To accelerate progress in reducing child mortality, many countries in sub–Saharan Africa have adopted and scaled–up integrated community case management (iCCM) programs targeting the three major infectious killers of children under–five. The programs train lay community health workers to assess, classify and treat uncomplicated cases of pneumonia with antibiotics, malaria with antimalarial drugs and diarrhea with Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) and zinc. Although management of these conditions with the respective appropriate drugs has proven efficacious in randomized trials, the effectiveness of large iCCM scale–up programs in reducing child mortality is yet to be demonstrated. This paper reviews recent experience in documenting and attributing changes in under–five mortality to the specific interventions of a variety of iCCM programs. Methods Eight recent studies have been identified and assessed in terms of design, mortality measurement and results. Impact of the iCCM program on mortality among children age 2–59 months was assessed through a difference in differences approach using random effect Poisson regression. Results Designs used by these studies include cluster randomized trials, randomized stepped–wedge and quasi–experimental trials. Child mortality is measured through demographic surveillance or household survey with full birth history conducted at the end of program implementation. Six of the eight studies showed a higher decline in mortality among children 2–59 months in program areas compared to comparison areas, although this acceleration was statistically significant in only one study with a decline of 76% larger in intervention than in comparison areas. Conclusion Studies that evaluate large scale iCCM programs and include assessment of mortality impact must ensure an appropriate design. This includes required sample sizes and sufficient number of program and comparison districts that allow adequate inference and attribution of impact. In addition, large–scale program utilization, and a significant increase in coverage of care seeking and treatment of targeted childhood illnesses are preconditions to measurable mortality impact. Those issues need to be addressed before large investments in assessing changes in child mortality is undertaken, or the results of mortality impact evaluation will most likely be inconclusive.

Monitoring child survival in ‘real time’ using routine health facility records: results from Malawi

Few developing countries have the accurate civil registration systems needed to track progress in child survival. However, the health information systems in most of these countries do record facility births and deaths, at least in principle. We used data from two districts of Malawi to test a method for monitoring child mortality based on adjusting health facility records for incomplete coverage.

Where is the gap?: the contribution of disparities within developing countries to global inequalities in under-five mortality

BackgroundGlobal health equity strategists have previously focused much on differences across countries. At first glance, the global health gap appears to result primarily from disparities between the developing and developed regions. We examine how much of this disparity could be attributed to within-country disparities in developing nations.MethodsWe used data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1995 and 2010 in 67 developing countries. Using a population attributable risk approach, we computed the proportion of global under-five mortality gap and the absolute number of under-five deaths that would be reduced if the under-five mortality rate in each of these 67 countries was lowered to the level of the top 10% economic group in each country. As a sensitivity check, we also conducted comparable calculations using top 5% and the top 20% economic group.ResultsIn 2007, approximately 6.6 million under-five deaths were observed in the 67 countries used in the analysis. This could be reduced to only 600,000 deaths if these countries had the same under-five mortality rate as developed countries. If the under-five mortality rate was lowered to the rate among the top 10% economic group in each of these countries, under-five deaths would be reduced to 3.7 million. This corresponds to a 48% reduction in the global mortality gap and 2.9 million under-five deaths averted. Using cutoff points of top 5% and top 20% economic groups showed reduction of 37% and 56% respectively in the global mortality gap. With these cutoff points, respectively 2.3 and 3.4 million under-five deaths would be averted.ConclusionUnder-five mortality disparities within developing countries account for roughly half of the global gap between developed and developing countries. Thus, within-country inequities deserve as much consideration as do inequalities between the world’s developing and developed regions.

The contribution of poor and rural populations to national trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health coverage: analyses of cross-sectional surveys from 64 countries

Summary Background Coverage levels for essential interventions aimed at reducing deaths of mothers and children are increasing steadily in most low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed how much poor and rural populations in these countries are benefiting from national-level progress. Methods We analysed trends in a composite coverage indicator (CCI) based on eight reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health interventions in 209 national surveys in 64 countries, from Jan 1, 1994, to Dec 31, 2014. Trends by wealth quintile and urban or rural residence were fitted with multilevel modelling. We used an approach akin to the calculation of population attributable risk to quantify the contribution of poor and rural populations to national trends. Findings From 1994 to 2014, the CCI increased by 0·82 percent points a year across all countries; households in the two poorest quintiles had an increase of 0·99 percent points a year, which was faster than that for the three wealthiest quintiles (0·68 percent points). Gains among poor populations were faster in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Globally, national level increases in CCI were 17·5% faster than they would have been without the contribution of the two poorest quintiles. Coverage increased more rapidly annually in rural (0·93 percent points) than urban (0·52 percent points) areas. Interpretation National coverage gains were accelerated by important increases among poor and rural mothers and children. Despite progress, important inequalities persist, and need to be addressed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Funding UNICEF, Wellcome Trust.