Ahmed ElSayed

Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute stroke in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE): a case-control study

BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes of stroke. METHODS We completed a standardised international case-control study in 32 countries in Asia, America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptom onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls were hospital-based or community-based individuals with no history of stroke, and were matched with cases, recruited in a 1:1 ratio, for age and sex. All participants completed a clinical assessment and were requested to provide blood and urine samples. Odds ratios (OR) and their population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated, with 99% confidence intervals. FINDINGS Between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015, 26 919 participants were recruited from 32 countries (13 447 cases [10 388 with ischaemic stroke and 3059 intracerebral haemorrhage] and 13 472 controls). Previous history of hypertension or blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or higher (OR 2·98, 99% CI 2·72-3·28; PAR 47·9%, 99% CI 45·1-50·6), regular physical activity (0·60, 0·52-0·70; 35·8%, 27·7-44·7), apolipoprotein (Apo)B/ApoA1 ratio (1·84, 1·65-2·06 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26·8%, 22·2-31·9 for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), diet (0·60, 0·53-0·67 for highest vs lowest tertile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index [mAHEI]; 23·2%, 18·2-28·9 for lowest two tertiles vs highest tertile of mAHEI), waist-to-hip ratio (1·44, 1·27-1·64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18·6%, 13·3-25·3 for top two tertiles vs lowest), psychosocial factors (2·20, 1·78-2·72; 17·4%, 13·1-22·6), current smoking (1·67, 1·49-1·87; 12·4%, 10·2-14·9), cardiac causes (3·17, 2·68-3·75; 9·1%, 8·0-10·2), alcohol consumption (2·09, 1·64-2·67 for high or heavy episodic intake vs never or former drinker; 5·8%, 3·4-9·7 for current alcohol drinker vs never or former drinker), and diabetes mellitus (1·16, 1·05-1·30; 3·9%, 1·9-7·6) were associated with all stroke. Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 90·7% of the PAR for all stroke worldwide (91·5% for ischaemic stroke, 87·1% for intracerebral haemorrhage), and were consistent across regions (ranging from 82·7% in Africa to 97·4% in southeast Asia), sex (90·6% in men and in women), and age groups (92·2% in patients aged ≤55 years, 90·0% in patients aged >55 years). We observed regional variations in the importance of individual risk factors, which were related to variations in the magnitude of ORs (rather than direction, which we observed for diet) and differences in prevalence of risk factors among regions. Hypertension was more associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke, whereas current smoking, diabetes, apolipoproteins, and cardiac causes were more associated with ischaemic stroke (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Ten potentially modifiable risk factors are collectively associated with about 90% of the PAR of stroke in each major region of the world, among ethnic groups, in men and women, and in all ages. However, we found important regional variations in the relative importance of most individual risk factors for stroke, which could contribute to worldwide variations in frequency and case-mix of stroke. Our findings support developing both global and region-specific programmes to prevent stroke. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Health Research Board Ireland, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland (Sweden), AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MSD, Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland, and The Stroke Association, with support from The UK Stroke Research Network.

Characteristics, complications, and gaps in evidence-based interventions in rheumatic heart disease: the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

AIMS Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) accounts for over a million premature deaths annually; however, there is little contemporary information on presentation, complications, and treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS This prospective registry enrolled 3343 patients (median age 28 years, 66.2% female) presenting with RHD at 25 hospitals in 12 African countries, India, and Yemen between January 2010 and November 2012. The majority (63.9%) had moderate-to-severe multivalvular disease complicated by congestive heart failure (33.4%), pulmonary hypertension (28.8%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (21.8%), stroke (7.1%), infective endocarditis (4%), and major bleeding (2.7%). One-quarter of adults and 5.3% of children had decreased left ventricular (LV) systolic function; 23% of adults and 14.1% of children had dilated LVs. Fifty-five percent (n = 1761) of patients were on secondary antibiotic prophylaxis. Oral anti-coagulants were prescribed in 69.5% (n = 946) of patients with mechanical valves (n = 501), AF (n = 397), and high-risk mitral stenosis in sinus rhythm (n = 48). However, only 28.3% (n = 269) had a therapeutic international normalized ratio. Among 1825 women of childbearing age (12-51 years), only 3.6% (n = 65) were on contraception. The utilization of valvuloplasty and valve surgery was higher in upper-middle compared with lower-income countries. CONCLUSION Rheumatic heart disease patients were young, predominantly female, and had high prevalence of major cardiovascular complications. There is suboptimal utilization of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis, oral anti-coagulation, and contraception, and variations in the use of percutaneous and surgical interventions by country income level.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

Background: There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia. Methods: Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis. Results: Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18–40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80–3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70–2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32–2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10–1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54–0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52–0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle–income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle–income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle–income than in lower-middle– or low-income countries. Conclusions: Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle–income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.

