Aili Malm

Networks of Collaborating Criminals: Assessing the Structural Vulnerability of Drug Markets:

Uncovering the resiliency of ties between individuals involved in criminal enterprise will contribute to our understanding of how illicit markets function. To examine activities along the entire drug market commodity chain, this study extracted information about individuals involved or associated with trafficking (1,998 people) from police intelligence reports generated from 2004 to 2006. Significant differences were found for centrality and cohesion across market niches. Results show that the highest fragmentation potential lies with individuals who are involved with smuggling, supply, and financing, particularly when these individuals are also involved in other niches. Variability in small-world and scale-free properties suggest that interdiction strategies must be tailored to niche characteristics.

Co-offending between criminal enterprise groups

Rather than examining networks of individuals as prior research has done, this study systematically examines the structure and composition of co-offending among types of criminal enterprise groups. Using social network analysis, the authors show that different types of crime groups tend to have unique co-offending patterns as measured by network composition and structure. The results also support the countercurrent of criminologists who suggest that ethnically derived categories may be misleading when trying to classify criminal enterprise groups.

Lessons from conducting trans-national Internet-mediated participatory research with hidden populations of cannabis cultivators.

BACKGROUND Internet-mediated research methods are increasingly used to access hidden populations. The International Cannabis Cultivation Questionnaire (ICCQ) is an online survey designed to facilitate international comparisons into the relatively under-researched but increasingly significant phenomenon of domestic cannabis cultivation. The Global Cannabis Cultivation Research Consortium has used the ICCQ to survey over 6000 cannabis cultivators across 11 countries. In this paper, we describe and reflect upon our methodological approach, focusing on the digital and traditional recruitment methods used to access this hidden population and the challenges of working across multiple countries, cultures and languages. METHODS Descriptive statistics showing eligibility and completion rates and recruitment source by country of residence. RESULTS Over three quarters of eligible respondents who were presented with the survey were included in the final sample of n=6528. English-speaking countries expended more effort to recruit participants than non-English-speaking countries. The most effective recruitment modes were cannabis websites/groups (33%), Facebook (14%) and news articles (11%). While respondents recruited through news articles were older, growing practice variables were strikingly similar between these main recruitment modes. CONCLUSION Through this process, we learnt that there are trade-offs between hosting multiple surveys in each country vs. using one integrated database. We also found that although perceived anonymity is routinely assumed to be a benefit of using digital research methodologies, there are significant limits to research participant anonymity in the current era of mass digital surveillance, especially when the target group is particularly concerned about evading law enforcement. Finally, we list a number of specific recommendations for future researchers utilising Internet-mediated approaches to researching hidden populations.

Investing in people: The role of social networks in the diffusion of a large-scale fraud

Abstract This paper draws from social network analysis and diffusion theory to study the case of a mortgage fraud that spread undetected for five years in British Columbia, Canada. The fraud is studied from the point of view of 559 victims who unknowingly invested in the Ponzi scheme which defrauded 2285 investors for a total of

Production, perceptions, and punishment: Restrictive deterrence in the context of cannabis cultivation

240 million dollars. Results show diffusion played a role in the success of the Eron fraud even though the fraud ended before it reached the final stages of a classic diffusion process. A closer look at the social structure of the Eron network revealed the elements that made the fraud successful: (1) change agents, particularly Eron principals and Eron employees invested their personal time and effort recruiting investors; (2) independent brokers actively spread the fraud to their clients; and (3) opinion leaders, investors themselves, unknowingly spread the fraud through their social networks by recruiting their friends and family to invest in Eron.

