Alain Durré

How Does Liquidity React to Stress Periods in a Limit Order Market

This paper looks at the interplay of volatility and liquidity on the Euronext trading platform during the December 2, 2002 to April 30, 2003 time period. Using transaction and order book data for some large- and mid-cap Brussels-traded stocks on Euronext, we study the ex-ante liquidity vs volatility and ex-post liquidity vs volatility relationships to ascertain if the high volatility led to decreases in liquidity and large trading costs. We show that the provision of liquidity remains adequate when volatility increases, although we do find that it is more costly to trade and that the market dynamics is somewhat affected when volatility is high.

Stock Market Valuation in the United States

This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market valuation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term perspective. It then appears that some bear markets were more pronounced in the past but that the bull market preceding the 2000-2002 bear market had been particularly long and impressive in extent. Given this sharp correction, we will discuss whether the S&P 500 was correctly valued at the end of 2002. To this end, we make use of valuation indicators defined as the ratio of the price to a fundamental. The fundamentals considered here are, according to the discount dividend model, annual earnings and, according to Q-theory, net worth. In December 2002, price-earnings (P/E) still showed a significant overvaluation of equity prices when compared to the historical average over the 1871-2002 period but, since July 2002, the overvaluation has not been significant in the case of Q. The evidence is even more mixed when the comparison is made, for each valuation indicator, with their average over the last 10 years. Simulations based on VAR models for P/E and Q were carried out to check whether, on two occasions, the S&P 500 in real terms climbed to a level perceived as irrational given past experience, implying that a correction had to be expected. These occasions were the so-called 1929 and 2000 bubbles. The models showed that, at some point in time before the peak in (real) stock prices was reached, the real S&P 500 exceeded the upper band of the 95 p.c. confidence intervals during both periods. For each of them, the Q model showed earlier and more persistent signals of significant overvaluation of stock prices than for the P/E model. Finally, in December 2002, both models indicated that the stock price had come back largely within the confidence interval.

Fiscal Integration and Growth Stimulation in Europe

With the current sovereign debt crisis, the incompleteness of economic integration in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has become patent leading to an intense debate among academics and policy makers. Most of the debate focuses on the needs to strengthen fiscal rules and to restore fiscal imbalances through austerity measures which weigh on growth prospects. In this paper we analyse current economic developments within the euro area through the lens of general equilibrium theory. We address two issues (international sharing of macroeconomics risks and coordinated growth stimulation) which are essential to guarantee the sustainability of the EMU. More specifically, we propose mechanisms to cope with intergenerational and interregional risks while focusing on (fiscally neutral) investments meeting social needs and apt to break the vicious circle between fiscal imbalances and stagnation.

Conflict and Social and Political Preferences: Evidence from World War II and Civil Conflict in 35 European Countries

This paper uses new micro-level evidence from a nationally representative survey of 39,500 individuals in 35 countries to shed light on how individual experiences of conflict shape political and social preferences. The investigation covers World War II and recent civil conflict. Overwhelmingly, the results point to the negative and enduring legacy of war-related violence on political trust and perceived effectiveness of national institutions, although the effects are heterogeneous across different types (external versus internal) and outcomes (victory versus defeat) of conflict. Conflict spurs collective action, but of a dark nature, one associated with further erosion of social and political trust.

Requirements for Using Interest Rates As An Operating Target for Monetary Policy:The Case of Tunisia

This paper discusses the use of interest rates as the operating target for monetary policy in Tunisia and the roadmap for establishing the other building blocks of an inflation targeting framework. It argues that strengthening the effectiveness of the current monetary policy framework will facilitate the adoption of inflation targeting over time.

The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area

Abstract This paper investigates to what extent the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates receives some support since the launch of the European single currency. Empirical evidence shows that in general this theory applies to most European countries, and to Germany in particular. The objective of this paper thus is twofold. First, the EHTS for the German money market and for a larger sample including the German mark period and the euro money market is tested in order to check whether the results for the former are affected by the new financial environment since January 1999. Second, the implications of the results for the monetary policy assessment are discussed. We estimate cointegrating vector autoregressive models in order to quantify the level of the liquidity premium. The results suggest that financial markets do not consider the monetary policy of the European Central Bank simply as the one prevailing during the German period.

The Journey to Inflation Targeting: Easier Said than Done the Case for Transitional Arrangements Along the Road

Countries with evolving monetary regimes that decide to embark on “the Journey to inflation targeting” may not be able to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime immediately. Those countries would be better off adopting transitional arrangements that take advantage of the informational content of monetary aggregates, developing an economic analysis capacity, and concentrating on monetary operations aimed at steering money market interest rates. This approach would allow the central bank to buy time for developing the building blocks for effective monetary policy, support transparent central bank communication, and limit the potential for undesirable outcomes along the road.

Fixing the Fixings: What Road to a More Representative Money Market Benchmark?

Interest rate derivatives on major currencies, with notional outstanding amounts adding up to hundreds of trillions, are mostly indexed on Libor and Euribor benchmarks, as are hundreds of billions in loans to enterprises, mortgages and other retail loans to the real economy. Yet, the prevailing role of these benchmarks appears to be more a legacy from history rather than reflecting today?s structure of banks? funding. Building on earlier work (Brousseau, Chailloux, Durre, 2009), this paper discusses various options to move towards a new benchmarking system in the money market. It proposes a more ambitious benchmark design that would consist of a trade-weighted index that would systematically pool all short-term wholesale funding operations of banks per tenor.

The European Central Bank and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Since the onset of financial turmoil in August 2007, the main central banks worldwide have implemented extraordinary standard and non-standard monetary measures. Accommodative fiscal measures were also implemented on a large scale. These measures have questioned the sustainability of public finances in various euro area countries, which led to the current sovereign debt crisis. The current sovereign debt crisis is even more challenging as it affects the value of banks’ assets and their collateral, and therefore increases risks to the economic outlook. Against this background, this chapter describes the actions of the European Central Bank (and their rationale) while discussing the necessary separation between the responsibilities of central banks and government. Finally, some lessons about the possible adjustment of the roles of central banks and fiscal authorities in the euro area are also addressed.