Alan R. Hinman

Summary and Conclusions: Measles Elimination Meeting, 16–17 March 2000

On 16-17 March 2000, the National Immunization Program of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened 12 consultants and 10 resource specialists to review the present status of measles in the United States and to provide individual opinions on 4 questions: Is measles currently endemic in the United States? If current information is not sufficient to make such a determination, what additional information is needed? Is it possible or desirable to establish a precise definition of elimination? What elements of the US immunization program should be modified or strengthened to achieve/maintain elimination? The consultants and resource specialists are listed after the text. The meeting included a series of presentations, contained in this supplement issue of The Journal of Infectious Diseases, followed by open discussion among the consultants and delivery of their opinions.

Global progress in infectious disease control

There is both good news and bad news concerning infectious disease control globally. The good news is that smallpox has been eradicated, eradication of poliomyelitis and guinea worm disease is on track, and many infectious diseases are under effective control in much of the world. The advances are primarily the result of improved sanitation, effective use of vaccines, and introduction and use of specific therapies (whose impact has primarily been on mortality, rather than incidence). The bad news is that infectious diseases are still the leading cause of death world-wide, new diseases are emerging, old diseases are re-emerging, there are ominous interactions between diseases, and antibiotic resistance is emerging as a major problem. There are many promising developments for the future, including new and improved vaccines, new specific therapies, and new strategies to deal with infectious disease. However, unless eradicated, infectious diseases remain a threat and require continuous efforts to be kept under control. Given the ability of infectious agents to evolve, it is certain that the future will also hold new problems and new diseases.

Evolution of measles elimination strategies in the United States.

There have been 3 efforts to eliminate measles from the United States since the introduction of measles vaccine in 1963. To date, 10 major lessons have been learned from elimination efforts. First, elimination requires very high vaccination-coverage levels by age 2 years. Second, school immunization requirements ensure high coverage rates among schoolchildren. Third, a second dose of measles vaccine is needed to achieve satisfactory levels of immunity. Fourth, school immunization requirements can also ensure delivery of a second dose. Fifth, coverage assessment is crucial. Sixth, measles surveillance is critical for developing, evaluating, and refining elimination strategies. Seventh, surveillance requires laboratory backup to confirm a diagnosis. Eighth, tracking measles virus genotypes is critical to determining if an endemic strain is circulating. Ninth, once endemic transmission has been interrupted, internationally imported measles cases will continue and will cause small outbreaks. Tenth, collaborative efforts with other countries are essential to reduce imported measles cases.

Epidemiology of Measles in the United States, 1997-2001

Of the 540 measles cases (annual incidence, less than 1/million population) reported during 1997-2001 in the United States, 362 (67%) were associated with international importation: 196 imported cases, 138 cases epidemiologically linked to imported cases, and 28 cases associated with an imported measles virus genotype. The remaining 178 (33%) unknown-source cases were analyzed as potential evidence of endemic measles transmission. A total of 83 counties (2.6% of the 3140 US counties) in 27 states reported unknown-source cases; 49 counties reported only 1 unknown-source case, and the maximum reported by any county was 10. Nationally, unknown-source cases were reported in 103 of the 260 weeks. The largest unknown-source outbreak included 13 cases and lasted 5 weeks. The rarity of unknown-source cases, wide gaps in geographic and temporal distribution, and the short duration of the longest unknown-source outbreak indicate that endemic transmission of measles was not sustained in the United States during this period.

Live or inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine: an analysis of benefits and risks.

Using decision analysis we evaluated the benefits and risks of continued primary reliance on oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV) compared to use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). We followed a hypothetical cohort of 3.5 million children from birth to age 30 assuming 95 per cent coverage with 98 per cent effective vaccine. Primary reliance on IPV would result in more cases of paralytic poliomyelitis as well as more susceptibles remaining in the population than would be expected with continuing OPV use (74.1 vs 10.0 cases and 5.9 per cent vs 1.1 per cent susceptibles, respectively). However, with OPV use, most cases of paralysis seen would be associated with the vaccine. Our analysis supports a continuation of current US policy placing primary reliance on OPV but the conclusion is heavily dependent on assumptions of risk of exposure to wild virus in the United States. Major declines in risk of exposure to wild virus could alter the balance significantly.