Magnetic Facilities: Identifying the Convergence Settings of Juvenile Delinquents

BACKGROUND American authorities have invested extraordinary resources to keep up with the growth in cannabis cultivation, and state-level cannabis laws have been changing rapidly. Despite these changes, little research on the relationship between criminal justice sanctions and grower behaviours exist, in particular research that examines restrictive deterrence - the altering of an illegal behaviour as opposed to desisting from it completely. METHODS We examine restrictive deterrence in the context of cannabis cultivation by modelling the relationship between the threat of sanctions and the size of cultivation site and number of co-offenders. We use data from an anonymous web survey where participants were recruited through advertisements on websites related to cannabis use and cultivation. Negative binomial regression were used on 337 cases that contain valid data on size of cultivation site and 338 cases that contain valid data on the number of co-offenders. RESULTS Our study found some evidence that the severity of state sanctions reduces the size of cultivation sites among growers who reside in the state. However, the number of contacts with the police had the opposite effect. In addition, we did not find a restrictive deterrent effect for the number of co-offenders, suggesting that different factors affect different decision points. Interestingly, objective skill and subjective skill had positive and independent effects on size of site. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest that state-level sanctions have a structuring effect by restricting the size of cultivation sites but further increases in sanctions or enforcement are unlikely to deter more individuals from growing cannabis. In fact, there may be some potential dangers of increased enforcement on cannabis growers.

Small arms, big guns: a dynamic model of illicit market opportunity

Facilities that draw youth from different communities are prone to become offender convergence settings and intercity crime generators. Applying network analysis to self-nominated hangouts of 5,082 delinquent youth residing in Southern California revealed specific facilities acting as regional convergence settings. A small number of magnetic locations (measured by popularity and breadth of appeal) enable the congregation and interaction of youth that would otherwise not be exposed to each other. As predicted, the sociocirculatory structure of place networks remains relatively constant over time. In-degree and betweenness centrality statistics offer a viable analytic strategy to identify facilities operating as stable regional convergence locations. Crime prevention programs invoking effective place management through ordinances may offer a way to publicly govern these private facilities.

Social Opportunity Structures and the Escalation of Drug Market Offending

Transnational illicit markets are deeply embedded within legal trade systems and thus should be affected by shifting market conditions. Applying a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM), this study tests whether variation in illicit market opportunity could account for changing relations within the small arms trade (2003–2008). Measures of market accessibility – changes in export activity, reporting transparency and the percent of the labour force that is armed – outperformed measures of weapon availability with the exception of involvement in armed conflict. Significant structural change in outdegree density and transitivity suggest the development of trade factions, and decreasing balance hints that leaders are emerging. With the pending de-escalation of US-led conflict in the Middle East, a flood of second-hand weaponry is about to enter the market. Continued research is required to further uncover how the legitimate trade infrastructure facilitates the illicit flow of goods.

Bad actors and faulty props: unlocking legal and illicit art trade

Objectives: This study looks at whether social opportunity structures are associated with transitions into more serious drug market offending. Our focus is on the speed at which transitions occurred, and whether variations in criminal embeddedness play a role in explaining this. Methods: A survey of 520 North American cannabis cultivators allowed us to assess one dimension of the criminal career—escalation—looking at the speed of transitions from cannabis user to grower. Our main predictor, criminal embeddedness, was measured through the presence of a cultivation mentor involved in cannabis cultivation. Results: Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated late cannabis use onset and an indicator of the number of drugs used beyond cannabis were found to accelerate transitions. In addition, within-person changes in mentorship were found to influence the timing of escalation, with meeting a mentor associated with quicker transitions into cannabis cultivation. Conclusions: Findings emphasize the role of mentors as gateways into new milieus. Results support increased attention to the immediate social networks and broader social opportunity structures in which offenders and would-be offenders are embedded as major factors driving the timing of onset into more serious criminal pathways.

More structural holes, more risk? Network structure and risk perception among marijuana growers

If as suspected, criminal enterprise feeds off legal trade, then anti-crime policy must target the points at which legal and illicit markets intersect. This study offers a strategy to pinpoint and calibrate the degree of fusion across an entire trade system. Legal and illicit processes and mechanisms essential to all sectors of an industry – development, financing, handling, possession and regulation – were dissected using a script methodology. Eigenvector centrality scores identified interlocking tools and actors. The results highlight the role played by supporting industries (e.g. insurers, auction houses, storage specialists, foundations and high net-worth buyers) and the need to target temporary markets, shipping activity and financial transactions with regulatory policing efforts. Vaccinating global economies from illicit activity is best achieved through a soft law approach aimed at identifiable mechanisms (faulty props) used by groups playing pivotal trade roles (bad actors).