Agostino Ferrara

Evaluating environmental sensitivity at the basin scale through the use of geographic information systems and remotely sensed data: an example covering the Agri basin (Southern Italy)

Abstract The aim of this study is to develop a methodological reference framework, for use at the basin scale, from which environmental sensitivity can be evaluated. In this paper the results of a 3-year investigation into the degradation processes related to desertification in the Agri basin environment (Southern Italy) are presented. Different degradation stages or desertification risks are also evaluated at the plot scale. These data, and the derived results, are integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) along with regional scale information layers related to selected environmental and socio-economic factors. The techniques developed at the plot scale are used both to prime and to assess the regional scale measures as they are developed. All data are managed in a GIS which facilitates access to the information and enables it to be updated in a timely fashion. The GIS also enhances data analysis, increasing the interpretability of the data, by enabling cross analysis procedures and various classifications to be performed. As a result, the current landscape genesis can be identified, and appropriate intervention stimulated rapidly. The main aims of the present research are, firstly, to set up an efficient and simple computational structure to evaluate the response of selected thematic layers to degradation phenomena at the basin scale and, secondly, to apply the resulting strategy to a specific situation in the Mediterranean Environment.

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Degradation Dynamics: A Mediterranean Case Study

In the last decades, due to climate changes, soil deterioration, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCCs), land degradation risk has become one of the most important ecological issues at the global level. Land degradation involves two interlocking systems: the natural ecosystem and the socio-economic system. The complexity of land degradation processes should be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess diachronically land degradation dynamics under changing land covers. This paper analyzes LULCCs and the parallel increase in the level of land sensitivity to degradation along the coastal belt of Sardinia (Italy), a typical Mediterranean region where human pressure affects the landscape characteristics through fires, intensive agricultural practices, land abandonment, urban sprawl, and tourism concentration. Results reveal that two factors mainly affect the level of land sensitivity to degradation in the study area: (i) land abandonment and (ii) unsustainable use of rural and peri-urban areas. Taken together, these factors represent the primary cause of the LULCCs observed in coastal Sardinia. By linking the structural features of the Mediterranean landscape with its functional land degradation dynamics over time, these results contribute to orienting policies for sustainable land management in Mediterranean coastal areas.

Soil resources, land cover changes and rural areas: Towards a spatial mismatch?

The present study analyzes the impact of long-term urban expansion on soil depletion in Emilia-Romagna, an agricultural-specialized region of northern Italy. Using settlement density maps at three points in time (1945, 1971 and 2001) dense and diffused urbanization trends were assessed and correlated with soil quality. Non-urbanized land decreased from 11.8% in 1945 to 6.3% in 2001. Urbanization dynamics between 1945 and 1971 reflect the increase of dense settlements around pre-existing urban centers. To the contrary, a discontinuous, low- and medium-density urban expansion along the road network and in the most fertile lowland areas was observed between 1971 and 2001. Overall, urbanization consumed soils with progressively higher quality. However, a diverging trend was observed in the two investigated time intervals: soil with high quality was occupied by compact and dense settlements during 1945-1971 and by discontinuous, medium- and low-density settlements during 1971-2001. These findings document the polarization in areas with low and high soil capital and may reflect disparities in agricultural production and increasing environmental degradation. Moreover, the analysis shows a diverging trend between land and soil consumption patterns suggesting that the edification of pervious land is an unreliable indicator of soil quality depletion. Taken together, the results of this study illustrate the (increasing) spatial mismatch between agricultural land and high-quality soils as a consequence of urbanization-driven landscape transformations and may inform measures to contain soil depletion driven by economic growth.

Assessing temporal variation of primary and ecosystem production in two Mediterranean forests using a modified 3-PG model

ContextForest ecosystem carbon uptake is heavily affected by increasing drought in the Mediterranean region.AimsThe objectives of this study were to assess the capacity of a modified 3-PG model to capture temporal variation in gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem net carbon uptake (NEE) in two Mediterranean forest types.MethodsThe model was upgraded from a monthly (3-PG) to a daily time step (3-PGday), and a soil water balance routine was included to better represent soil water availability. The model was evaluated against seasonal GPP and NEE dynamics from eddy covariance measurements.ResultsSimulated and measured soil water content values were congruent throughout the study period for both forest types. 3-PGday effectively described the following: GPP and NEE seasonal patterns; the transition of forest ecosystems from carbon sink to carbon source; however, the model overestimated diurnal ecosystem respiration values and failed to predict ecosystem respiration peaks.ConclusionsThe model served as a rather effective tool to represent seasonal variation in gross primary productivity, and ecosystem net carbon uptake under Mediterranean drought-prone conditions. However, its semi-empirical nature and the simplicity inherent in the original model formulation are obstacles preventing the model working well for short-term daily predictions.

