Aiden Sidebottom

Theft in Price-Volatile Markets: On the Relationship between Copper Price and Copper Theft

Recently, against a backdrop of general reductions in acquisitive crime, increases have been observed in the frequency of metal theft offences. This is generally attributed to increases in metal prices in response to global demand exceeding supply. The main objective of this article was to examine the relationship between the price of copper and levels of copper theft, focusing specifically on copper cable theft from the British railway network. Results indicated a significant positive correlation between lagged increases in copper price and copper cable theft. No support was found for rival hypotheses concerning U.K. unemployment levels and the general popularity of theft as crime type. An ancillary aim was to explore offender modus operandi over time, which is discussed in terms of its implications for preventing copper cable theft. The authors finish with a discussion of theft of other commodities in price-volatile markets.

Copper Cable Theft Revisiting the Price–Theft Hypothesis

Objectives: To test the commonly espoused but little examined hypothesis that fluctuations in the price of metal are associated with changes in the volume of metal theft. Specifically, we analyze the relationship between the price of copper and the number of police recorded “live” copper cable thefts from the British railway network (2006 to 2012). Method: Time-series analysis was performed using 76 months of data to determine the association between mean copper price and police recorded “live” copper cable theft. Two rival hypotheses, that changes in the theft of copper cabling reflect changes in the theft of railway property more generally (or the reporting thereof) or variations in the rate of unemployment, were also tested. Results: We find support for the price–theft hypothesis: Changes in the price of copper were positively associated with variations in the volume of “live” copper cable theft. A downward trend in copper cable theft in recent years is also observed, although the mechanism/mechanisms underpinning this pattern is unclear. Conclusion: The theft of “live” copper cable is associated with fluctuations in copper price. As such, it differs substantially from the “crime drop” typically noted for most types of crime providing further support for the price–theft hypothesis.

On the application of CRAVED to livestock theft in Malawi

Livestock theft is common in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Experience of theft can deplete household assets and food resources. This article reports the findings of an exploratory study to investigate whether livestock theft patterns in Malawi reflect variations in the extent to which different animals are “CRAVED” (Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable, and Disposable), Clarkes mnemonic to explain preferences for items to steal. Measures of the elements of CRAVED were correlated with self-reported levels of theft for seven species of livestock using data from a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of 11,280 households. Higher availability and disposability of livestock were significantly associated with higher levels of theft. Livestock displaying more CRAVED attributes were also stolen in greater numbers. The findings are cautiously interpreted as suggesting that livestock theft in Malawi is largely opportunistic. Implications from and for the application of CRAVED to livestock theft in Malawi are discussed.

On police and university collaborations: a problem-oriented policing case study

This paper describes the origins, development and experience of an extended collaborative relationship between the UCL Jill Dando Institute (JDI) of Security and Crime Science at University College London and Warwickshire Police and Warwickshire County Council. This is discussed in the context of a practitioner-led problem-oriented policing project to reduce bag theft from British supermarkets. The case study highlights many of the ways in which universities and police and partnership agencies can work fruitfully with one another. Our hope is that the case study might yield insights into potential determinants of effective academic–practitioner collaborations.

Gating Alleys to Reduce Crime: A Meta-Analysis and Realist Synthesis

Alley gates are designed to limit access to alleys and the crime opportunities they afford. Informed by the acronym EMMIE we sought to: (1) systematically review the evidence on whether alley gates are Effective at reducing crime, (2) identify the causal Mechanisms through which alley gates are expected to work and the conditions that Moderate effectiveness, and (3) collate information on the Implementation and Economic costs of alley gating. The results of our meta-analysis suggest that alley gating is associated with modest but significant reductions in burglary, with little evidence of spatial displacement. We also identified six mechanisms through which alley gates might plausibly reduce crime, and the conditions in which such mechanisms are most likely to be activated.

