Akiya Inoue

Service demand analysis using multiattribute learning mechanisms

We describe a new approach to analyze customer demand for various types of Internet services and IT systems. We have proposed a multi-attribute learning mechanism called LMDCM (Learning Mechanism using Discrete Choice Models) to evaluate customer satisfaction levels for services. A multiattribute learning mechanism can indicate the customer satisfaction level of each service under given situations. We give an overview of customer-behavior modeling using LMDCM and the framework to analyze customer-churning and service demand. This framework can be used to simulate scenarios under assumed situations. It consists of customer-behavior modeling, service modeling, environment modeling, and scenario simulation functions. Service demand analysis for providers of various services (xSPs) is shown as an application example.

Service-demand-forecasting method using multiple data sources

A service-demand-forecasting method that uses multiple data sources for improved accuracy is presented in this paper. We presented a advanced scenario simulation framework to analyze each customer service choice behavior and total service demand under an assumed condition. To estimate the demand on service, especially for a new service, scenario simulation is executed based on stated preference data (SP). However, there is usually a considerable gap between an estimate based on SP and the actual outcome. Furthermore, the distribution of attributes of users collected in market surveys is not equal to that of actual market users, and there is a bias between collected data and attributes of users in the market. In this paper, we propose an adjusting method that can re-estimate demands by analyzing the difference between actual and estimated results. We consider the problem of choosing an Internet access line service to evaluate the method. An application example shows that distribution differences between areas with respect to customer attributes strongly affect actual market shares

Service-choice behaviour modelling with latent perceptual variables

This paper presents a new service-choice behaviour model for various types of telecommunications and internet services. We have proposed a framework for analysing service demand, which can be used to simulate scenarios under various assumed conditions. Service-choice behaviour modelling results in a service demand and is a key factor in this framework. Service-choice behaviour models are constructed to give choice probabilities under given conditions, selectable services, and service specifications, for example. In this paper, we focus on the influence of the lack of knowledge and misunderstanding about services. We propose a service-choice modelling with latent perceptual variables. The model for telecommunications services is shown as an application example. We classify latent perceptual variables into three types: functionality, user friendliness, and charge. This paper gives a method to construct a model with latent perceptual variables and its estimation results. It shows that the proposed method improves the goodness of the model.

Mobile Carrier Choice Modeling under Competitive Conditions

This paper presents a mobile-carrier choice modeling to analyze customer preference and understand customer choice behavior in the mobile phone market. Due to severe competitive conditions, there are a few differences among mobile phone services provided by mobile-carriers. We propose a new mobile-carrier choice modeling considering incentive factors and restrictive factors as decision-making factors. Web survey is carried out to obtain the sample data for this model. We show the model estimated by using the survey data to analyze mobile-carrier choice behavior.

Mobile-carrier Choice Modeling Framework Under Competitive Conditions

This paper presents a mobile-carrier choice modeling framework to analyze customer preference and understand customer choice behavior in the mobile phone market. Due to severe competitive conditions, there are few differences between the mobile phone services provided by mobile-carriers. We propose a new mobile-carrier choice modeling that takes into account incentive factors and restrictive factors as decision-making factors. A Web survey was carried out to obtain the sample data for this model. We show the model estimated from the survey data to analyze mobile-carrier choice behavior.

Customer Segmentation in Mobile Carrier Choice Modeling

Service choice behavior of customers is becoming complicated and diversified in the mobile phone market. The aim of this paper is to analyze mobile carrier choice behavior and clarify the customer segments and their decision-making factors. We classify mobile phone customers into two groups: churning customers and stable customers. Customer segmentation is carried out based on survey data for each customer group in order to clarify the decision-making factors. We propose a new service choice modeling with regard to mobile carriers based on the customer segmentation results.

Mobile Internet-Access Behavior Analysis

The rapid growth of the mobile Internet market has caused various changes in the mobile business. The purpose of this study is to construct mobile-user behavior models which are effective to plan business strategies in the mobile Internet market. We analyzed mobile Internet-access behavior based on the original survey data collected from mobile Internet users. This paper showed the results in the following points: mobile-Internet usages patterns, purchase behavior in the Mobile-Commerce market, etc. We clarified the basic characteristics of mobile Internet users.

Demand Analysis by Modeling Choice of Internet Access and IP Telephony

In Japan, demands for broadband Internet access and IP telephony have increased dramatically in recent years. According to official sources, as of September 2009, there are 30.9 million users of broadband Internet access and 20.9 million of IP telephony. This study evaluates and estimates the market share of fiber-optic Internet connection, which is becoming the major player in broadband services, paying specific attention to IP telephony. A comprehensive combined choice model of Internet access line, IP telephony, and awareness of IP telephony is presented. The most suitable parameters for the model were determined by using an original market research survey conducted in Japan during 2004 with stated-preference choice experiments of both Internet access and IP telephony. The results indicate that increasing awareness has the potential to dramatically increase the penetration of IP telephony. The results also indicate a great variability in price sensitivity across income groups for the choices of Internet access line and IP telephony. The fiber optic share is shown to change with a change in its own monthly usage charge, indicating that market share gains are possible through reduced usage fees.

Mobile-Carrier Choice Behavior Analysis Around Smart Phone Market

The rapid growth of the smart phone market has caused various changes in customer preference and carrier choice behavior in the mobile phone market. We analyzed the characteristics and the change in relation to the usage patterns of mobile phones and mobile-carrier choice behavior. This paper presents the results based on the two sets of the original survey data collected from customers of major three mobile-carriers: docomo, au and Soft Bank. We show the estimation results of a new mobile-carrier choice model considering new factors.

Econometric approach for broadband market in Japan

We investigated the growth in the Japanese broadband market. We analyzed price elasticity and changes in the broadband market in 2009 by comparing those of the market in 2005, which we consider the growth stage of Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) service in terms of econometrics. Through analysis, we found that users feel FTTH service fees are reasonable and that the service is used among high- and low-income households. We also believe that FTTH service is no longer for users who use the Internet for heavy downloading activities, such as P2P file sharing. Furthermore, FTTH fees have becomes less elastic than in 2005.