Desertification Risk, Long-Term Land- Use Changes and Environmental Resilience: A Case Study in Basilicata, Italy

Quantifying the environmental vulnerability and the resilience of rapidly changing Mediterranean landscapes under climate change is a crucial undertaking for the sustainable management of regions experiencing intense human pressure. This paper diachronically (1975–2006) analyses the impact of land-use changes (LUCs) on land vulnerability to desertification at two coastal sites in southern Italy with different environmental and socio-economic conditions to identify landscape responses to territorial reconfiguration. We found that both initial land vulnerability and its increase over time are higher in areas experiencing LUCs than in areas with stable patterns of land-use. Stable, low levels of land vulnerability to desertification were associated with forests and semi-natural areas, while urbanisation and agricultural intensification led to marked increases in land vulnerability. The procedure outlined in this paper is suitable for identifying land-use trajectories associated with the desertification processes and may inform policies aimed at preventing soil and land degradation.

Resilient landscapes in Mediterranean urban areas: Understanding factors influencing forest trends

ABSTRACT Urban and peri‐urban forests are recognized as basic elements for Nature‐Based Solutions (NBS), as they preserve and may increase environmental quality in urbanized contexts. For this reason, the amount of forest land per inhabitant is a pivotal efficiency indicator to be considered in the sustainable governance, land management, planning and design of metropolitan areas. The present study illustrates a multivariate analysis of per‐capita forest area (PFA) in mainland Attica, the urban region surrounding Athens, Greece. Attica is considered a typical case of Mediterranean urbanization where planning has not regulated urban expansion and successive waves of spontaneous growth have occurred over time. In such a context, an analysis of factors that can affect landscape changes in terms of PFA may inform effective strategies for the sustainable management of socio‐ecological local systems in light of the NBS perspective. A total of 26 indicators were collected per decade at the municipal scale in the study area with the aim to identify the factors most closely associated to the amount of PFA. Indicators of urban morphology and functions have been considered together with environmental and topographical variables. In Attica, PFA showed a progressive decrease between 1960 and 2010. In particular, PFA progressively declined (1980, 1990) along fringe areas surrounding Athens and in peri‐urban districts experiencing dispersed expansion of residential settlements. Distance from core cities and from the seacoast, typical urban functions (e.g., multiple use of buildings and per capita built‐up area) and percentage of agricultural land‐use in each municipality are the variables most associated with high PFA. In recent years, some municipalities have shown an expansion of forest cover, mainly due to land abandonment and forest recolonization. Findings from this case study have allowed us to identify priorities for NBS at metropolitan level aimed at promoting more sustainable urbanization. Distinctively, proposed NBS basically focus on (i) the effective protection of crop mosaics with relict woodlots; (ii) the improvement of functionality, quality and accessibility of new forests; and (iii) the establishment of new forests in rural municipalities. HighlightsWe analyse trend of per‐capita forest area between 1960 and 2010 in Attica, Greece.We identify factors most associated with land‐use efficiency at the local scale.Forest land per inhabitant showed a progressive decrease between 1960 and 2010.Some municipalities of Attica have shown an increase of forest cover.We identify priorities for Nature‐Based Solutions at metropolitan level.

Individual Competition Indices for Conifer Plantations

Abstract In the management of sustainable conifer plantations, the development of yield models allowing a proper planning of interventions within a low-input silvicultural system is of major interest. The fundamental hypothesis in most forest plantation yield studies assumes that individual tree growth is dependent upon the competitive influence of neighbouring trees. A critical synthesis of the best-known types of individual competition indices is presented, chiefly by discussing applicative differences between the ‘distance dependent’ (spatial) and the ‘distance independent’ (non-spatial) indices. Experimental preliminary trials show that non-spatial competition indices have a predictive ability no lower than the spatial ones, at least when used for conifer-plantation yield projection. The following simple index proved suitable: where Di is the diameter of the ith competitor and Dj is the diameter of the tree in question. Interactions between individual competition indices, predictive ability and stand attributes, such as density and fertility, have been observed.

