Alain Nurbel

Long-memory and shifts in the unconditional variance in the exchange rate euro/US dollar returns

In this paper two characteristics a priori contradictory and yet coexistent in the daily returns of exchange rate euro/US dollar are drawn. The non-stationarity of the covariance structure of the series is shown and, after the extraction of the unstable variance using the algorithm based on the cumulative sums of squares of Inclan and Tiao (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1994, 89(427), 913–23), the existence of long-memory in the filtered series. Does the non-stationarity of the unconditional variance explain the phenomenon of long-memory? Thus a classic debate is found of which the exit does not again elucidate.

Multiple structural regimes in real exchange rate misalignment: the case of Australian dollar

We apply the Bai and Perron method (Econometrica, 1998, 66, 47–78) to search for several structural changes in the real exchange rate misalignment data of the Australian dollar over January 1976 to February 2000. Then, the estimated structural breaks dates are compared with Australian monetary and exchange rate regimes from 1976. This brings us to conclude that a good monetary management is needed to face real exchange rate distortions. Besides, implementing a policy-mix by combining an inflation targeting policy and a dirty flexible exchange rate policy turns out to be really effective to struggle real misalignments as far as Australia is concerned.