Heart Failure in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America: The INTER-CHF study

BACKGROUND There are few data on heart failure (HF) patients from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America. METHODS INTER-CHF is a prospective study that enrolled HF patients in 108 centers in 16 countries from 2012 to 2014. Consecutive ambulatory or hospitalized adult patients with HF were enrolled. Baseline data were recorded on sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, HF etiology and treatments. Age- and sex-adjusted results are reported. RESULTS We recruited 5813 HF patients: mean(SE) age=59(0.2)years, 39% female, 65% outpatients, 31% from rural areas, 26% with HF with preserved ejection fraction, with 1294 from Africa, 2661 from Asia, 1000 from the Middle-East, and 858 from South America. Participants from Africa-closely followed by Asians-were younger, had lower literacy levels, and were less likely to have health or medication insurance or be on beta-blockers compared with participants from other regions, but were most likely to be in NYHA class IV. Participants from South America were older, had higher insurance and literacy levels, and, along with Middle Eastern participants, were more likely to be on beta-blockers, but had the lowest proportion in NYHA IV. Ischemic heart disease was the most common HF etiology in all regions except Africa where hypertensive heart disease was most common. CONCLUSIONS INTER-CHF describes significant regional variability in socioeconomic and clinical factors, etiologies and treatments in HF patients from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America. Opportunities exist for improvement in health/medication insurance rates and proportions of patients on beta blockers, particularly in Africa and Asia.

Heart failure in low- and middle-income countries: Background, rationale, and design of the INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure Study (INTER-CHF)

BACKGROUND Although heart failure (HF) has been referred to as a global epidemic, most HF information comes from high-income countries, with little information about low-income countries (LIC) and middle-income countries (MIC) in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and South America, which make up the majority of the worlds population. METHODS The INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure Study is a cohort study of 5,813 HF patients enrolled in 108 centers in 16 LIC and MIC. At baseline, data were recorded on sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, HF etiology, laboratory variables, management, and barriers to evidence-based HF care at the patient, physician, and system levels. We sought to enroll consecutive and consenting patients ≥18 years of age with a clinical diagnosis of HF seen in outpatient clinics (2/3 of patients) or inpatient hospital wards (1/3 of patients). Patients were followed up at 6 and 12 months post-enrollment to record clinical status, treatments, and clinical outcomes such as death and hospitalizations. In the 5,813 enrolled HF patients, the mean age was 59 ± 15 years, 40% were female, 62% had a history of hypertension, 30% had diabetes, 21% had prior myocardial infarction, 64% were recruited from outpatient clinics, 36% lived in rural areas, and 29% had HF with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS This unique HF registry aims to systematically gather information on sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, etiologies, treatments, barriers to evidence-based care, and outcomes of HF in LIC and MIC. This information will help improve the management of HF globally.

The BMJ article wrongly taints medical teaching in Sudan

We are a group of senior Sudanese doctors from four different universities in Sudan. While working in UK or Irish hospitals we were impressed by The BMJ ’s scientific knowledge and authoritative opinion pieces. We were therefore surprised that Gardham’s two articles were deemed fit for publication and were featured on the cover.1 2 …

Healthcare Leaders Develop Strategies for Expanding National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anaesthesia Plans in WHO AFRO and EMRO Regions

BackgroundWorldwide, five billion people lack access to safe, affordable surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia (SOA) care when needed. In many countries, a growing commitment to SOA care is culminating in the development of national surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia plans (NSOAPs) that are fully embedded in the National Health Strategic Plan. This manuscript highlights the content and outputs from a World Health Organization (WHO) lead workshop that supported country-led plans for improving SOA care as a component of health system strengthening.MethodsIn March 2018, a group of 79 high-level global SOA stakeholders from 25 countries in the WHO AFRO and EMRO regions gathered in Dubai to provide technical and strategic guidance for the creation and expansion of NSOAPs.ResultsDrawing on the experience and expertise of represented countries that are at different stages of the NSOAP process, topics covered included (1) the global burden of surgical, obstetric, and anaesthetic conditions; (2) the key principles and components of NSOAP development; (3) the critical evaluation and feasibility of different models of NSOAP implementation; and (4) innovative financing mechanisms to fund NSOAPs.ConclusionsLessons learned include: (1) there is unmet need for the establishment of an NSOAP community in order to provide technical support, expertise, and mentorship at a regional level; (2) data should be used to inform future priorities, for monitoring and evaluation and to showcase advances in care following NSOAP implementation; and (3) SOA health system strengthening must be uniquely prioritized and not hidden within other health strategies.