Shaping the role of 'fast' and 'slow' drivers of change in forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems

The temporal speeds and spatial scales at which ecosystem processes operate are often at odds with the scale and speed at which natural resources such as soil, water and vegetation are managed those. Scale mismatches often occur as a result of the time-lag between policy development, implementation and observable changes in natural capital in particular. In this study, we analyse some of the transformations that can occur in complex forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems undergoing biophysical and socioeconomic change. We use a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) applied to a representative set of variables to assess changes in components of natural, economic and social capitals over time. Our results indicate similarities among variables and spatial units (i.e. municipalities) which allows us to rank the variables used to describe the SES according to their rapidity of change. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in the fact that the assessment of rapidity-to-change, based on the MFA, takes into account the multivariate relationships among the systems variables, identifying the net rate of change for the whole system, and the relative impact that individual variables exert on the system itself. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of fast and slow variables on the evolution of socio-economic systems based on simplified multivariate procedures applicable to vastly different socio-economic contexts and conditions. This study also contributes to quantitative analysis methods for long-established socio-ecological systems, which may help in designing more effective, and sustainable land management strategies in environmentally sensitive areas.

Forest transition and urban growth: exploring latent dynamics (1936–2006) in Rome, Italy, using a geographically weighted regression and implications for coastal forest conservation

Peri-urban Mediterranean landscapes preserve high-quality environments with biodiversity strictly dependent on relict forests and mixed agroforest systems. The assessment of long-term land-use changes at the urban-wildland interface is particularly interesting for policies coping with natural land conservation and management. The dynamics of Mediterranean fringe forests were rather mixed over the last century alternating decline due to deforestation and clear-cutting up to World War II and a recovery afterwards. Forest transition theory (FTT) has been used to describe a turnaround in land-use trends for a given territory from a period of net forest area loss to a period of net forest area gain. The present paper analyses forest expansion in Rome’s province in the light of the FTT using diachronic maps, which cover two time intervals (1936–1974 and 1974–2006) corresponding to distinct socioeconomic contexts at the local scale. Our results indicate a slight increase in forest areas along the whole study period owing to natural reforestation following the abandonment of agricultural land and the higher level of forest protection. Geographically weighted regression indicates the growing importance of the urban gradient in forest dynamics. This may reflect settlement dispersion and higher disturbance to forests due to soil sealing, wildland fires, habitat fragmentation, cropland abandonment, and invasive species increase. The tendency towards a more mixed and heterogeneous woodland structure at the urban-wildland interface, especially in coastal areas, should be contrasted through sustainable land management practices integrating urban planning and environmental policies into a unique strategy for the protection of relict agroforest systems.

Complexity in action: Untangling latent relationships between land quality, economic structures and socio-spatial patterns in Italy

Land quality, a key economic capital supporting local development, is affected by biophysical and anthropogenic factors. Taken as a relevant attribute of economic systems, land quality has shaped the territorial organization of any given region influencing localization of agriculture, industry and settlements. In regions with long-established human-landscape interactions, such as the Mediterranean basin, land quality has determined social disparities and polarization in the use of land, reflecting the action of geographical gradients based on elevation and population density. The present study investigates latent relationships within a large set of indicators profiling local communities and land quality on a fine-grained resolution scale in Italy with the aim to assess the potential impact of land quality on the regional socioeconomic structure. The importance of land quality gradients in the socioeconomic configuration of urban and rural regions was verified analyzing the distribution of 149 socioeconomic and environmental indicators organized in 5 themes and 17 research dimensions. Agriculture, income, education and labour market variables discriminate areas with high land quality from areas with low land quality. While differential land quality in peri-urban areas may reflect conflicts between competing actors, moderate (or low) quality of land in rural districts is associated with depopulation, land abandonment, subsidence agriculture, unemployment and low educational levels. We conclude that the socioeconomic profile of local communities has been influenced by land quality in a different way along urban-rural gradients. Policies integrating environmental and socioeconomic measures are required to consider land quality as a pivotal target for sustainable development. Regional planning will benefit from an in-depth understanding of place-specific relationships between local communities and the environment.