Ahmed Barkaoui

Accounting for Active Management and Risk Attitude in Forest Sector Models

Given the importance of anthropogenic determinants in forest ecosystems within Europe, the objective of this paper is to link the evidence arising from biological models to socio-economic determinants, where the expected returns of forest investments represent the main driver. A micro-economic area allocation module is therefore coupled with an inventory-based forest dynamics module and a partial-equilibrium market module in a national-level forest sector model for France (FFSM++). Running long-term scenarios (until 2100), we show the implication of an active management policy on forest composition: when the most profitable option drives forest investments, coniferous forests are generally preferred over broadleaved ones. This result is, however, reappraised when the risk aversion of forest owners is explicitly considered in the model, given the higher risk associated with the former. We further show the strong stability of forest ecosystems that, due to the very long cycles, undergoes very small variations in volume stocks, even in scenarios where the initial forest regeneration is strongly influenced.

Fuelwood Consumption, Restrictions about Resource Availability and Public Policies: Impacts on the French Forest Sector

In the context of climate change and of increasing energy prices, the share of fuelwood in primary energy consumption may increase, especially in countries with large forest endowments. However, larger fuelwood consumption may have non-negligible impacts on forest sectors. This paper assesses those impacts for France using a new model of the French forest sector, and comparing four different policy options to boost fuelwood demand. First, supply- and demand-side policies yield very different outcomes, with a trade-off between trade balance and harvest intensity. Second, even a modest increase in fuelwood consumption leads to tensions over forest stock over time under pessimistic views about resource availability.