Aileen Clarke

Developing a quality criteria framework for patient decision aids: online international Delphi consensus process

Abstract Objective To develop a set of quality criteria for patient decision support technologies (decision aids). Design and setting Two stage web based Delphi process using online rating process to enable international collaboration. Participants Individuals from four stakeholder groups (researchers, practitioners, patients, policy makers) representing 14 countries reviewed evidence summaries and rated the importance of 80 criteria in 12 quality domains ona1to9 scale. Second round participants received feedback from the first round and repeated their assessment of the 80 criteria plus three new ones. Main outcome measure Aggregate ratings for each criterion calculated using medians weighted to compensate for different numbers in stakeholder groups; criteria rated between 7 and 9 were retained. Results 212 nominated people were invited to participate. Of those invited, 122 participated in the first round (77 researchers, 21 patients, 10 practitioners, 14 policy makers); 104/122 (85%) participated in the second round. 74 of 83 criteria were retained in the following domains: systematic development process (9/9 criteria); providing information about options (13/13); presenting probabilities (11/13); clarifying and expressing values (3/3); using patient stories (2/5); guiding/coaching (3/5); disclosing conflicts of interest (5/5); providing internet access (6/6); balanced presentation of options (3/3); using plain language (4/6); basing information on up to date evidence (7/7); and establishing effectiveness (8/8). Conclusions Criteria were given the highest ratings where evidence existed, and these were retained. Gaps in research were highlighted. Developers, users, and purchasers of patient decision aids now have a checklist for appraising quality. An instrument for measuring quality of decision aids is being developed.

Levels of vitamin D and cardiometabolic disorders: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Cardiometabolic disorders and vitamin D deficiency are becoming increasingly more prevalent across multiple populations. Different studies have suggested a potential association between abnormal vitamin D levels and multiple pathological conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. We aimed to evaluate the association between vitamin D levels, using 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) as an indicator of vitamin D status, and the presence of cardiometabolic disorders including cardiovascular disease, diabetes and metabolic syndrome. We performed a systematic review of the current literature on vitamin D and cardiometabolic disorders using the PubMed and Web of Knowledge databases in September 2009. Studies in adults looking at the effect of vitamin D levels on outcomes relating to cardiometabolic disorders were selected. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic disorders comparing the highest and lowest groups of serum 25OHD. From 6130 references we identified 28 studies that met our inclusion criteria, including 99,745 participants. There was moderate variation between the studies in their grouping of 25OHD levels, design and analytical approach. We found that the highest levels of serum 25OHD were associated with a 43% reduction in cardiometabolic disorders [OR 0.57, 95% (CI 0.48-0.68)]. Similar levels were observed, irrespective of the individual cardiometabolic outcome evaluated or study design. High levels of vitamin D among middle-age and elderly populations are associated with a substantial decrease in cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. If the relationship proves to be causal, interventions targeting vitamin D deficiency in adult populations could potentially slow the current epidemics of cardiometabolic disorders.

Indications for and outcome of total abdominal hysterectomy for benign disease : a prospective cohort study

Objective To describe the indications for total abdominal hysterectomy for women with nonmalignant disease and to determine the immediate (initial ten days) and medium term outcome.

Severe complications of hysterectomy: The VALUE study

Objectives  To model the determinants of serious operative and post‐operative complications of hysterectomy and their potential risk factors.

Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): Validated for teenage school students in England and Scotland. A mixed methods assessment

BackgroundUnderstanding and measuring mental health and wellbeing amongst teenagers has recently become a priority. The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS) is validated for measuring mental wellbeing in populations aged 16 years and over in the UK. We report here a study designed to establish the validity and reliability of WEMWBS in teenagers in the UK.MethodsWEMWBS and comparator scales, together with socio-demographic information and self-reported health, were incorporated into a self-administered questionnaire given to pupils aged 13 to 16 years in six schools in Scotland and England. Psychometric properties including internal consistency, correlations with comparator scales, test-retest stability and unidimensionality were investigated for WEMWBS. Twelve focus groups were undertaken to assess acceptability and comprehensibility of WEMWBS and were taped, transcribed and analysed thematically.ResultsA total of 1,650 teenagers completed the questionnaire (response rate 80.8%). Mean WEMWBS score was 48.8 (SD 6.8; median 49). Response scores covered the full range (from 14 to 70). WEMWBS demonstrated strong internal consistency and a high Cronbachs alpha of 0.87 (95% CI (0.85-0.88), n = 1517). Measures of construct validity gave values as predicted. The correlation coefficient for WEMWBS total score and psychological wellbeing domain of the Kidscreen-27 was 0.59 (95% CI [0.55; 0.62]); for the Mental Health Continuum Short Form (MHC-SF) was 0.65, 95% CI [0.62; 0.69]; and for the WHO (WHO-5) Well-being Index 0.57 (95% CI [0.53; 0.61]). The correlation coefficient for the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was -0.44 (95% CI [-0.49; -0.40]) and for the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) -0.45 (95% CI [-0.49; -0.40]). Test-retest reliability was acceptable (Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.66 (95% CI [0.59; 0.72] n = 212)). Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated one underlying factor.WEMWBS was significantly associated with the Family Affluence Score (WEMWBS increased with increasing household socio-economic status) and had a positive association with the physical health dimension of the Kidscreen-27, but was unrelated to age, gender or location/school. Eighty students took part in focus groups. In general, although some students considered some items open to misunderstanding or misinterpretation, WEMWBS was received positively and was considered comprehensible, and acceptable.ConclusionsWEMWBS is a psychometrically strong population measure of mental wellbeing, and can be used for this purpose in teenagers aged 13 and over.

