Akiyuki Kawasaki

The growing role of web-based geospatial technology in disaster response and support

This paper examines changes in disaster response and relief efforts and recent web-based geospatial technological developments through an evaluation of the experiences of the Center for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University, of the Sichuan (2008) and Haiti (2010) earthquake responses. This paper outlines how conventional GIS (geographic information systems) disaster responses by governmental agencies and relief response organisations and the means for geospatial data-sharing have been transformed into a more dynamic, more transparent, and decentralised form with a wide participation. It begins by reviewing briefly at historical changes in the employment of geospatial technologies in major devastating disasters, including the Sichuan and Haiti earthquakes (case studies for our geospatial portal project). It goes on to assess changes in the available dataset type and in geospatial disaster responders, as well as the impact of geospatial technological changes on disaster relief effort. Finally, the paper discusses lessons learned from recent responses and offers some thoughts for future development.

Development of a land-use forecast tool for future water resources assessment : case study for the Mekong River 3S Sub-basins

Land-use change is one of the major factors that alter local and regional hydrology. For areas experiencing fast expansion of urban and agriculture areas, land-use changes often adversely affect stream flow and water resources at the local and watershed scale. The Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok (3S) Sub-basins are a part of the Lower Mekong River Basin and include land in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos), and Viet Nam. The region is experiencing a dynamic land-use transition because of rapid changes in its economy, society, and environment. Major land-use changes include deforestation of native rain forest, expansion of agricultural and urban areas, and expansion of commercial plantation such as rubber trees. These land-use alterations have affected local and regional hydrologic processes, resulting in stream flow shortages during the dry season and flash flooding due to deforestation. In this research, deforestation in the 3S Sub-basins over the period 1993–1997 was analyzed using multi-logistic regression. The regression analysis indicated that density of agricultural cells within a 5-km radius from each forest cell and slope strongly affected the deforestation process. A land-use forecast model to simulate deforestation and urbanization sites was developed in GIS based on local land-use change trends. The model was applied to 2003 land use to forecast 2033 land use and future water demand, which was further compared with present stream flow measurements during the dry season at various places in the region. The entire approach from the land-use forecast to its impact assessment on stream flow could help local stakeholders understand watershed-wide future water resources risks and develop future water resources plans. With the 3S Sub-basins being used as a case study area, this article presents a land-use forecast tool; simulated 2033 land-use and water demand; and the estimation of the impact of the forecasted future water demand on the local stream flow.

Evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use change on the hydrology and nutrient yield in a transboundary river basin: A case study in the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok)

Assessment of the climate and land-use change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of a river basin is important for the development and management of water resources in the future. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological regime and nutrient yield from the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Srepok, and Sesan) into the 3S River system in Southeast Asia. The 3S Rivers are important tributaries of the Lower Mekong River, accounting for 16% of its annual flow. This transboundary basin supports the livelihoods of nearly 3.5 million people in the countries of Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. To reach a better understanding of the process and fate of pollution (nutrient yield) as well as the hydrological regime, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water quality and discharge in the 3S River Basin. Future scenarios were developed for three future periods: 2030s (2015-2039), 2060s (2045-2069), and 2090s (2075-2099), using an ensemble of five GCMs (General Circulation Model) simulations: (HadGEM2-AO, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR), driven by the climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways): RCP4.5 (medium emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios, and two land-use change scenarios. The results indicated that the climate in the study area would generally become warmer and wetter under both emission scenarios. Discharge and nutrient yield is predicted to increase in the wet season and decrease in the dry. Overall, the annual discharge and nutrient yield is projected to increase throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting sensitivity in the 3S River Basin to climate and land-use change. The results of this study can assist water resources managers and planners in developing water management strategies for uncertain climate change scenarios in the 3S River Basin.

Forecasting Climate Change Scenarios in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar

This study aims to forecast the climate change scenarios of Bago River Basin in Myanmar. A delta change method was used to correct the bias of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. The future projection period from 2010-2100 is classified into 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069), and 2080s (2070-2099) for analyzing meteorological parameters under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is observed that average annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise in the entire basin under both scenarios — most significantly in the 2080s. Average summer temperature is projected to decrease by approximately 0.25°C in the first century period under both RCPs. However winter season witnessed an increase in average temperature of 1.5-2.5°C, following by the rainy season with increase of average temperature of 0.9-2.6°C in future. Average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the greatest upturn in the 2050s. Winter season is projected to receive more precipitation for both scenarios with an average increase of approximately 200 mm, whereas summer season shows the least rainfall change (25 mm) under both future scenarios. The highest mean monthly precipitation occurs in September during the 2020s (933 mm) and in July during the 2080s (868 mm) respectively. The average annual precipitation is projected to be at maximum in the 2020s (4085 mm, 40% increase) for RCP4.5 and in the 2050s (4263 mm, 43% increase) under RCP8.5.

