Ajay Mahal

Structural approaches to HIV prevention

Recognition that social, economic, political, and environmental factors directly affect HIV risk and vulnerability has stimulated interest in structural approaches to HIV prevention. Progress in the use of structural approaches has been limited for several reasons: absence of a clear definition; lack of operational guidance; and limited data on the effectiveness of structural approaches to the reduction of HIV incidence. In this paper we build on evidence and experience to address these gaps. We begin by defining structural factors and approaches. We describe the available evidence on their effectiveness and discuss methodological challenges to the assessment of these often complex efforts to reduce HIV risk and vulnerability. We identify core principles for implementing this kind of work. We also provide recommendations for ensuring the integration of structural approaches as part of combined prevention strategies.

Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth

Abstract This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across 51 developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well-established empirical growth equations to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that might also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality.

Scaling up nutrition : what will it cost?

Undernutrition imposes a staggering cost worldwide, both in human and economic terms. It is responsible for the deaths of more than 3.5 million children each year (more than one-third of all deaths among children under five) and the loss of billions of dollars in forgone productivity and avoidable health care spending. Individuals lose more than 10 percent of lifetime earnings, and many countries lose at least 2-3 percent of their gross domestic product to undernutrition. The current economic crisis and its potential impact on the poor make investing in child nutrition more urgent than ever to protect and strengthen human capital in the most vulnerable developing countries. This report offers suggestions on how to raise these resources. It is an investment we must make. It will yield high returns in the form of thriving children, healthier families, and more productive workers. This investment is essential to make progress on the nutrition and child mortality Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to protect critical human capital in developing economies. The human and financial costs of further neglect will be high. This call for greater investment in nutrition comes at a time when global efforts to strengthen health systems provide a unique opportunity to scale up integrated packages of health and nutrition interventions, with common delivery platforms, and lower costs. The report has benefited from the expertise of many international agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and research institutions. The cooperation of so many practitioners is evidence of a growing recognition of the need to invest in nutrition interventions, and a growing consensus about how to deliver effective programs.

The Health Care Systems Of China And India: Performance And Future Challenges

Both China and India have recently committed to injecting new public funds into health care. Both countries are now deciding how best to channel the additional funds to produce benefits for their populations. In this paper we analyze how well the health care systems of China and India have performed and what determines their performance. Based on the analysis, we suggest that money alone, channeled through insurance and infrastructure strengthening, is inadequate to address the current problems of unaffordable health care and heavy financial risk, and the future challenges posed by aging populations that are increasingly affected by noncommunicable diseases.

Does the Aids Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth

This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across fifty-one developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well- established empirical growth models to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that might also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality. We also find evidence that the insignificant effect of AIDS on income per capita is qualitatively similar to an insignificant effect on wages of the Black Death in England and France during the Middle Ages and an insignificant effect on output per capita of influenza in India during 1918-19.

The Economic impact of Non-communicable Diseases on households in India

BackgroundIn India, Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs) and injuries account for an estimated 62% of the total age-standardized burden of forgone Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Public and private financing of clinical services to reduce the NCD burden is a major challenge.MethodsWe used National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) survey data from 1995-96 and 2004 covering nearly 200 thousand households to assess healthcare utilization patterns and out of pocket health spending by disease category. For this purpose, self-reported diseases and conditions were categorized into NCDs and non-NCDs. Survey data were used to assess how households financed their overall health expenditures and related this pattern to specific health conditions. We measured catastrophic spending on NCD-related hospitalization, defined as occurring when health expenditures exceeded 40% of a households ability to pay, that is, household consumption spending less combined survival consumption expenditure; and impoverishment when per capita expenditure within the household decreased to below the poverty line once health spending was netted out.ResultsThe share of NCDs in out of pocket health expenses incurred by households increased over time, from 31.6 percent in 1995-96 to 47.3 percent in 2004. In both years, own savings and income were the most important source of financing for many health conditions, typically between 40-60 percent of all spending, whereas 30-35 percent was from borrowing. The odds of catastrophic hospitalization expenditures for cancer was nearly 170% greater and for CVD and injuries 22 percent greater than the odds due to communicable diseases. Impoverishment patterns were similar.ConclusionsOut of pocket expenses for treating NCDs rose sharply over the period from 1995-96 to 2004. When NCDs are present, the financial risks to which Indians households are exposed are significant.

