Alan J. Rogers

LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATIONS REGRESSION UNDER NONSTANDARD CONDITIONS

Most work on the asymptotic properties of least absolute deviations (LAD) estimators makes use of the assumption that the common distribution of the disturbances has a density that is both positive and finite at zero. We consider the implications of weakening this assumption in a number of regression settings, primarily with a time series orientation. These models include ones with deterministic and stochastic trends, and we pay particular attention to the case of a simple unit root model. The way in which the conventional assumption on the error distribution is modified is motivated in part by N.V. Smirnovs work on domains of attraction in the asymptotic theory of sample quantiles. The approach adopted usually allows for simple characterizations (often featuring a single parameter, I³), of both the shapes of the limiting distributions of the LAD estimators and their convergence rates. The present paper complements the closely related recent work of K. Knight.

Trade policy and international finance in the Bretton woods era: A doctrinal perspective with reference to Australia and New Zealand

The Bretton Woods system embodied a self-imposed liquidity constraint. Trade policy was subordinated to the maintenance of official foreign reserves used to defend fixed exchange rates. In Australia and New Zealand, reserves were considered a form of national self-insurance against the instability of export receipts and the liquidity problem was often referred to as the ‘foreign exchange constraint’ – as if it were exogenously given rather than the result of certain policies, and it reinforced inward-looking trade policies. International financial arrangements, including severe restrictions on cross-border capital flows, delimited thought and action in connection with Australian and New Zealand trade policy.

Does New Zealand economics have a useful past? The example of trade policy and economic development

ABSTRACT We examine the history of economic thought on trade policy in New Zealand from the 1920s to the early 1980s. The focus is upon the different doctrinal perspectives taken by academic economists in New Zealand. Throughout the period under review policymakers supported an inward-looking trade and development regime buttressed by extensive interventionist trade policy. Appeals to the employment argument for industrialization through import substitution lent their policies a veneer of economic respectability. Most economists were not persuaded; they argued against quantitative import controls, discriminatory tariffs and cumbersome export incentive schemes and offered, in vain, constructive alternatives that relied on price signals rather than administrative rules. One of our main findings is that most of the early work exposited here anticipated the rent seeking explanation for the configuration of trade policy.

The Bahadur Efficiency of Tests of Some Joint Hypotheses

Abstract This article examines the relative efficiency of finite induced and Wald-like (or “infinite induced”) tests of some commonly encountered joint hypotheses. One two-sided testing problem and two types of two-sided testing problems concerning two parameters and normally distributed estimates are considered. The exact slopes of six test statistics are derived, and from these the Bahadur relative efficiency of tests based on any pair of the statistics can be easily computed. For the problems considered, Bahadur relative efficiency is equal to limiting Pitman efficiency, whereas Pitman relative efficiency coincides with exact finite sample relative efficiency. I present numerical results showing that Bahadur relative efficiency generally approximates Pitman efficiency rather poorly, although the patterns exhibited by these two efficiency criteria bear a reasonable similarity in most cases.

The economists and New Zealand population: problems and policies 1900–1980s

ABSTRACT We examine contrasting modalities of economic thought by economists on population problems and policies in NZ, 1900–1980s. Since the early 1900s, NZ economists have been concerned with interactions between economic and demographic outcomes. During the inter-war period, Malthusian concerns became muted because NZs population growth rate slowed appreciably in the 1930s. A ‘laissez-faire’ position was articulated among some economists in terms of external migration flows; others debated the implications of a stationary population. The post-WWII era ushered in a doctrine of ‘stable population Keynesianism’ based on optimistic neo-Malthusianism that perspective clashed with contemporary views on population expansion and the promotion of immigration coextensive with the policy of planned industrialization. An intellectual void became apparent in the early 1980s, perhaps because concern with the dynamics of population change in a small, liberalized, open economy seemed misplaced. Lessons are drawn from this intellectual history that may inform modern debate on population policy, broadly conceived.

Concentration Ellipsoids, Their Planes of Support, and the Linear Regression Model

The relationship between the concentration ellipsoid of a random vector and its planes of support is exploited to provide a geometric derivation and interpretation of existing results for a general form of the linear regression model. In particular, the planes of support whose points of tangency to the ellipsoid are contained in the range (or column space) of the design matrix are the source of all linear unbiased minimum variance estimators. The connection between this idea and estimators based on projections is explored, as is also its use in obtaining and interpreting some existing relative efficiency results.