Ahmet Faruk Aysan

MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AS BUFFER AGAINST VOLATILE CROSS-BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS

This paper investigates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies introduced by Turkey in late 2010. The unprecedented quantitative easing policies of advanced countries after the global financial crisis have presented serious financial stability concerns for most emerging countries including Turkey. To cope with these challenges, Turkey has devised new policy tools such as asymmetric interest rate corridor and reserve option mechanism. From the perspective of capital flows, the interest rate corridor works mainly through stabilizing supply of foreign funds, and the reserve option mechanism through decreasing the sensitivity of equilibrium exchange rate to shifts in the demand for foreign funds. Using a large panel of 46 countries and employing [Bruno and Shin (2013a). Capital flows, cross-border banking and Global liquidity. Working paper, Princeton university; Bruno and Shin (2013b). Assessing macroprudential policies: Case of Korea. Working paper, Princeton university] methodology, we investigate whether the new policy framework in Turkey has been successful in cushioning the economy from volatile cross-border capital flows from a comparative perspective. The results show that, after controlling for a set of domestic and external variables and relative to a group of advanced and emerging countries, cross-border capital flows to Turkey have been less sensitive to global factors after the implementation of macroprudential policies.

Are Islamic Banks Subject to Depositor Discipline

We look at market discipline in the Islamic deposit market of Turkey for the period after the 2000 crisis. We find support for quantity based disciplining of Islamic banks through the capital ratio. The evidence for price disciplining is, however, less convincing. In addition, we also look at the effect of the deposit insurance reform in which the dual deposit insurance was revised and all banks were put under the same deposit insurance company in December 2005. We observe that the reform increased quantity based disciplining in the Turkish Islamic deposit market.

Credit Card Satisfaction and Financial Literacy: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy

Default problems and complaints about credit cards do not seem to diminish with declining credit card rates. Using a nationwide credit card user survey, we try to identify the determinants of customer satisfaction in the Turkish credit card market. Controlling for customer and card characteristics, we find that financial literacy is a major determinant of satisfaction. When people know more about financial matters and use their knowledge in their financial activities, they make more efficient decisions and have fewer financial problems, which in turn leads to higher satisfaction. We also find that people who tend to use their credit cards for unnecessary shopping and who have a history of credit card delinquency are less satisfied.

Bank lending channel in a dual banking system: Why are Islamic banks so responsive?

We examine the interest rate sensitivity of both deposits and credits at Islamic and con- ventional banks in Turkey. We find that the bank lending channel is especially operative for Islamic banks. Impulse responses for conventional and Islamic banks reveal that Islamic bank depositors’ sensitivity to policy rate changes are substantially larger than that of con- ventional bank depositors. Next to heavily dependence on deposit funding, we consider that inertia in Islamic bank deposit rates impedes these banks to keep those depositors who con- sider the opportunity cost of monetary policy rates is unbearable. At the lending side, we obtain similar results, implying that tight monetary policy leads to a larger contraction in Islamic bank credits. This finding is a reflection of the favorable attitude of Islamic banks towards SME financing. When similar relationships are analysed for currency and inflation shocks, we again find larger responses for Islamic banks showing the cyclical nature of SME credits.

FINANCIAL CRISIS, MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES AND DEPOSITOR DISCIPLINE

This paper examines to what extent macroprudential policies in the Turkish banking sector affected the functioning of depositor discipline. Our results suggest that depositors’ responses for poor bank performance get stronger after the 2008 crisis, when various macroprudential measures were implemented to preserve financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, bank behavior toward depositors also alters. Ahead of the crisis, banks did not significantly respond to the discipline exerted by depositors, however, banks begin offering higher rates to curb deposit withdrawals afterwards. Our findings suggest that the implementation of macroprudential tools seem to have a positive impact on financial stability, since, in the post-2008 period, regulatory supervision have been more firmly assisted by the market.

Sustaining Growth in Emerging Markets: The Role of Structural and Monetary Policies in Turkey

The last decade witnessed an unprecedented economic growth in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). EMEs have also been the main drivers of growth in the recovery following the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, EMEs continue to face a number of institutional and structural challenges that may pose risks to the sustainability of their recent growth performance, with potentially significant repercussions for the world economy. In this paper, we present a detailed account of Turkey’s experience in dealing with various institutional and structural challenges during the last decade and provide evidence that taking the right steps can enable EMEs materialize their full growth potential going forward. Successful institutional and structural reforms can also provide room for monetary policymakers to effectively navigate their economies through turbulent times such as the recent global financial crisis.

Bank Competition and Outreach: Evidence from Turkey

In light of the importance of banking sector outreach and given concerns that competition may adversely affect it, this study explores the empirical linkage between banking structure and outreach in Turkey for the period 1988-2010. Bank-, province-, and bank-province-level estimation results indicate that competition is in general conducive to the outreach of banks. We do not find evidence for collusive behavior among banks when they have multimarket contact. At the province level, the presence of foreign-owned banks is associated with higher outreach, while at the bank-province level, we observe that outreach of domestic banks exceeds that of foreign banks. Together, these results suggest that there are procompetitive spillover effects from foreign banks to their domestic counterparts.

Macroeconomic Drivers of Loan Quality in Turkey

ABSTRACT We analyze the drivers of nonperforming loans in the Turkish banking system after the 2000–01 Turkish banking crisis. By constructing a vector autoregression model, we perform dynamic out-of-sample forecasts, which yield quite accurate results compared to the actual data. Since forecasting is a very crucial tool for both policy makers and market players, these results are some of the main strengths and contributions of this study. This article shows various patterns between the economic and financial indicators and the nonperforming loans. One important message obtained from the results is that policy makers should be concerned about the status of the economy and the market expectations to maintain stability in the banking system.

On the Path to High-Income Status or to Middle-Income Trap: The Turkish Economy in Search of Its Future

The growth episode of the Turkish economy in the 2000s was written based on two integrated fundamentals: fixing the deteriorating dynamics and implementing further reforms to stimulate economic activity. This basic formula led to attractive rates of economic growth, fueled particularly by domestic private investments along with revived consumption and exports. Integrated with the political stability established by single-party governments in the post-2002 period, the improving economic outlook also helped Turkey enjoy record levels of foreign investment, adding momentum to the growth story.

Macroeconomic shocks and Islamic bank behavior in Turkey

Events such as the ‘credit crunch’, ‘bank run’, ‘financial contagion’, ‘flight to quality’ and ‘systemic risks’ have widely transpired in recent times. One important dimension permeating these events is the dynamic link between macroeconomic shocks and banks’ behaviour. Economic crises experienced by five East Asian countries in the late 1990s were accompanied by financial sector problems. The Great Recession of the late 2000s also corresponded to heightened solvency risks affecting over-leveraged banks and financial institutions in many developed countries. In a world of imperfect information, adverse macroeconomic shocks could weaken firms’ balance sheets, diminish bank capital and trigger financial disintermediation. Positive shocks, on the contrary, could increase firms’ net worth and prompt additional bank lending. Understanding the nature of this interaction offers regulators, supervisors, firms and households valuable insights into the process of policymaking, financial intermediation and responding to boom and bust cycles in the economy.