Economic impacts of health shocks on households in low and middle income countries: a review of the literature

Poor health is a source of impoverishment among households in low -and middle- income countries (LMICs) and a subject of voluminous literature in recent years. This paper reviews recent empirical literature on measuring the economic impacts of health shocks on households. Key inclusion criteria were studies that explored household level economic outcomes (burden of out-of-pocket (OOP) health spending, labour supply responses and non-medical consumption) of health shocks and sought to correct for the likely endogeneity of health shocks, in addition to studies that measured catastrophic and impoverishment effects of ill health. The review only considered literature in the English language and excluded studies published before 2000 since these have been included in previous reviews. We identified 105 relevant articles, reports, and books. Our review confirmed the major conclusion of earlier reviews based on the pre-2000 literature - that households in LMICs bear a high but variable burden of OOP health expenditure. Households use a range of sources such as income, savings, borrowing, using loans or mortgages, and selling assets and livestock to meet OOP health spending. Health shocks also cause significant reductions in labour supply among households in LMICs, and households (particularly low-income ones) are unable to fully smooth income losses from moderate and severe health shocks. Available evidence rejects the hypothesis of full consumption insurance in the face of major health shocks. Our review suggests additional research on measuring and harmonizing indicators of health shocks and economic outcomes, measuring economic implications of non-communicable diseases for households and analyses based on longitudinal data. Policymakers need to include non-health system interventions, including access to credit and disability insurance in addition to support formal insurance programs to ameliorate the economic impacts of health shocks.

High-end physician migration from India

OBJECTIVE To examine the relation between the quality of physicians and migration among alumni of All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India over the period 1989-2000. METHODS In a retrospective cohort study, data on graduates of AIIMS were collected from entrance exam qualifier lists, the AIIMS alumni directory, convocation records, the American Medical Association and informal alumni networks. The data were analysed by use of 2x2 contingency tables and logistic regression models. FINDINGS Nearly 54% of AIIMS graduates during 1989-2000 now reside outside India. Students admitted under the general category are twice as likely to reside abroad (95% confidence interval: 1.53-2.99) as students admitted under the affirmative-action category. Recipients of multiple academic awards were 35% more likely to emigrate than non-recipients of awards (95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.76). Multivariate analyses do not change these basic conclusions. CONCLUSION Graduates from higher quality institutions account for a disproportionately large share of emigrating physicians. Even within high-end institutions, such as AIIMS, better physicians are more likely to emigrate. Interventions should focus on the highly trained individuals in the top institutions that contribute disproportionately to the loss of human resources for health. Our findings suggest that affirmative-action programmes may have an unintended benefit in that they may help retain a subset of such personnel.

Home-based rehabilitation for COPD using minimal resources: a randomised, controlled equivalence trial

Background Pulmonary rehabilitation is a cornerstone of care for COPD but uptake of traditional centre-based programmes is poor. We assessed whether home-based pulmonary rehabilitation, delivered using minimal resources, had equivalent outcomes to centre-based pulmonary rehabilitation. Methods A randomised controlled equivalence trial with 12 months follow-up. Participants with stable COPD were randomly assigned to receive 8 weeks of pulmonary rehabilitation by either the standard outpatient centre-based model, or a new home-based model including one home visit and seven once-weekly telephone calls from a physiotherapist. The primary outcome was change in 6 min walk distance (6MWD). Results We enrolled 166 participants to receive centre-based rehabilitation (n=86) or home-based rehabilitation (n=80). Intention-to-treat analysis confirmed non-inferiority of home-based rehabilitation for 6MWD at end-rehabilitation and the confidence interval (CI) did not rule out superiority (mean difference favouring home group 18.6 m, 95% CI −3.3 to 40.7). At 12 months the CI did not exclude inferiority (−5.1 m, −29.2 to 18.9). Between-group differences for dyspnoea-related quality of life did not rule out superiority of home-based rehabilitation at programme completion (1.6 points, −0.3 to 3.5) and groups were equivalent at 12 months (0.05 points, −2.0 to 2.1). The per-protocol analysis showed the same pattern of findings. Neither group maintained postrehabilitation gains at 12 months. Conclusions This home-based pulmonary rehabilitation model, delivered with minimal resources, produced short-term clinical outcomes that were equivalent to centre-based pulmonary rehabilitation. Neither model was effective in maintaining gains at 12 months. Home-based pulmonary rehabilitation could be considered for people with COPD who cannot access centre-based pulmonary rehabilitation. Trial registration number NCT01423227, clinicaltrials.gov.

State Health Insurance and Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures in Andhra Pradesh, India

In 2007 the state of Andhra Pradesh in southern India began rolling out Aarogyasri health insurance to reduce catastrophic health expenditures in households ‘below the poverty line’. We exploit variation in program roll-out over time and districts to evaluate the impacts of the scheme using difference-in-differences. Our results suggest that within the first nine months of implementation Phase I of Aarogyasri significantly reduced out-of-pocket inpatient expenditures and, to a lesser extent, outpatient expenditures. These results are robust to checks using quantile regression and matching methods. No clear effects on catastrophic health expenditures or medical impoverishment are seen. Aarogyasri is not benefiting scheduled caste and scheduled tribe households as much as the rest of the population.