Ahmed Mebarki

Integrated probabilistic framework for domino effect and risk analysis

The present paper deals with domino effect analysis for industrial facilities. Actually, an explosion or accident may generate various sets of projectiles. In their trajectory, they may impact other existing facilities, such as tanks under high-pressure or other strategic components or installations (headquarters, etc). If the impacted targets fail, this may give rise to other sets of projectiles and so on. These potential series of accidents are known as domino effect. A probabilistic approach is developed by the authors. The probability of domino effect occurrence requires three main steps:-Probabilistic modelling of the source term (first set of projectiles): probability of the first explosion occurrence and therefore number, masses, velocities, departure angles, geometrical shape and dimensions, constitutive materials properties are described with probabilistic distributions. -Probabilistic modelling of the target term (first set of impacted targets): number of impacting projectiles, velocities, incidence angles and energy at impact, constitutive materials and the dimensions of the impacted targets, projectiles penetration depths into the targets are also described with probabilistic distributions. -Evaluation of the risks of second set of explosions that may take place in the impacted components. Simulations (3D) are done within this probabilistic framework:-For the probabilistic description of the source term, the authors have collected existing models from the literature. -The authors propose new models for the impact (probability of impact which depends on the trajectory and geometry of both the target and projectile: ellipses, cylinders and planar plates, in a first step) and the penetration depth when there is impact. A simplified mechanical model is actually developed in the case of cylindrical rods impacting rectangular plates, both are metal made. The estimated penetration depth into the target is compared to the experimental data (4 data sets) collected from the literature with the following features: projectile masses ranging from 0.1g up to 250kg, projectile velocities ranging from 10m/s up to 2100m/s, projectile diameters ranging from 1.5mm up to 90mm, target strengths ranging from 300MPa up to 1400MPa and incidence angles ranging from 0^o up to 70^o. Monte-Carlo simulations are ran in order to calculate the different probabilities: probability of impact, distribution of the penetration depth and probability of domino effect.

Domino Effects and Industrial Risks : Integrated Probabilistic Framework - Case of Tsunamis Effects

This paper presents an integrated probabilistic framework that deals with the industrial accidents and domino effects that may occur in an industrial plant. The particular case of tsunamis is detailed in the present paper: simplified models for the inundations depths and run-ups as well as their mechanical effects on industrial tanks.

Seismic risk and damage prediction: case of the buildings in Constantine city (Algeria)

Located at the North-Eastern part of Algeria (Tellian Atlas), Constantine has crucial administrative, economic, scientific and cultural importance. It has continuously experienced significant urban evolutions during the different periods of its history. The city is located in an active seismic region within Algeria and has been struck in the past by several moderate and strong earthquakes. The strongest earthquake recorded since the beginning of instrumental seismology took place on October 27, 1985 with a magnitude M

Indoor guided evacuation: TIN for graph generation and crowd evacuation

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Natural hazards, vulnerability and structural resilience: tsunamis and industrial tanks

S= 5.9. Constantine presents a high seismic risk, because of its dense housing and high population density (2,374 inhabitants/km

Fiabilité des murs de contreventement en maçonnerie: Calibration des coefficients partiels d'un modèle simplifié

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