Alan Ramsay

Do Australian Companies Manage Earnings to Meet Simple Earnings Benchmarks

Measurement error in unexpected accruals is an important problem for empirical earnings management research. Several recent studies avoid this problem by examining the pooled, cross–sectional distribution of reported earnings. Discontinuities in the distribution of reported earnings around key earnings thresholds may indicate the exercise of management discretion (i.e. earnings management). We apply this approach to the detection of earnings management by Australian firms. Our results generally indicate significantly more small earnings increases and small profits than expected and conversely, considerably fewer small earnings decreases and small losses than expected. These results are much stronger for larger Australian firms. We undertake an exploratory analysis of alternative explanations for our results and find some evidence consistent with management signalling its inside knowledge about the firms expected future profitability to smooth earnings, as opposed to ‘management intent to deceive’ as an explanation for our results.

The use and representational faithfulness of graphs in Australian IPO prospectuses

This paper investigates the use of graphs, selection of variables to graph and construction of graphs in prospectuses issued by Australian companies making their initial public offering (IPO) of shares to the Australian capital market. The paper formulates and tests hypotheses concerning selectivity in the use of graphs and distortion in the construction of graphs presented in IPO prospectuses, as well as providing descriptive evidence about the use of graphs in such prospectuses. Results show that firms enjoying improving profit performance are significantly more likely to include graphs of key financial variables in their prospectuses than firms suffering deteriorating profit performance. Thus, similar to studies of graphs in annual reports, evidence of selectivity in the inclusion of graphs is found. No significant relationship is found between performance on the variable being graphed and distortion in the construction of the graph. When the graphs are split between those covering key financial variables and other variables, a significant relationship is found in both categories. For graphs of other variables, a significant positive association is found between performance and distortion. However, the relationship for key financial variables is in the opposite direction to that suggested by impression management. Further analysis identifies significant sub‐period differences in selectivity and distortion which are consistent with the view that the major regulatory and institutional changes outlined in the paper, reduced the extent of selectivity and graphical distortion in the post‐1991 period. As far as we are aware, this is the first study reported in the literature to investigate the use of graphs in prospectuses. The results also have policy implications for the regulatory authority in Australia.

Earnings persistence, accruals and managerial share ownership

We investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and a broad measure of total accruals (TACC). We propose and find that in Australia, TACC is less persistent than cash flows. We further propose that the persistence of accrual components is positively associated with the reliability of those components. However, we find that the least reliable accrual component has the greatest persistence and suggest possible reasons for this. We then investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and managerial share ownership, but find no evidence of a consistent, strong relationship. Rather, for the non-current operating accruals we find evidence consistent with incentive alignment for large firms with high operating cash flows, whereas for small firms we find evidence consistent with efficient contracting.

An investigation into the measurement of graph distortion in financial reports

Abstract The Graph Discrepancy Index (GDI), which originates from the lie factor introduced by Tufte (1983), is the mechanism commonly used in the financial graphics literature to determine whether graphs are distorted and to quantify the extent of such distortion. Although the GDI is critical to the financial graphics literature, little or no attention has been paid to its robustness and accuracy. We critically examine the mathematical characteristics of the GDI and show its limitations as a measure of graph distortion. We review a number of cases to demonstrate these limitations and present an alternative measure of graph distortion—the Relative Graph Discrepancy index (RGD). Numerous simulations suggest that the RGD overcomes the problems associated with the GDI. The RGD is also tested on data presented in earlier research and the results are compared to those obtained using the GDI. In comparison with the GDI, we find that the RGD is more consistent and produces slightly stronger results. We stress, however, that this is not a best or definitive measure but is intended to start a research process that leads to a generally accepted measure.

Management earnings forecasts in a continuous disclosure environment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess management earnings forecasts in a continuous disclosure environment.Design/methodology/approach – A large sample of hand checked Australian management earnings forecasts are examined. These data are analysed using a series of logistic regressions. Hypotheses are proposed and tested based on Skinners litigation cost hypothesis. Increases in non‐routine management earnings forecasts post‐2000; and increases in the proportion of such forecasts that contain bad news are predicted. The relationship between forecast specificity and forecast news content is investigated.Findings – It was found that, post‐2000, legislative changes and increased enforcement action by ASIC were followed by increased disclosure of non‐routine management earnings forecasts. For routine forecasts, no significant increase in forecast disclosure is observed. This result is consistent with Skinner as is the finding that the increased disclosure is only apparent for bad news non‐routine f...

