Ahmed A. Hady

Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

The Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability (SWUSV) Microsatellite Mission

We present the ambitions of the SWUSV (Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability) Microsatellite Mission that encompasses three major scientific objectives: (1) Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and coronal mass ejections (Lyman-Alpha and Herzberg continuum imaging); (2) solar forcing on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, plus Lyman-Alpha and the CN bandhead); (3) simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential. The paper briefly outlines the mission and describes the five proposed instruments of the model payload: SUAVE (Solar Ultraviolet Advanced Variability Experiment), an optimized telescope for FUV (Lyman-Alpha) and MUV (200–220 nm Herzberg continuum) imaging (sources of variability); UPR (Ultraviolet Passband Radiometers), with 64 UV filter radiometers; a vector magnetometer; thermal plasma measurements and Langmuir probes; and a total and spectral solar irradiance and Earth radiative budget ensemble (SERB, Solar irradiance & Earth Radiative Budget). SWUSV is proposed as a small mission to CNES and to ESA for a possible flight as early as 2017–2018.

Analytical studies of solar cycle 23 and its periodicities

Abstract Solar cycle 23 (now well under way) started in April 1996 and had its peak in the year 2000. Monthly counts of grouped solar flares during its entire period (launch on 1996 to re-entry on September 2000) are given. The data are obtained from Solar Geophysical data reports by NOAA national data centers, Boulder, Colorado, USA. The 10.7 cm radio flux during solar cycle 23 until September 2000 is also used in the present analysis. The periodicities around 1.4 years, 153.9, 105.3, 68, 53.6, and 46.9 days, have been recorded in this work and are significant. The 153.9 day-periodicity has been reported during solar cycle 23 in this work, while it was absent in previous papers during solar cycles 21 and 22. These periodicities are related to the theoretical mode of solar activity and of solar core oscillations.

Polarization properties of the June 21, 2001 solar corona

Five series of coronal images have been obtained by V.Kulijanishvili during the total solar eclipse of the June 21, 2001, in Zambia, Lusaka. A photographic mirror-lens coronagraph- polarimeter (D=100 mm, F=1000 mm) was used. The absolute brightness, polarization and direction of polarization of the inner corona were measured. Standard techniques are used for the separation of the F- and K-coronas and for determination of coronal electron densities and temperatures. The background skylight polarization and intensity are calculated.

The Periodicities of Solar X-ray Flares and Coronal Mass ejections during Solar Cycle 23

The Events of energetic particles from solar X-ray flares and shock waves have been studied. The data were taken from the National Geophysical data center (NGDC) in Boulder, Colorado, USA, Where the data were taken during the solar cycle 23rd. The 23rd cycle is the present one, that started in April 1996, and its maximum was in May 2001, and it will be decayed during year 2007. Power spectrum methods have been applied for analysis of the data given, to find the short and intermediate periodicities. The periodicity around 14 days has appeared in this analysis. This has important implications for understanding and predicting the effects of solar activity on the Earth and on the earth’s atmosphere. If a Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) hit the Earth, it can excite a geomagnetic storm. Large geomagnetic storms, among other things, can cause electrical power which can damage satellite communications. In space CME typically drive shock waves that produce energetic particles that can damage both electronic equipment and astronauts that are outside the protection of the Earth’s magnetic field. So, the prediction of the high energetic particle events is of vital importance for space navigation and airline disasters. 1. Method and Analysis The data of events occurred during solar cycle 23rd, were taken from the National Geophysical data center (NGDC) in Boulder, Colorado, USA. The method of power spectrum analysis of the data has been used for all data analysis, where the squared amplitudes [aν ] are taken as the power of the frequency ν, as follows: [aν ] = ( ∑N−1 i=0 r(i) cos(2πi) )2 + ( ∑N−1 i=0 r(i) sin(2πi) )2 N2 Where N is the total number of X-ray flares events, equal to 6483 events in solar Xray calculations of power spectrum. By using hamming function the data have been smoothed, where the resolution power spectrum given as: rn = 0.23rn−1 + 0.54rn + 0.23rn+1 For more details about the method of analysis, see for example, Hady A. (2002), and Rieger et al (1984).The relative error values are calculated according to:

Resilience Needs in NATO Partner Countries, Global and African Future Earth

Research now demonstrates that the continued functioning of the Earth System, as it has supported the well-being of the human civilization in recent centuries, is at risk. Resilience is thus needed in NATO Partner Countries on national, regional, and global dimensions.

Descriptive study of X-class flares released in the year 2014, during the double peak of SC-24

During the declining phase of the Solar cycle 24, a new peak appeared on January 7, 2014. The release of x-class flares, with the high energetic particles, were found to be more intense than that occurred during the main peak of the same cycle. Few X-class flares were released, lately, during the year 2014. We note that during the last 5 solar cycles, a new peak has appeared, releasing high energetic particles and X-class solar flares, which are called the secondary peak or the double peak of solar cycle. The aim of this descriptive study is to follow the morphological and magnetic changes of the active region before, during, and after the production of X-class flares according to data analysis. Furthermore, the causes of the release of such eruptive storms have been discussed for the period, year 2014, during the double peak of the solar cycle 24.

The Space Weather & Ultraviolet Solar Variability Microsatellite Mission (SWUSV)

We present a summary of the scientific objectives, payload and mission profile of the Space Weather & Ultraviolet Solar Variability Microsatellite Mission (SWUSV) proposed to CNES and ESA (small mission).

Energetic Solar activities during cycle 22, 23

Energetic Solar particles and Geomagnetic Indices during the last two cycles were given. The data of the grouped flares and 10.7 cm radio flux were obtained from Solar Geophysical data reports by the US Department of Commerce, during the solar cycle 22 and 23. Power spectrum analyses method were used for the data treatments, to find the intermediate‐term periodicities, 14, 28, 35 are significant. Long‐term periodicities periodicity 154 days appeared, and confirmed with the other results. Halloween storms during Nov. 2003 and its effects on the geomagnetic storms have been studied analytically. The data of amplitude and phase of most common indicators of geomagnetic activities during solar cycle 23 has been analyzed.

Solar activity and space weather changes

Geomagnetic storms have a good correlation with solar activity and solar radiation variability. Many proton events and Geomagnetic storms have occurred during solar cycles21, 22, and 23. The solar activities during the last three cycles, gave us a good indication of the climatic change and its behavior during the 21st century. High energetic eruptive flares were recorded during the decline phase of the last three solar cycles. The appearances of the second peak on the decline phase of solar cycles have been detected. Halloween storms during Nov. 2003 and its effects on the geomagnetic storms have been studied analytically. The data of amplitude and phase of most common indicators of geomagnetic activities during solar cycle 23 have been analyzed.