Akhter U. Ahmed

Weighing what's practical: proxy means tests for targeting food subsidies in Egypt

Abstract Despite achieving a significant cost reduction over the past two decades, the absolute cost of food subsidies in Egypt is still high relative to the benefits received by the poor. There is scope for better targeting these food subsidies, in particular for targeting cooking oil and sugar ration cards, both because reforms in this area are perceived to be far less politically sensitive than adjusting subsidy policy for bread and wheat flour and because higher income groups presently receive a significant percentage of the benefits. Targeting the high-subsidy green ration cards to the poor and the low-subsidy red ration cards to the nonpoor will require identification of both poor and nonpoor households. An International Food Policy Research Institute research team in Egypt, in collaboration with the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Supply, developed a proxy means test for targeting ration cards. The paper describes the process of moving from the optimal income-predicting model to the final model that was both administratively and politically feasible. An ex-ante evaluation of the levels of accuracy of the proxy means testing model indicates that the model performs quite well in predicting the needy and nonneedy households. An effective and full implementation of this targeting method would increase the equity in the ration card food subsidy system, and, at the same time, the total budgetary costs of rationed food subsidies would decline. Moreover, the experience gained under this reform would facilitate targeting future social interventions to reduce and prevent poverty in Egypt.

Chronic and Transitory Poverty: Evidence from Egypt, 1997–99

Abstract This paper uses a panel data of 347 households in Egypt to measure changes in household consumption during 1997–99 and to identify causes behind the changes. Per capita consumption has decreased for the households during this time. The decrease has not been dramatic, but it has occurred at all points along the distribution. Over the two-year period, the number of households who have fallen into poverty is over twice as large as the number of households who have climbed out of poverty. About two-thirds of overall poverty is chronic (average consumption over time is below the poverty line), and almost half of all poor are always poor. We use quantile regression methods to identify the factors that explain total, chronic, and transitory poverty. While our analysis is able to document the extent of transitory poverty, it performs relatively poorly in explaining the determinants of this type of poverty. The predominantly chronic nature of poverty in our sample, and our ability to identify associated characteristics, strengthens the case for targeting antipoverty interventions, such as food subsidies.

Yellow River basin: living with scarcity

The Yellow River basin is a key food production centre of global importance facing rapidly growing water scarcity. Water availability for agriculture in the basin is threatened by rapid growth in the demand for industrial and urban water, the need to flush sediment from the rivers lower reaches, environmental demands and growing water pollution. Climate change is already evident in the basin with long-term declines in river runoff, higher temperatures, and increasing frequency and intensity of drought. The Chinese government has exhausted most options for improving water supply. The challenge will be to switch to improved water demand management, which is hampered by existing governance structures, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies.

Incorporating crime in household surveys: a research note

This paper discusses how to incorporate questions about crime into household surveys, drawing on the authors’ experience of designing and implementing a module on crime, violence and physical insecurity in a household survey in the city of Dinajpur in Bangladesh in 2002. The paper discusses issues of design, such as determining survey objectives and the questions that follow from these, involving knowledgeable local partners, determining sample size and designing the questionnaire (and the role of consultations and focus group discussions as well as pre-testing). Then it reports on the findings which highlight the multifaceted nature of crime, the number of people affected (one in six interviewees had been a victim of crime in the 12 months preceding the interview), the role of mastaans (local strong-men) in crime, people’s lack of confidence in the police and the legal system (in part because of the lack of official action against perpetrators), and crime’s direct and indirect costs.

The Poorest: Who and Where They Are?

This chapter provides a global quantitative perspective on where the world’s poor and particularly the poorest live, and the extent of progress made in the reduction of income poverty close to and far below the international poverty line (US

Understanding the context of institutions and policy processes for selected anti-poverty interventions in Bangladesh

1.25/day per capita) over the past two decades. The characteristics of the ultra-poor are identified based on a quantitative assessment across developing countries. Poverty reduction from 1990 to 2008 was quite equal between those who are somewhat below that poverty line and the ultra-poor—in fact it slightly favored the ultra-poor. This suggests that the theory of enduring poverty traps may not be holding true for those in ultra-poverty in recent years, as this pattern is different compared to earlier global findings. For interventions to reach the ultra-poor (i.e., those living on less than US

Nutrition behaviour change communication causes sustained effects on IYCN knowledge in two cluster-randomised trials in Bangladesh

0.63/day) effectively, geographically marginal households should be targeted; and the low-levels of education, and in the case of Asia, landlessness should be taken into account.