Social networks – The future for health care delivery

With the rapid growth of online social networking for health, health care systems are experiencing an inescapable increase in complexity. This is not necessarily a drawback; self-organising, adaptive networks could become central to future health care delivery. This paper considers whether social networks composed of patients and their social circles can compete with, or complement, professional networks in assembling health-related information of value for improving health and health care. Using the framework of analysis of a two-sided network--patients and providers--with multiple platforms for interaction, we argue that the structure and dynamics of such a network has implications for future health care. Patients are using social networking to access and contribute health information. Among those living with chronic illness and disability and engaging with social networks, there is considerable expertise in assessing, combining and exploiting information. Social networking is providing a new landscape for patients to assemble health information, relatively free from the constraints of traditional health care. However, health information from social networks currently complements traditional sources rather than substituting for them. Networking among health care provider organisations is enabling greater exploitation of health information for health care planning. The platforms of interaction are also changing. Patient-doctor encounters are now more permeable to influence from social networks and professional networks. Diffuse and temporary platforms of interaction enable discourse between patients and professionals, and include platforms controlled by patients. We argue that social networking has the potential to change patterns of health inequalities and access to health care, alter the stability of health care provision and lead to a reformulation of the role of health professionals. Further research is needed to understand how network structure combined with its dynamics will affect the flow of information and potentially the allocation of health care resources.

Are readmissions avoidable

OBJECTIVE--To examine the possible use of readmission rates as an outcome indicator of hospital inpatient care by investigating avoidability of unplanned readmissions within 28 days of discharge. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis of a stratified random sample of case notes of patients with an unplanned readmission between July 1987 and June 1988 by nine clinical assessors (263 assessments) and categorisation of the readmission as avoidable, unavoidable, or unclassifiable. SETTING--District in North East Thames region. 481 General medical, geriatric, and general surgical inpatients with a readmission at 0-6 days or 21-27 days after the first (index) discharge between July 1987 and June 1988 from whom 100 case notes were selected randomly and of which 74 were available for study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Assessment of readmissions as avoidable, unavoidable, unclassifiable, variability of assessment within cases and variability among assessors according to specialty and duration to readmission. RESULTS--General medical and geriatric readmissions and surgical readmissions at 0-6 days after discharge were more likely to be assessed as avoidable than those at 21-27 days (medical readmissions 32 v 6%, surgical admissions 49 v 19%). General surgical readmissions were significantly more frequently assessed as avoidable than general medical and geriatric readmissions. The extent of agreement between doctors varied, with general medical and geriatric readmissions at 21-27 days after first discharge causing the greatest variability of judgment. CONCLUSIONS--Differences were apparent in the extent of avoidability of readmissions in different groups of admissions. However, assessors rated only 49.3% of the group with the highest proportion of avoidable admissions (surgical readmissions at 0-6 days) as avoidable. The remainder were thought to be unavoidable except for 2%, which could not be classified. The use of readmission rates as an outcome indicator of hospital inpatient care should be avoided.

Aspirin for prophylactic use in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer: a systematic review and overview of reviews