A systematic review of tagging as a method to reduce theft in retail environments

BackgroundRetailers routinely use security tags to reduce theft. Presently, however, there has been no attempt to systematically review the literature on security tags. Guided by the acronym EMMIE, this paper set out to (1) examine the evidence that tags are effective at reducing theft, (2) identify the key mechanisms through which tags are expected to reduce theft and the conditions that moderate tag effectiveness, and (3) summarise information relevant to the implementation and economic costs of tagging.MethodsIn this mixed-methods review, we performed systematic keyword searches of the published and unpublished literature, hand searched relevant journals, conducted forward and backward citation searches and consulted with four retailers. Studies were included if they reported an explicit goal of reducing the theft or shrinkage of items through the use of security tags in retail environments.ResultsWe identified 50 eligible studies, eight of which reported quantitative data on the effectiveness of tags in retail environments. Across these eight studies, five showed positive results associated with the introduction of tags, but heterogeneity in the type of tag and reported outcome measures precluded a meta-analysis. We identified three mechanisms through which tags might plausibly reduce theft—increase the risks, reduce the rewards, increase the effort—which were found to vary by tag type, and their activation dependent on five broad categories of moderator: retail store and staff, customers (including shoplifters), tag type, product type, and the involvement of the police and criminal justice system. Implementation challenges documented in the literature related mainly to staffing issues and tagging strategy. Finally, although estimates are available on the costs of tagging, our searches identified no high-quality published economic evaluations of tagging.ConclusionsThrough applying the EMMIE framework this review highlighted the complexity involved in security tagging in retail environments, whereby different kinds of tags are expected to reduce theft through different casual mechanisms which are dependent on a distinctive configuration of conditions. Based on the available evidence it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of tags as a theft reduction measure, albeit there is suggestive evidence that more visible tags are associated with greater reductions in theft than less visible tags.

Understanding and Preventing Lead Theft from Churches: A Script Analysis

The story of mankind is a story of metals. Human use of metals can be traced back at least as far as 6000 BC. Throughout human history it has provided the material to make better tools, fashion stronger weaponry and armour, build taller buildings and adorn decorative items. It also has a long history as a desirable item to steal.

The East Asian crime drop

The ‘crime drop’ refers to the substantial reductions in crime reported in many industrialised countries over at least the past quarter century. Asian countries are underrepresented in the crime drop literature. Little is therefore known about whether the same type and levels of crime reductions have been observed, and if prevailing explanations hold. In this study, we examine trends in burglary and car crime using police recorded crime data from Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan. We show that Japan and Taiwan experienced crime drops similar to that reported elsewhere but occurring more recently in the early 2000s. Hong Kong appears anomalous, with a major crime decline emerging from the early 1980s. The study concludes that there is sufficient evidence to justify further research and sets out suggestions to that end.

Quantitative energy-dispersive x-ray diffraction for identification of counterfeit medicines: a preliminary study

The prevalence of counterfeit and substandard medicines has been growing rapidly over the past decade, and fast, nondestructive techniques for their detection are urgently needed to counter this trend. In this study, energy-dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD) combined with chemometrics was assessed for its effectiveness in quantitative analysis of compressed powder mixtures. Although EDXRD produces lower-resolution diffraction patterns than angular-dispersive X-ray diffraction (ADXRD), it is of interest for this application as it carries the advantage of allowing the analysis of tablets within their packaging, due to the higher energy X-rays used. A series of caffeine, paracetamol and microcrystalline cellulose mixtures were prepared with compositions between 0 - 100 weight% in 20 weight% steps (22 samples in total, including a centroid mixture), and were pressed into tablets. EDXRD spectra were collected in triplicate, and a principal component analysis (PCA) separated these into their correct positions in the ternary mixture design. A partial least-squares (PLS) regression model calibrated using this training set was validated using both segmented cross-validation, and with a test set of six samples (mixtures in 8:1:1 and 5⅓:2⅓:2⅓ ratios) – the latter giving a root-mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 1.30, 2.25 and 2.03 weight% for caffeine, paracetamol and cellulose respectively. These initial results are promising, with RMSEP values on a par with those reported in the ADXRD literature.

On the development and application of EMMIE: insights from the What Works Centre for Crime Reduction

ABSTRACT The What Works Centre for Crime Reduction was established in September 2013 with the aim of increasing the use of research evidence by decision-makers in policing and crime reduction. The EMMIE framework was developed to meet this aim. It encapsulates five broad categories of research evidence that are considered relevant to crime reduction, namely Effect size, Mechanism, Moderator (or context), Implementation and Economics. In this paper, we chart the origins and development of EMMIE. We also reflect on our experience of applying EMMIE both as a coding system to appraise systematic review evidence and as a framework to inform the design and conduct of systematic reviews in crime reduction. We conclude with a critique of EMMIE and with suggestions on how it might be developed and refined in the future.