Behavior change communication activities improve infant and young child nutrition knowledge and practice of neighboring non-participants in a cluster-randomized trial in rural Bangladesh

This paper reviews the background and history of agricultural technology interventions and the policy processes underlying food-based and cash-based education incentive programmes in Bangladesh, their targeting mechanisms and performance, and their evolution over time. The study reviews similarities and differences among these anti-poverty interventions according to their pro-poor orientation, attention to gender issues, extent of involvement of other partners, attention to sustainability, and the use of research and evaluation to inform organisational change.

Do Crowded Classrooms Crowd out Learning? Evidence from the Food for Education Program in Bangladesh International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Discussion Paper 149 (May 2003)

Abstract Behaviour change communication (BCC) can improve infant and young child nutrition (IYCN) knowledge, practices, and health outcomes. However, few studies have examined whether the improved knowledge persists after BCC activities end. This paper assesses the effect of nutrition sensitive social protection interventions on IYCN knowledge in rural Bangladesh, both during and after intervention activities. We use data from two, 2‐year, cluster randomised control trials that included nutrition BCC in some treatment arms. These data were collected at intervention baseline, midline, and endline, and 6–10 months after the intervention ended. We analyse data on IYCN knowledge from the same 2,341 women over these 4 survey rounds. We construct a number correct score on 18 IYCN knowledge questions and assess whether the impact of the BCC changes over time for the different treatment groups. Effects are estimated using ordinary least squares accounting for the clustered design of the study. There are 3 main findings: First, the BCC improves IYCN knowledge substantially in the 1st year of the intervention; participants correctly answer 3.0–3.2 more questions (36% more) compared to the non‐BCC groups. Second, the increase in knowledge between the 1st and 2nd year was smaller, an additional 0.7–0.9 correct answers. Third, knowledge persists; there are no significant decreases in IYCN knowledge 6–10 months after nutrition BCC activities ended.

Group-based financial institutions for the rural poor in Bangladesh: an institutional- and household-level analysis.

Objective To examine the impact on infant and young child nutrition knowledge and practice of mothers who were neighbors of mothers participating in a nutrition Behavior Change Communication (BCC) intervention in rural Bangladesh. Methods We analyzed data from 300 mothers whose neighbor participated in a nutrition BCC intervention and 600 mothers whose neighbor participated in an intervention that did not include BCC. We constructed measures capturing mothers’ knowledge of infant and young child nutrition (IYCN) and measures of food consumption by children 6-24m. The effect on these outcomes of exposure to a neighbor receiving a nutrition BCC intervention was estimated using ordinary least squares and probit regressions. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Study ID: NCT02237144). Results Having a neighboring mother participate in a nutrition BCC intervention increased non-participant mothers’ IYCN knowledge by 0.17 SD (translating to 0.3 more correct answers). They were 14.1 percentage points more likely to feed their 6-24m children legumes and nuts; 11.6 percentage points more likely to feed these children vitamin A rich fruits and vegetables; and 10.0 percentage points more likely to feed these children eggs. Children of non-participant mothers who had a neighboring mother participate in a nutrition BCC intervention were 13.8 percentage points more likely to meet World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for minimum diet diversity, 11.9 percentage points more likely to meet WHO guidelines for minimum acceptable diet, and 10.3 percentage points more likely to meet WHO guidelines for minimum meal frequency for children who continue to be breastfed after age 6m. Children aged 0-6m of non-participant mothers who are neighbors of mothers receiving BCC were 7.1 percentage points less likely to have ever consumed water-based liquids. Conclusions Studies of nutrition BCC that do not account for information spillovers to non-participants may underestimate its benefits in terms of IYCN knowledge and practice.