Aktham I. Maghyereh

Oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries: new evidence from nonlinear cointegration analysis

Purpose - The purpose of this research is to examine the linkages between oil prices and stock market in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Prior work argues that oil prices and the GCC stock markets are not related. This conclusion could be due to the fact that only linear linkages have been examined. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs newly developed techniques of rank tests of nonlinear cointegration analysis proposed by Breitung and Gourieroux and Breitung. The Breitungs method is selected in this study due its potential superiority at detecting cointegration when the error-correction mechanism is nonlinear. Findings - The empirical analysis of the paper supports that oil price impact the stock price indices in GCC countries in a nonlinear fashion. Thus, the statistical analysis in this paper obviously supports a nonlinear modeling of the relationship between oil and the economy. Research limitations/implications - The paper contains the normal limitations associated with the econometric method including statistical bias. Practical implications - The implication of this paper findings is that policy makers at GCC countries should keep an eye on the effects of changes in oil price levels on their own economies and stock markets. For individual and institutional investors, the nonlinear relationship between oil and stock markets imply predictability in the GCC stock markets. Originality/value - The paper presents new findings on the relationships between oil prices and the stock market in GCC countries. These findings should be of interest to researchers, regulators, and market participants.

The tail behavior of extreme stock returns in the Gulf emerging markets: An implication for financial risk management

Purpose - In this paper, the aim is to investigate the tail behavior of daily stock returns for three emerging stock in the Gulf region (Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia) over the period 1998-2005. In addition, the aim is also to test whether the distributions are similar across these markets. Design/methodology/approach - Following McNeil and Frey, Wanger and Marsh, and Bystrom, extreme value theory (EVT) methods are utilized to examine the asymptotic distribution of the tail for daily returns in the Gulf region. As a first step and to obtain independent and identically distributed residuals series, the returns are prefiltered with an ordinary time-series model, taking into account the observed Gulf return dynamics. Then, the “Peaks-Over-Threshold” (POT) model is applied to estimate the tails of the innovational distribution. Findings - Not only is the heavy tail found to be a facial appearance in these markets, but also POT method of modelling extreme tail quantiles is more accurate than conventional methodologies (historical simulation and normal distribution models) in estimating the tail behavior of the Gulf markets returns. Across all return series, it is found that left and right tails behave very different across countries. Research limitations/implications - The results show that risk models that are able to exploit tail behavior could lead to more accurate risk estimates. Thus, participants in the Gulf equity markets can rely on EVT-based risk model when assessing their risks. Originality/value - The paper extends previous studies in two aspects. First, it extends the classical unconditional extreme value approach by first filtering the data by using AR-FIAPARCH model to capture some of the dependencies in the stock returns, and thereafter applying ordinary extreme value techniques. Second, it provides a broad analysis of return dynamics of the Gulf markets.

Oil Price Uncertainty and Equity Returns: Evidence from Oil Importing and Exporting Countries in the MENA Region

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the impact of oil price uncertainty on the stock market returns of ten oil importing and exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. Design/methodology/approach - This paper intuitively applies the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean vector autoregression (VAR) model using weekly data over the period January 2001-February 2014. Findings - The findings indicate that oil uncertainty matters in the determination of real stock returns. There is a negative and significant relationship between oil price uncertainty and real stock returns in all countries in the sample. The influence of oil price risk is more serious in those economies that depend heavily on oil revenues to grow. Practical implications - The findings have important implications. For instance, managers should be aware of the linkages between oil price uncertainty and equity returns when they use oil to hedge and diversify equities, particularly in economies where oil is important for economic growth. The policymakers in oil importing countries should encourage companies to improve efficiency in the usage of energy and to resort to alternative sources to avoid fluctuations in earnings and equity prices. In the countries that heavily depend on oil efforts should focus on diversifying the domestic economy away from oil to protect against oil price fluctuations. Originality/value - To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the influence of oil price uncertainty in the MENA region. The sample contains both oil importing and oil exporting countries that depend heavily on oil production and exports. The empirical findings of the paper have valuable policy implications for investors, market participants and policymakers.

