Ahmed Suliman

Readmission and death after an acute heart failure event: predictors and outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: results from the THESUS-HF registry

AIMS Contrary to elderly patients with ischaemic-related acute heart failure (AHF) typically enrolled in North American and European registries, patients enrolled in the sub-Saharan Africa Survey of Heart Failure (THESUS-HF) were middle-aged with AHF due primarily to non-ischaemic causes. We sought to describe factors prognostic of re-admission and death in this developing population. METHODS AND RESULTS Prognostic models were developed from data collected on 1006 patients enrolled in THESUS-HF, a prospective registry of AHF patients in 12 hospitals in nine sub-Saharan African countries, mostly in Nigeria, Uganda, and South Africa. The main predictors of 60-day re-admission or death in a model excluding the geographic region were a history of malignancy and severe lung disease, admission systolic blood pressure, heart rate and signs of congestion (rales), kidney function (BUN), and echocardiographic ejection fraction. In a model including region, the Southern region had a higher risk. Age and admission sodium levels were not prognostic. Predictors of 180-day mortality included malignancy, severe lung disease, smoking history, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and symptoms and signs of congestion (orthopnoea, peripheral oedema and rales) at admission, kidney dysfunction (BUN), anaemia, and HIV positivity. Discrimination was low for all models, similar to models for European and North American patients, suggesting that the main factors contributing to adverse outcomes are still unknown. CONCLUSION Despite the differences in age and disease characteristics, the main predictors for 6 months mortality and combined 60 days re-admission and death are largely similar in sub-Saharan Africa as in the rest of the world, with some exceptions such as the association of the HIV status with mortality.

The state of heart disease in Sudan : review article

Abstract Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide and an important cause of disability. In Africa, the burden of CVD is increasing rapidly and it is now a public health concern. Epidemiological data on diseases is scarce and fragmented on the continent. Aim To review available data on the epidemiology and pattern of heart disease in Sudan. Methods Data were obtained from the Sudan Household Survey (SHHS) 2006, annual health statistical reports of the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health, the STEPS survey of chronic disease risk factors in Sudan/Khartoum, and journal publications. Results The SHHS reported a prevalence of 2.5% for heart disease. Hypertensive heart disease (HHD), rheumatic heart disease (RHD), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cardiomyopathy constitute more than 80% of CVD in Sudan. Hypertension (HTN) had a prevalence of 20.1 and 20.4% in the SHHS and STEPS survey, respectively. There were poor control rates and a high prevalence of target-organ damage in the local studies. RHD prevalence data were available only for Khartoum state and the incidence has dropped from 3/1 000 people in the 1980s to 0.3% in 2003. There were no data on any other states. The coronary event rates in 1989 were 112/100 000 people, with a total mortality of 36/100 000. Prevalence rates of low physical activity, obesity, HTN, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes and smoking were 86.8, 53.9, 23.6, 19.8, 19.2 and 12%, respectively, in the STEPS survey. Peripartum cardiomyopathy occurs at a rate of 1.5% of all deliveries. Congenital heart disease is prevalent in 0.2% of children. Conclusion Heart diseases are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in Sudan. The tetrad of hypertension, RHD, IHD and cardiomyopathy constitute the bulk of CVD. Hypertension is prevalent, with poor control rates. A decline in rheumatic heart disease was seen in the capital state and no data were available on other parts of the country. No recent data on IHD were available. Peripartum cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease occur at similar rates to those in other African countries.

Echocardiographic predictors of outcome in acute heart failure patients in sub-saharan africa: insights from THESUS-HF

Summary Background: The role of echocardiography in the risk stratification of acute heart failure (HF) is unknown. Some small studies and retrospective analyses have found little change in echocardiographic variables during admission for acute HF and some echocardiographic parameters were not found to be associated with outcomes. It is unknown which echocardiographic variables will predict outcomes in sub-Saharan African patients admitted with acute HF. Using echocardiograms, this study aimed to determine the predictors of death and re-admissions within 60 days and deaths up to 180 days in patients with acute heart failure. Methods: Out of the 1 006 patients in the THESUS-HF registry, 954 had had an echocardiogram performed within a few weeks of admission. Echocardiographic measurements were performed according to the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines. We examined the associations between each echocardiographic predictor and outcome using regression models. Results: Heart rate and left atrial size predicted death within 60 days or re-admission. Heart rate, left ventricular posterior wall thickness in diastole (PWTd), and presence of aortic stenosis were associated with the risk of death within 180 days. PTWd added to clinical variables in predicting 180-day mortality rates. Conclusions: Echocardiographic variables, especially those of left ventricular size and function, were not found to have additional predictive value in patients admitted for acute HF. Left atrial size, aortic stenosis, heart rate and measures of hypertrophy (LV PWTd) had some predictive value, suggesting the importance of early treatment of hypertension and severe valvular heart disease.