Agnieszka Wypych

Legacies, socio-economic and biophysical processes and drivers: the case of future forest cover expansion in the Polish Carpathians and Swiss Alps

Mountain forest areas are key for providing a wide range of ecosystem services and are hot spots for land use change processes, in particular, increase in forest cover at the expense of mountain pastures and meadows. Mountain forest systems in eastern and western Europe have likely similar future socio-economic situations but significantly different socio-economic history. Using a scenario-based land use modelling approach (Dyna-CLUE framework) we model three scenarios (trend, liberalisation and self-sufficiency) of future land use in the Polish Carpathians and the Swiss Alps, focussing on forest cover change. We find that forest cover increase can be expected to continue in European mountainous regions under all likely scenarios, limited only by relatively strict policy interventions. Biophysical factors, rather than socio-economic ones, are key for defining the suitability for, and therefore likely locations of future forest cover, but land use legacy plays a very important role in the spatial patterns of future forest cover, particularly in eastern Europe.

Late Spring Freezes in Poland in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Late spring freeze events, a significant agroclimatic hazard, are investigated for Poland. Daily minimum air temperatures from 184 stations for the period 1951-2010 were used to analyze the frequency and conditional probability of late spring freezes. In addition, three classification schemes were employed to investigate the atmospheric circulation responsible for late spring freezes events. The findings suggest that knowledge of the airflow influencing late spring freezes can help to understand the complex historical trends and projected future changes in freeze risk for perennial crops

Climatologically based warning system against meteorological hazards and weather extremes: the example for Poland

AbstractThis work presents a detailed scientific concept of an operational warning system concerning weather hazards, which is a component of the IT System for Country’s Protection against extreme hazards currently under development in Poland. The system displays eight weather hazards that prevail in Poland (air temperature extremes, heavy rainfall, strong wind, intensive snowfall, fog, glaze, rime, and thunderstorms with hail), which are presented on the maps. The information will also be made available to the public in the form of warnings sent automatically via the Internet or text messages. The weather hazard maps consist of two highly complementary components. The first contains maps of areas vulnerable to the hazards’ occurrence (climatological maps). These are based on observational and measurement data covering the period of 1951/1966–2010. The second component consists of operational maps based on current weather conditions, including primarily predictive data provided by the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model ALADIN (warning maps). The climatological information has been applied to the operational maps for several extremes not directly predicted by the ALADIN model.

Climate Changes in the Vertical Zones of the Polish Carpathians in the Last 50 Years

The variability and extremes of air temperature and precipitation in the years 1951–2006 were analyzed for different vertical zones as well as for the W-E profile of the Polish Carpathians. Some results of the analysis were compared with those concerning the Eastern Alps. Data from 9 Polish and 18 Austrian stations were used. The variability of air temperature in the Polish Western Carpathians during the study period decreased with altitude whereas no relation between temperature variability and altitude was observed in the Alps. The rate of temperature increase per decade was much lower at Kasprowy Wierch than at the lower locations (0.14 and 0.21 K, respectively) and for the period 1956–2000 it was even statistically insignificant. Notably, the temperature at Kasprowy Wierch was much lower than the temperature at the similar altitudes in the Alps. No clear trends in precipitation can be observed in either mountain chains. The observed differences in the climate change patterns between both mountain chains are connected with their geographical features and the air temperature increase probably results from diversified effects of atmospheric circulation.

Variability of the European Climate on the Basis of Differentiation of Indicators of Continentalism

Monthly air temperature and precipitation values of ten selected European stations (mostly between 1901 and 2000) were used to calculate thermal and pluvial continentality indices and define regularity in the spatial and temporal variances of their values in Europe. The changeability of thermal indices was found to be statistically insignificant. A slight decreasing trend leading towards oceanisation of the European climate is apparent, primarily in the stations located in continental areas. Over the course of many years, periods with prevailing oceanic and continental influences are remarkable; they exist synchronically in all stations. The long-term changeability of the pluvial continentality indices is statistically significant only for the stations with the continental type of climate, where a tendency of continentalism is clearly seen. The inconsistency between the changeability’s direction of pluvial conditions and climate oceanisation tendency at the end of the last century suggests that apart from circulation factors, local factors – such as anthropopression – are important in developing climate changeability, especially in continental areas.

Long-term variability of air temperature and precipitation conditions in the Polish Carpathians

Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years. Climate change is most evident in the foothills; however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians, which reach approximately 350 meters, on average, what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.

Vertical Structure of Moisture Content over Europe

The vertical structure of water vapor content in the atmosphere strongly affects the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface and processes associated with the formation of clouds and atmospheric precipitation. The purpose of this study was to assess the vertical differentiation of water vapor over Europe on a seasonal basis and also to evaluate the role of atmospheric circulation in changes therein. Daily values of specific humidity (SHUM) for the time period 1981–2015 were obtained from pressure levels available from ECMWF Era-Interim reanalysis data and used in the study. Eight grid points were analyzed in detail. Each point is representative of a region with different moisture conditions. SHUM profiles were then used to identify cases of moisture inversion. Horizontal flux of specific humidity (SHUMF) was analyzed for principal pressure levels that occur in both inversion-type and inversion-free situations. In addition, SHUM and SHUMF anomalies were identified for advection directions. The research results showed the existence of differences in the vertical structure of water vapor content in the troposphere over Europe, and the Northeastern Atlantic and the presence of moisture inversions not only in areas north of 60°N but also in temperate and subtropical zones. Inversions can occur in two different forms—surface-based and elevated. The occurrence of inversions varies with the seasons. The role of atmospheric circulation is observable in the winter and triggers both surpluses and shortages of moisture via the effect of specific pressure system types (significant role of seasonal pressure high) and via advection directions. In addition, there exists a clear difference between the structure of moisture in the atmospheric boundary layer and in the free atmosphere.