Structuring HIV prevention service delivery systems on the basis of social science theory.

In order to identify the optimal configuration of HIV prevention programs, it is necessary to examine different theoretical models of behavior change. Cognitive/decision-making theories of human behavior change are compared to social learning theories vis-a-vis their influence on the structure of service delivery systems. Cognitive/decision-making theories ascribe behavior change to the provision of new information and favor the development of homogeneous interventions providing clients with information about risk behaviors. These interventions are easily standardized across delivery sites and various target populations. Social learning theories view behavior change as a series of stages and recognize the influence of sociocultural variables. They favor multiple heterogeneous interventions in a variety of settings, with the provision of skills training as well as information. Ongoing HIV prevention research indicates that social learning theories provide a more accurate paradigm of human behavior change for the complex behaviors related to HIV risk. Public health agencies must therefore continue to strengthen organizational and referral relationships with community-based organizations that can provide the specialized prevention interventions called for by social learning theory. This will require ongoing collaboration and technical assistance.

Monitoring system for adverse events following immunization.

The Monitoring System for Adverse Events Following Immunization (MSAEFI) has collected data from the public sector nationwide on adverse events occurring during the 4-week period following administration of vaccine. From 1979 to 1984, 6483 reports were received. Although rates of reporting have increased throughout the 6-year period, increases were larger for less serious events (209%) than for more serious events (53%). The MSAEFI data have been used to evaluate risk factors for adverse events following immunization, will continue to provide information on the safety of both current and future vaccines and may identify other factors that increase the risks of adverse events following immunization.

Population Immunity to Measles in the United States, 1999

To estimate population immunity, we examined measles immunity among residents of the United States in 1999 from serological and vaccine coverage surveys. For persons aged >or=20 years, serological data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) were used. For persons <20 years of age, immunity was estimated from results of the National Immunization Survey (1994-1998), state surveys of school entrants (1990-2000), and vaccine coverage surveys of adolescents (1997). To estimate immunity from vaccine coverage data, 95% vaccine efficacy was used for recipients of a single dose at >or=12 years of age and 99% vaccine efficacy was used for those with failure of a first dose who were revaccinated. Overall, calculated population immunity was found to be 93%. Although there was not much variation in immunity by region and state, in some large urban centers immunity among preschool-aged children was as low as 86%. Overall, geographic- and age-specific estimates of a high population immunity support the epidemiological evidence that measles disease is no longer endemic in the United States.

History of convulsions and use of pertussis vaccine

Data on 2062 reports from the Monitoring System for Adverse Events Following Immunization, Centers for Disease Control (CDC), were analyzed to compare the risk of a personal or family history of convulsions in children who had a neurologic adverse event after receipt of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine with those who had a nonneurologic adverse event. Children with a neurologic event after DTP vaccine had a 7.2 times higher risk for personal history of convulsions (95% confidence limits 4.5 to 11.5) and a 4.5 times higher risk for family history of convulsions (95% confidence limits 3.1 to 6.7) than did children with an adverse event that did not affect the nervous system. Children with either a febrile or nonfebrile convulsion after receipt of DTP were significantly more likely to have a personal history of convulsions than children with a nonneurologic adverse event (P less than 0.0001). Children with a febrile convulsion after receipt of DTP but not children with nonfebrile convulsions were significantly more likely to have a family history of convulsions than those with a nonneurologic adverse event. It is recommended that pertussis vaccination be deferred in children with a personal history of a convulsion until it can be determined that an evolving neurologic disorder is not present. If such disorders are found, these children should be given the combined pediatric diphtheria and tetanus toxoids (DT) vaccine to complete the series.

American College of Epidemiology

The Twelfth Annual Scientific Meeting of the American College of Epidemiology will take place at the Holiday Inn, Bethesda, Maryland, on September 20 and 21, 1993. The theme of the meeting is “Aging”. Further information about the meeting can be obtained from Dr. Dan Hoffman, Professor of Health Care Sciences, George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, 2 150 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Room 28426, Washington D.C. 20037. Most of the meeting will consist of invited state-of-the-art presentations but there will be some opportunity for submitted papers. Abstracts should be sent to Dr. Hoffman by July 1, 1993. Rates at the Holiday Inn for the ACE Meeting will be