Agnieszka I. Olbert

Influence of seasonal circulation on flushing of the Irish Sea.

We applied a three-dimensional general ocean and coastal circulation model to the Irish Sea in order to determine water renewal time scales in the region. The model was forced with meteorological data for 1995, a year with relatively warm summer and when extensive hydrographic surveys were conducted in the Irish Sea. We investigated intra-annual variability in the rates of net flow through the Irish Sea and carried out several flushing simulations based on conservative tracer transport. The results indicate that the net northward flow of 2.50 km(3)/d is seasonally highly variable and under certain conditions is reversed to southward. The variability in obtained residence times is high; baroclinic effects are significant. Obtained results point at the importance of spatial and temporal consideration for transport of pollutants in the shelf seas. Implications for management are numerous and involve activities such as transport, fishing, use of resources, nature conservation, monitoring, tourism and recreation.

Modelling the far field hydro-environmental impacts of tidal farms - A focus on tidal regime, inter-tidal zones and flushing

The introduction of tidal stream turbines into water bodies can have an impact on the environment due to changes in the hydrodynamic flow fields resulting from the extraction of energy by the tidal turbines. Water levels, tidal currents and flushing characteristics could potentially be significantly altered with the introduction of tidal turbine farms, which could lead to possible loss of habitat and a change in the tidal regime. Therefore, planning of tidal turbines field deployments must take into account possible hydro-environmental impacts. This paper describes research undertaken by the authors in the Shannon Estuary to predict changes in the tidal regime and flushing characteristics, with the introduction of tidal turbine farms of different array configurations. The model was simulated using a 2D hydrodynamic model that was modified to incorporate the effects of tidal turbine fields. Water levels are shown to have been affected with the inclusion of turbines, especially in areas upstream of the turbine farm where inter-tidal zones could become predominately inundated resulting in loss of habitat in the estuary. Flushing parameters were also shown to be altered with the inclusion of turbines, with residence time shown to be increased, which could change pollutant transport in the region.

Determination of flushing characteristics of the Irish Sea: A spatial approach

The Authors devised a novel generic approach to assessing the flushing of the Irish Sea through the determination of spatially distributed residence times and the development of flushing homogeneity curves. Results indicate that flushing of the Irish Sea is both spatially and temporally highly variable. Average residence times of the material introduced in winter may be up to 28% higher than the material introduced in summer, and the aerial flushing deviation index may reach up to 470 day. The spatial approach to flushing is an extremely useful complement to classical flushing analysis considering significant implications for management of water quality.

Sea level rise in the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel and impacts of a Severn Barrage

Many research projects in recent years have focused on marine renewable energy devices and structures due to the growing interest in marine renewable energy. These devices and structures have very different life spans. Schemes such as the Severn Barrage in the UK, as originally proposed by the Severn Tidal Power Group (STPG), would be the largest tidal renewable energy generation project in the world and would be operational for well over a century if built. Due to the long working life of some of these marine renewable energy schemes, it is important to study the impacts of climate change on such schemes, and particularly sea level rise. This study focuses on investigating the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change on the largest macro-tidal estuary in the UK, namely the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel, and the alterations of the impacts and the performance of the Severn Barrage as a result of climate change. A hierarchy of computer models was implemented to identify the more localised impacts of climate change in the region of the study. Moreover, the potential benefits of the barrage on reducing flood risk, as well as the impact of climate change and the barrage on intertidal mudflats were investigated. The model predictions showed that the barrage would reduce flood risk due to the sea level rise. Furthermore, annual power output and the initial reduction in flood risk of the barrage would not be affected by sea level rise. Sea level rise at the outer Bristol Channel predicted using a nested global and regional models.Extent of sea level rise within the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel was predicted by implementing a coastal model.Impacts of sea level rise on intertidal mudflats in the estuary was studied.Benefits of a proposed Severn Tidal Barrage in reducing flood risk due to the sea level rise are demonstrated.Impact of the sea level rise on the performance of the barrage was investigated.

Assessment of Tc-99 monitoring within the western Irish Sea using a numerical model.

