Akira Monden

Hypergame analysis introducing certainty factor

The paper presents two methods of hypergame analysis to model and analyze such conflicts where players have plural perceptions about conflict situations. A certainty factor is first defined to evaluate the assurance degree for expected game. The certainty factor is fundamental and is used to combine plural perceptions in hypergame. The relation between games is then investigated to handle the structural difference between expected games. Based on the perceived equilibria and perceived strategies, two methods are then proposed for hypergame analysis under plural perceptions. The present approach determines a different set of equilibria, depending on the certainty factor and the threshold.