The effect of market structure, regulation, and risk on banks efficiency: Evidence from the Gulf cooperation council countries

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the efficiency performance of the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) banking sector. The primary focus is to assess whether market power, risk taking activities, and regulations have significant effects on GCC banks’ efficiency performance. Design/methodology/approach - – The estimation and inference has been implemented using a double bootstrap procedure that simultaneously corrects for bias and validates inference on the influence of covariates. In the first stage, efficiency scores are estimated with data envelopment analysis (DEA). In the second stage, variation in the resulting efficiency scores is explained using a truncated regression model with inference based on a semi-parametric bootstrap routine. Findings - – The authors found compelling evidence that efficiency is not independent of the market structure, the banks risk taking activities, and the regulatory environment. In particular, the Lerner Index provides evidence that market power decreases efficiency. The capital adequacy, the supervisory power and the market discipline were all found to improve efficiency. Additionally, when the risk is measured by the Research limitations/implications - – The results of the current study have important implications for regulators and supervisors. Promoting banks’ competitive environment in the GCC countries through reducing the information barriers to entry, encouraging bank privatization, and lowering the activities restrictions can potentially improve operational efficiency of banks. Also enhancing banks’ diversification activities and risk management techniques may have the advantage of increasing operational efficiency. Furthermore, improvements in the regulatory conditions that enhance banking supervision and monitoring would also improve efficiency. Originality/value - – The main contributions of the paper are threefold: first, to the knowledge, this study is the first to employ by far the most comprehensive data set of GCC banks investigated to date. Second, the analysis focusses on the influence of a wide set of factors, most of them was not covered before in related economic literature on bank efficiency of the GCC countries. Third, the methodological innovation involves applying a double bootstrap procedure proposed by Simar and Wilson (2007).

Testing for long-range dependence in stock market returns: a further evidence from MENA emerging stock markets

The financial rates of return from Middle East and North African markets are found to be nonnormal, nonstationary and long-range dependent, i.e. they have long memory. The degree of long-term dependence is measured by Hurst exponents using local Whittle method which is a semi-parametric method that presents robustness to data seasonality and short-range dependence. Our long-term results are consistent with similar empirical findings from American, European and Asian financial markets. Therefore, the article extends the domain of the empirical investigation of the dynamics characteristics of the global financial markets and disproves the hypothesis of perfectly efficient financial markets.

Price Limit and Volatility in Taiwan Stock Exchange: Some Additional Evidence from the Extreme Value Approach

We reexamine the effects of price limits on stock volatility of Taiwan Stock Exchange using a new methodology based on the Extreme-Value technique. Consistent with the advocates of price limits, we find that stock market volatility is sharply moderated under more restrictive price limits.

Does issuing government debt needed as a Ponzi scheme in Islamic finance : a general equilibrium model

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to theoretically describe the role of Zakah as a vital tool of fiscal policy in achieving Pareto optimality. Design/methodology/approach - The paper sets a general equilibrium model that describes the long-run convergence to a Pareto optimal allocation in a theoretical Islamic economy. The model is based on Diamond criteria where the social planner maximizes the utility of all generations subject to the output of the economy. Findings - While the government in the capitalist economy issues debt like T-bills and government bonds to insure Pareto optimality, the paper shows, theoretically, that constructing a Zakah fund can take the role of issuing debt in financial markets. Furthermore, the paper shows that Islamic economy converges to Pareto optimality by its nature without issuing debt in the financial market. Research implications - This result is very important in describing the strength of the theoretical Islamic economics in achieving dynamic efficiency with least possible interventions. More importantly, the results would help the government in setting an optimal tax rate that insures Pareto efficiency without issuing debt. Originality/value - This paper attempts to model the actual effects of Zakah as a fiscal policy tool in wealth redistribution in an Islamic economy. In addition, the paper opens a wide channel for future research in conducting monetary and fiscal policy in a governments debt tools economies.