Water circulation patterns and associated material transport within a highly dynamic system such as the Irish Sea are complex phenomena. Although Tc-99 monitoring programme undertaken by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland provides a good insight to the material distribution on the east coast of Ireland, transport patterns within the Irish Sea have not been fully explored. In this study a validated transport model was used to hindcast transport of Tc-99 discharged from the Sellafield plant to determine extents of Tc-99 migration within the Irish Sea and reassess transit times to east coast of Ireland. Transit times are also estimated within a context of changes in meteorological conditions and fluctuations in discharges. Additionally, seasonal and inter-annual circulation patterns were examined. Relationships between discharge times and timing of far field concentrations are highly variable and are dependent on sea dynamics controlling the accumulation and removal of Tc-99 mass. Transport towards the Irish east coast, and consequently transit times, vary intra- and inter-annually, and depend on the prevailing hydrodynamic conditions resulting from meteorological conditions. The transit times from Sellafield to Balbriggan fall within the wide range of 30-240 days; with summer releases resulting in the shortest transit times. The model also indicated a strong relationship between summer concentration peaks on the east coast of Ireland and the strength of the Western Irish Gyre. Sudden increases of Tc-99 concentrations at Balbriggan coincide with peak of sea surface temperatures when the gyre is strongest and when advection is fastest. The adequacy of the current radionuclide monitoring programme within the western Irish Sea is evaluated, and recommendations are made for the development of a more optimised monitoring programme.

Effects of complex hydrodynamic processes on the horizontal and vertical distribution of Tc-99 in the Irish Sea

The increased discharge of Tc-99 from the Sellafield plant following the commissioning of the Enhance Actinide Removal Plant in 1994 was reflected in higher Tc-99 activity concentrations over much of the Irish Sea. The presence of this radionuclide in the marine environment is of concern not only because of its long half life but also high bio-concentration factor in commercially valuable species, such Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) and common lobster (Homarus gammarus). Accurate predictions of the transport, and spatial and temporal distributions of Tc-99 in the Irish Sea have important environmental and commercial implications. In this study, transport of the Tc-99 material was simulated in order to develop an increased understanding of long-term horizontal and vertical distributions. In particular, impact of seasonal hydrodynamic features such as the summer stratification on the surface-to-bottom Tc-99 ratio was of interest. Also, material retention mechanisms within the western Irish Sea were explored and flushing rates under various release conditions and meteorological forcing were estimated. The results show that highest vertical gradients are observed between June and July in the deepest regions of the North Channel and the western Irish Sea where radionuclide-rich saline-poor water overlays radionuclide-poor saline-rich Atlantic water masses. Strong correlation between top-to-bottom ratio of Tc-99 and strength of stratification was found. Flushing studies demonstrate that as the stratification intensifies, residence times within the western Irish Sea increase. In stratified waters of the gyre Tc-99 material is flushed out from the upper layer much quicker than from the bottom zone. The research also shows that in the gyre the biologically active upper layers above the thermocline are likely to contain higher concentrations than the near-bed region. Long-term horizontal and vertical distributions as determined in this study provide a basis for assessment of a potential biota exposure to Tc-99.

Turbulence modelling using dynamic parameterization with data assimilation

ABSTRACT This research assesses the application of a novel approach to parameterization of turbulence models. Dynamic parameterization is used to improve performance of two turbulence schemes incorporated in a coastal hydrodynamic model code: the Prandtl mixing length (PML) model and the k- model. The 3D variational data assimilation scheme is used to assess model skill and facilitate optimization of the turbulence schemes. Neither the PML nor the k- models are particularly suitable for recirculating flows of complex turbulence structure when default empirical constants are used. Static parameterization improves model predictions but the degree of improvement varies across the flow. Dynamic parameterization is superior to static parameterization due to its general solution for a range of flows and the self-updating process does not require costly pre-processed determination of turbulence constants. When using dynamic parameterization, the PML model exhibits comparable levels of accuracy to the k- model while retaining its computational efficiency and ease of application.