BACKGROUND Prophylactic aspirin has been considered to be beneficial in reducing the risks of heart disease and cancer. However, potential benefits must be balanced against the possible harm from side effects, such as bleeding and gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. It is particularly important to know the risk of side effects when aspirin is used as primary prevention--that is when used by people as yet free of, but at risk of developing, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer. In this report we aim to identify and re-analyse randomised controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews and meta-analyses to summarise the current scientific evidence with a focus on possible harms of prophylactic aspirin in primary prevention of CVD and cancer. OBJECTIVES To identify RCTs, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of RCTs of the prophylactic use of aspirin in primary prevention of CVD or cancer. To undertake a quality assessment of identified systematic reviews and meta-analyses using meta-analysis to investigate study-level effects on estimates of benefits and risks of adverse events; cumulative meta-analysis; exploratory multivariable meta-regression; and to quantify relative and absolute risks and benefits. METHODS We identified RCTs, meta-analyses and systematic reviews, and searched electronic bibliographic databases (from 2008 September 2012) including MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, and Science Citation Index. We limited searches to publications since 2008, based on timing of the most recent comprehensive systematic reviews. RESULTS In total, 2572 potentially relevant papers were identified and 27 met the inclusion criteria. Benefits of aspirin ranged from 6% reduction in relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality [RR 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.00] and 10% reduction in major cardiovascular events (MCEs) (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.96) to a reduction in total coronary heart disease (CHD) of 15% (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.06). Reported pooled odds ratios (ORs) for total cancer mortality ranged between 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.88) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.03). Inclusion of the Womens Health Study changed the estimated OR to 0.82 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.97). Aspirin reduced reported colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.02). However, including studies in which aspirin was given every other day raised the OR to 0.91 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.11). Reported cancer benefits appeared approximately 5 years from start of treatment. Calculation of absolute effects per 100,000 patient-years of follow-up showed reductions ranging from 33 to 46 deaths (all-cause mortality), 60-84 MCEs and 47-64 incidents of CHD and a possible avoidance of 34 deaths from CRC. Reported increased RRs of adverse events from aspirin use were 37% for GI bleeding (RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.62), between 54% (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.82) and 62% (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.00) for major bleeds, and between 32% (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.74) and 38% (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.82) for haemorrhagic stroke. Pooled estimates of increased RR for bleeding remained stable across trials conducted over several decades. Estimates of absolute rates of harm from aspirin use, per 100,000 patient-years of follow-up, were 99-178 for non-trivial bleeds, 46-49 for major bleeds, 68-117 for GI bleeds and 8-10 for haemorrhagic stroke. Meta-analyses aimed at judging risk of bleed according to sex and in individuals with diabetes were insufficiently powered for firm conclusions to be drawn. LIMITATIONS Searches were date limited to 2008 because of the intense interest that this subject has generated and the cataloguing of all primary research in so many previous systematic reviews. A further limitation was our potential over-reliance on study-level systematic reviews in which the person-years of follow-up were not accurately ascertainable. However, estimates of number of events averted or incurred through aspirin use calculated from data in study-level meta-analyses did not differ substantially from estimates based on individual patient data-level meta-analyses, for which person-years of follow-up were more accurate (although based on less-than-complete assemblies of currently available primary studies). CONCLUSIONS We have found that there is a fine balance between benefits and risks from regular aspirin use in primary prevention of CVD. Effects on cancer prevention have a long lead time and are at present reliant on post hoc analyses. All absolute effects are relatively small compared with the burden of these diseases. Several potentially relevant ongoing trials will be completed between 2013 and 2019, which may clarify the extent of benefit of aspirin in reducing cancer incidence and mortality. Future research considerations include expanding the use of IPD meta-analysis of RCTs by pooling data from available studies and investigating the impact of different dose regimens on cardiovascular and cancer outcomes. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Measuring readmission rates.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the feasibility of extracting data on readmissions and readmission rates from Körner data for use as health service indicators. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis of inpatient Körner data for January 1988 to April 1989. SETTING--Three districts in North East Thames region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Number of readmissions after index discharge for all acute specialties combined and by specialty (general medicine, general surgery, gynaecology, trauma and orthopaedics, and geriatrics); readmission rates at 28 days after index discharge; and rates standardised for age group and sex by specialty and by consultant. RESULTS--All specialties showed an early peak in number of admissions, which levelled off by 28 days. Readmission rates at 28 days were appreciably lower in surgical specialties than in medical specialties (for example, general surgery 4.1% v geriatric medicine 15.1%). They were related to age and sex of the patient. Rates standardised for these variables did not significantly differ by district. Likewise, significant differences in standardised rates were not obtained for consultants within a specialty in one district. CONCLUSIONS--Readmission rates may be measured with Körner data. The pattern of readmissions with time means that readmission rates should be measured at not more than 28 days after the index discharge; the rates require standardisation for age and sex. Annual comparisons of standardised rates may be made among districts for combinations of specialties; those among individual consultants or specialties are unlikely to be statistically valid.

Accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA for detection of Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To measure test accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes using cell-free fetal DNA and identify factors affecting accuracy. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies. Data sources PubMed, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase and the Cochrane Library published from 1997 to 9 February 2015, followed by weekly autoalerts until 1 April 2015. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies English language journal articles describing case–control studies with ≥15 trisomy cases or cohort studies with ≥50 pregnant women who had been given NIPT and a reference standard. Results 41, 37 and 30 studies of 2012 publications retrieved were included in the review for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes. Quality appraisal identified high risk of bias in included studies, funnel plots showed evidence of publication bias. Pooled sensitivity was 99.3% (95% CI 98.9% to 99.6%) for Down, 97.4% (95.8% to 98.4%) for Edwards, and 97.4% (86.1% to 99.6%) for Patau syndrome. The pooled specificity was 99.9% (99.9% to 100%) for all three trisomies. In 100 000 pregnancies in the general obstetric population we would expect 417, 89 and 40 cases of Downs, Edwards and Patau syndromes to be detected by NIPT, with 94, 154 and 42 false positive results. Sensitivity was lower in twin than singleton pregnancies, reduced by 9% for Down, 28% for Edwards and 22% for Patau syndrome. Pooled sensitivity was also lower in the first trimester of pregnancy, in studies in the general obstetric population, and in cohort studies with consecutive enrolment. Conclusions NIPT using cell-free fetal DNA has very high sensitivity and specificity for Down syndrome, with slightly lower sensitivity for Edwards and Patau syndrome. However, it is not 100% accurate and should not be used as a final diagnosis for positive cases. Trial registration number CRD42014014947.