Alan Arwine

Birth Order and Political Behavior: Clearing the Underbrush

Birth order has been implicated in a wide variety of human behaviors. One aspect of this is the contention that those who are first born differ in important respects politically from later born people. Actual findings from empirical research are surveyed to see the extent to which birth order affects both mass and elite political behavior. The meta-analysis suggests no clear pattern of findings supportive of the posited birth order-politics linkage; furthermore, the bulk of the studies that do indicate some relationship are methodologically flawed. It appears that further, more refined research is necessary to demonstrate that the linkage exists.

Birth Order and British Prime Ministers: a Second Look

In recent decades the study of the putative relationship between birth order (especially being first-born) and human behaviour has become a good-sized industry. The English, French and German language literature alone, almost doubling over the past dozen years, now numbers some two thousand plus articles, papers and books. In this literature, being first-born has been linked to a truly staggering range of attributes. Among the most familiar of these presumably dependent variables are intelligence, education, personality traits, and career achievement. But that is barely the beginning. Beyond this, birth order has been claimed to associate with (to offer a small sample) left-handedness, lesbianism, eccentricity, body weight, suicide, sports preferences, unwed motherhood, traffic tickets, personal popularity, sensory deprivation, virginity, depression and, as a last compelling instance, becoming a professional strip-teaser. As might be expected, being first-born has also been related to political behaviour, with some fifty items exploring that possibi1ity.l Of these, though, there is only one which bears directly on British politics; that, of course, is Stewart’s analysis of the birth order of British prime ministers.2 In his study, which dealt with both American presidents and British prime ministers, Stewart reported a definite birth order patterning for the former but none for the latter. Our own examination of the relationship between birth order and accession to the White House3 led us to question and ultimately to reject Stewart’s ‘presidential’ findings; it also suggested the desirability of a second look at the prime ministers. That suggestion was strengthened by the fact that Stewart (1) began with the younger Pitt rather than with Walpole; (2) ended with Macmillan in 1963 (there have since then been six other occupants of 10 Downing

The Changing Bases of Political Conflict in Western Europe: The Cases of Belgium and Austria

A change in the basis of political conflict has occurred in the West from a political arena dominated by issues of social class and religiosity to one dominated by issues of identity with either the nation-state or a subculture reflected in the declining vote share of mainstream parties of interests and the emergence of parties of identity. These new parties have been identified as “radical right” but they are distinct from parties of the classic right. We develop a causal model using World Values data (1990 and 1999 waves) from Austria, a country with a national identity party, and Belgium, a country with a party of subcultural defense, to show the attributes of supporters for the emerging parties of identity are the same at the national or subcultural levels and are distinct from those predicting support for the classic right.

Birth order as a factor in presidential selection and performance

Abstract Birth order has long been assumed to have an impact on peoples behavior, with first borns normally believed to differ from later borns in achievement motivation, and the like. This essay explores the relationship between birth order and presidential selection and performance. Generally, an analysis of American presidents suggests that birth order has rather little impact on the selection of a president and on the performance of a president once in office.

Belgium: The Politics of Extreme Segmentation

When Belgium gained its independence in 1830, it was linguistically and culturally French. Increasing immigration by the Flemish who are linguistically and culturally distinct from the original Francophones challenged the French character of Belgian society. Pressure by the Flemish to elevate their language to an official status brought about fundamental constitutional change beginning in 1970. This process completed Belgium’s transformation from a unitary state into a loose confederation in which the final power devolved to cultural councils that governed each of the sub-cultures. The party system accommodated these cultural and constitutional changes with the appearance of populist parties of sub-cultural identity. A proportional electoral system permits this fragmentation of the party system in which no party draws significant support from outside its geographically defined sub-culture.

Conclusion: Patterns of Change in Advanced Western Democracies

This book has explored the changing bases of identity and community in the West. Identification with class and religion declined after World War II and was partially replaced by Inglehart’ s post-materialism. Over the last 30 years, wages have decreased in relative to productivity, denying both the worker of income and the state of tax revenues. The recession, with its high unemployment and reduced tax collections, has contributed to an economic stagnation and government austerity that, in turn, have contributed to a decline in tolerance, especially toward a Muslim sub-culture. This economic crisis has also contributed to Euroskepticism, doubts about the wisdom of the elite-led European Union. The party systems of Western democracies have accommodated these social and cultural changes in part by moving toward the American model of broad, ideologically diffuse parties. Change is inexorable, posing a challenge to the values of the West.

Introduction: The Forces Producing the New Politics of Identity

The early post–World War II years saw the Western world mired in what appeared to be a fixed cleavage structure centering on issues relating to class and religion. The stability of this cleavage structure was shattered by forces unleashed by modernization as the bases of the old cleavage structure became decreasingly salient. Liberalism and conservatism were challenged by the changing structure of the economy as the urban industrial work force was diminished in numbers and strength. Religiosity was challenged by the secularization of the West. In their place, people sought meaning in their lives through new bases of identity by resurrecting the venerable concept of populism, a movement of non-elites focusing on identity with either the nation-state or an isolated and alienated sub-culture.

The Netherlands: Politics in a Fragmented Culture

The Netherlands epitomizes a parliamentary regime with a fragmented party system thus raising issues of stability and effectiveness. These issues have been exacerbated by the pillarization of Dutch society unity into five mutually isolated sub-cultures each with one or more political parties. The Dutch electoral scheme of a form of proportional representation permitted the development of a fragmented party system rendering the formation of a governing coalition a daunting task. The pillarization of Dutch society has weakened leading to the emergence of a new set of parties concerned with issues of identity. A Muslim sub-culture that resisted assimilation was perceived to be an existential threat. This weakened the social and political tolerance for which the Dutch are famed.

Political Change in a Stable Two Party State: The United States

America epitomizes the model of a stable two party majoritarian system using a plurality electoral system creating a diminished opportunity structure to facilitate the establishment of minor parties. The party systems of the West have represented the traditional cleavages with families of parties – Christian Democracy, labor or social democratic – in aggregated party systems. These traditional cleavages are being displaced by the politics of identity based on national patriotism or sub-cultural defense. These sub-cultures are challenging the sense of an American community with a resistance to assimilation known as multi-culturalism. This sense of an American community is reinforced through the American creed, a creed that conflicted with America’s treatment of racial minorities.