Alan Pearce

Seasonal variation in the long-term warming trend in water temperature off the Western Australian coast

Previous studies have demonstrated that one area of greatest increase in surface sea temperatures (SST) (0.02°C per year) in the Indian Ocean over the last 50 years occurs off the lower west coast of Australia, an area dominated by the Leeuwin Current. The present paper examines water temperature trends at several coastal sites since the early 1970s: two rock lobster puerulus monitoring sites in shallow water (<5 m); four sites from a monitoring program onboard rock lobster vessels that provide bottom water temperature (<36 m); and an environmental monitoring site at Rottnest (0–50 m depth). Two global SST datasets are also examined. These data show that there was a strong seasonal variation in the historic increases in temperature off the lower west coast of Australia, with most of the increases (0.02–0.035°C per year) only focussed on 4–6 months over the austral autumn–winter with little or no increase (<0.01°C per year) apparent in the austral spring–summer period. These increases are also apparent after taking into account the interannual variation in the strength of the Leeuwin Current. The warming trend results in a change to the seasonal temperature cycle over the decades, with a delay in the peak in the temperature cycle during autumn between the 1950s and 2000s of ~10–20 days. A delay in the timing of the minimum temperature is also apparent at Rottnest from August–September to October. This seasonal variation in water temperature increases and its effect on the annual temperature cycle should be examined in climate models because it provides the potential to better understand the specific processes through which climate change and global warming are affecting this region of the Indian Ocean. It also provides an opportunity to further test the climate models to see whether this aspect is predicted in the future projections of how increases will be manifest. Any seasonal variation in water temperature increase has important implications for fisheries and the marine ecosystem because it may affect many aspects of the annual life cycle such as timing of growth, moulting, mating, spawning and recruitment, which have to be taken into account in the stock assessment and management of fisheries.

Decadal increase in Ningaloo Niño since the late 1990s

Ningaloo Nino refers to the episodic occurrence of anomalously warm ocean conditions along the subtropical coast of Western Australia (WA). Ningaloo Nino typically develops in austral spring, peaks in summer, and decays in autumn, and it often occurs in conjunction with La Nina conditions in the Pacific which promote poleward transport of warm tropical waters by the Leeuwin Current. Since the late 1990s, there has been a marked increase in the occurrence of Ningaloo Nino, which is likely related to the recent swing to the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and enhanced El Nino–Southern Oscillation variance since 1970s. The swing to the negative IPO sustains positive heat content anomalies and initiates more frequent cyclonic wind anomalies off the WA coast so favoring enhanced poleward heat transport by the Leeuwin Current. The anthropogenically forced global warming has made it easier for natural variability to drive extreme ocean temperatures in the region.

Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot

Abstract An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2–5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above‐average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone (Haliotis roei) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops (Amusium balloti), king (Penaeus latisulcatus) and tiger (P. esculentus) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre‐recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.

Remote sensing study of the phytoplankton spatial-temporal cycle in the southeastern Indian Ocean

Data from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was used to study the abundance and variability of chlorophyll a in the southeastern Indian Ocean, an interesting region because it includes the Indonesian through-flow and the anomalous Leeuwin Current. This study is the first to interpret the CZCS observations in terms of the spatial-temporal variability of this large area. The period of data (1979 to 1986) covered the full cycle (pre, during and post) of a major El Nino event, which has yet to be done by the more recent ocean color sensors. The highest seasonal mean chlorophyll a concentrations along the NorthWest Shelf of Australia occurred in Summer (January-March) and in coastal areas off south-western Australia in Autumn (April-June). Concentrations in the offshore oceanic regions were mostly poor. Exceptions to this occurred in proximity to the adjacent Indonesian islands and directly south of Albany (possibly due to northwards flow of subantarctic nutrient-rich waters). A considerable interannual variation was also noted, with the highest mean chlorophyll a concentrations occurring in 1981, 1982 and 1983.