The Effects of Board Characteristics on Earnings Management around Australian CEO Changes

Prior research has shown evidence of earnings management in financial reports of US and Australian firms changing chief executive officer (CEO). This paper examines whether corporate boards, with certain characteristics associated with strong corporate governance, are effective in controlling any earnings management in the financial reports of Australian firms that change CEOs. Since hiring, monitoring and replacing the CEO are key roles of the board of directors, research in this specific context is considered particularly appropriate. After controlling for contemporaneous and lagged profitability in the year of CEO change, we find evidence of negative unexpected accruals in our sub‐sample of firms where the CEO resigned. For this group, larger boards and a higher proportion of independent directors appear to limit observed negative earnings management. In the case of CEO retirements there is evidence of positive unexpected accruals in the period of CEO change. However, none of the board characteristics show any significant relationship with unexpected accruals. In the period after CEO change, we find no evidence of positive unexpected accruals for CEO resignations and none of the board characteristics show any significant relationship with unexpected accruals. For CEO retirements, our analysis indicates that a higher proportion of executive and affiliated director shareholding goes some way towards counteracting the observed positive unexpected accruals. When lagged unexpected accruals are included in the regression equation to control for accrual reversals, CEO duality significantly increases the already positive earnings management found in CEO retirements in the period following CEO change.

Testing for asymmetric effects in the accrual anomaly using piecewise linear regressions : Australian evidence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the persistence and pricing of earnings, free cash flows (FCF) and accruals using Australian data. In response to arguments concerning omitted variables in the Mishkin test, it seeks to explore asymmetric effects by incorporating categoric variables capturing firm size (microcap, small, medium and large); industry (industrial/mining); profit making (profit/loss); and dividend paying (contemporaneous dividend/no contemporaneous dividend) into forecasting and pricing equations.Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines a large sample of hand‐checked Australian earnings, accruals and cash flow data. It analyses these data using a series of piecewise linear regressions.Findings – The results indicate that asymmetry is a valid concern since the extent and nature of mispricing of earnings components vary considerably across the categories included in the model. For example, the base case firms (microcap, loss‐making, resource companies that pay no contemporan...

Asymmetric Market Reactions of Growth and Value Firms with Management Earnings Forecasts

We study the market reaction of Australian firms issuing management earnings forecasts (MEF). Specifically, we measure and distinguish between the immediate and post-earnings announcement impact of MEF. Our analysis is conditioned on growth/value characteristics and news surprise and we test for asymmetric effects on these two conditioning variables. We find that the 3-day returns following non-routine bad news forecasts are significantly more negative for growth firms than value firms. No significant differences are found for good news forecasts. In the post-earnings announcement period, both growth and value firms have significant negative post-earnings announcement drift following non-routine bad news forecasts but they are not significantly different from each other.

The effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short-window share market response to management earnings forecasts

Purpose - This study aims to test the effects of forecast specificity on the asymmetric short-window share market response to management earnings forecasts (MEF). Design/methodology/approach - The paper examines a large sample of hand-checked Australian data over the period 1994 to 2001. Using an analyst news benchmark, it estimates a series of regressions to investigate whether the short-term impact from bad news announcements is greater in magnitude than from good news announcements and whether this differs between routine and non-routine MEFs. Additionally, it examines whether (after controlling for news content of MEF) there is a differential market impact conditional on specificity: minimum versus maximum versus range versus point. Findings - The results indicate that an asymmetric response is evident for the overall sample and a sub-set of non-routine forecasts. Contrary to predictions, the results show that forecast specificity, minimum, maximum, range and point MEFs make no additional contribution to the differences in the market reaction to bad or good news. Originality/value - The study extends the research investigating the short-run market impact of MEFs. The main element of innovation derives from the interaction between specificity and news content, as well as distinguishing between routine versus non-routine cases. Notably, it found little support for the view that more specific forecasts elicit greater market responses. What the results do suggest is that managers appear to choose the form of the forecast to suit the news being delivered. In particular, bad news delivered in a minimum forecast seems to be ignored by the market.

Is the Graph Discrepancy Index (GDI) a Robust Measure

The Graph Discrepancy Index (GDI), which originates from the lie factor introduced by Tufte (1983), is the mechanism commonly used in the financial graphics literature to determine whether graphs are distorted and to quantify the extent of such distortion. Whilst the GDI is critical to the financial graphics literature, little or no attention has been paid to its robustness and accuracy. We examine the mathematical characteristics of the GDI and show that it is inconsistent as a measure of graph distortion. We present a number of cases to demonstrate this inconsistency and show that in many instances the GDI values calculated are not particularly meaningful. We develop and present an alternative measure referred to as the Relative Graph Discrepancy (RGD). Numerous simulations suggest that the RGD overcomes the problems associated with the GDI. The RGD is also tested on data presented in earlier research and the results are compared to those obtained using the GDI. Overall in comparison with the GDI the RGD appears to be more theoretically robust and produces stronger results.