The impact of income disparity on vulnerability and information collection: an analysis of the 2011 Thai Flood

The impact of income disparity on vulnerability and information collection during the 2011 Thai Flood was examined through a survey investigation. Lower-income respondents were found to have been more likely to be inundated by the flood than higher-income respondents because of the location of their residences, and lower-income respondents whose residences flooded were also less likely to have evacuated. Television was widely used, regardless of income level, but lower-income respondents tended to also utilise lower-technology modes, such as radios and loudspeakers, in contrast to the Internet-based modes used by higher-income respondents. Lower-income respondents also tended to be less aware of the government hotline; however, those that were aware of it were more likely to find it useful. Overall, while income was a good predictor of peoples flood vulnerability, it was not the best predictor for media usage; other demographic characteristics, such as education level and age, should also be considered.

A Cooperative Game Analysis of Transboundary Hydropower Development in the Lower Mekong: Case of the 3S Sub-basins

Hydropower development has enormous economic, environmental, and social impacts at a local, national, and trans-national level. It has been suggested that transboundary water conflicts, such as those that may arise from hydropower development, may be addressed through benefit sharing. This study attempts to investigate the net benefits of hydropower development and water resources utilization in transboundary sub-basin, the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok (commonly known as 3S) sub-basin, in the Mekong River Basin using a game theory approach. This study proposes a methodology for analyzing complex transboundary river-basin issues using the game theory concepts, such as core stability and incentive compatibility. A wide range of parameters have been incorporated to define models and methodologies, and an adaptation strategy for the area has been proposed. The results suggests that benefit sharing and cooperation among the riparian countries would lead to benefits to all. It is observed that the greater the cooperation, the higher is the total benefits. External funding and optimal usage of funds will also play a critical role in this context in the near future. The results of the study will provide a basis for local policy decisions and regional planning in the Mekong River and beyond.

Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Using GIS and Logistic Regression Model A Case Study In Malang, Indonesia

Landslide susceptibility mapping is one of the most important counter measures in landslide risk reduction, as this paper will show. A method for determining landslide-prone areas by combining multivariate statistical analysis and GIS was demonstrated, with Malang, Indonesia, as the study area. Seven spatial parameters – elevation, slope, aspect, flow accumulation, land use/land cover, geology and soil – were used in the analysis. Three of these parameters were identified as being more likely to cause landslides. These particular parameters were used to produce a landslide susceptibility map, divided into five classes. Gain statistics were then applied to assess the accuracy of the model; 77% accuracy was the result. The output was overlaid with a land use/land cover dataset to investigate which areas were prone to landslides. The result showed that in the study area, forest and upland food crops are most vulnerable to landslide, followed by mixed tree crops and settlements.

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model

Climatic changes have altered hydrological and climatic parameters worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. In order to maintain the sustainable development and acquire the knowledge of water availability, climatic projection must be coupled with hydrological models. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models output were integrated with a calibrated hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on green and blue water over Upper Narmada river Basin (UNB). Therefore, top three representative climate models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) from 24 CMIP5 climate models were selected for hydrological modelling. Selected representative climate model outputs were bias corrected by distribution mapping to remove systematic bias correction. Multi-site model calibration approaches indicated Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) as 0.77 and 0.76 for calibration (1978–1995), and 0.73 and 0.70 for validation (1996–2005), respectively. Calibrated model was run for baseline period (1970–2000) and three futuristic period P1 (2011–2040), P2 (2041–2070) and P3 (2071–2100) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results indicated annual precipitation decreasing under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios changes in green and blue water varying from 16.22 to −14.10% (CNRM,P3) under RCP4.5 and from 38.25 to −22.57% under RCP8.5 with reference to baseline scenario. This study established the sensitivity of UNB to future climatic changes employing projections from CMIP5 climate models and exhibited an approach that applied multiple climate model outputs to estimate potential change over the river basin.

Media Preference, Information Needs, and the Language Proficiency of Foreigners in Japan after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the Japanese government identified the lack of proficiency in the Japanese language as one characteristic of foreigners that should be considered in disaster prevention planning. This article seeks to understand how proficiency in a local language affects disaster information gathering behavior by using the results of a questionnaire survey conducted after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Respondents were categorized based on their Japanese and English language abilities. Their media mode, language preferences, information importance, and information-gathering difficulties also were examined. It was found that foreigners skilled in Japanese demonstrated similar information gathering behavior as Japanese respondents, but foreigners unskilled in Japanese showed little usage of Japanese-language media. This group also encountered difficulties due to a lack of Japanese proficiency, but many members were able to acquire some level of Japanese-language information through Internet-based methods. To address language proficiency in disaster prevention planning, information provision in languages other than Japanese should be increased, and Japanese information should be shared in a way that facilitates translation. Although this survey was significant in its scope, the results should be considered within the limitations of the Internet-based response collection and focus only on the less-affected area of Japan.

A cooperative framework for optimizing transboundary hydropower development

ABSTRACT Hydropower development may result in water conflicts among the riparian nations, which, however, can be resolved by benefit sharing. An optimization framework is proposed for a transboundary sub-basin following a cooperative game theoretical approach. A broad range of factors at different levels of cooperation between the riparian countries has been used in the optimization model. As an illustration, the framework is implemented in the Sesan and Sre Pok sub-basins of the Lower Mekong Basin. Higher levels of cooperation lead to greater total net benefits as well as greater benefits to individual countries.