Alan S. Perelson

HIV-1 dynamics in vivo: Virion clearance rate, infected cell life-span, and viral generation time

A new mathematical model was used to analyze a detailed set of human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) viral load data collected from five infected individuals after the administration of a potent inhibitor of HIV-1 protease. Productively infected cells were estimated to have, on average, a life-span of 2.2 days (half-life t1/2 = 1.6 days), and plasma virions were estimated to have a mean life-span of 0.3 days (t1/2 = 0.24 days). The estimated average total HIV-1 production was 10.3 × 109 virions per day, which is substantially greater than previous minimum estimates. The results also suggest that the minimum duration of the HIV-1 life cycle in vivo is 1.2 days on average, and that the average HIV-1 generation time—defined as the time from release of a virion until it infects another cell and causes the release of a new generation of viral particles—is 2.6 days. These findings on viral dynamics provide not only a kinetic picture of HIV-1 pathogenesis, but also theoretical principles to guide the development of treatment strategies.

Self-nonself discrimination in a computer

The problem of protecting computer systems can be viewed generally as the problem of learning to distinguish self from other. The authors describe a method for change detection which is based on the generation of T cells in the immune system. Mathematical analysis reveals computational costs of the system, and preliminary experiments illustrate how the method might be applied to the problem of computer viruses.<<ETX>>

Identification and characterization of transmitted and early founder virus envelopes in primary HIV-1 infection

The precise identification of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) responsible for productive clinical infection could be instrumental in elucidating the molecular basis of HIV-1 transmission and in designing effective vaccines. Here, we developed a mathematical model of random viral evolution and, together with phylogenetic tree construction, used it to analyze 3,449 complete env sequences derived by single genome amplification from 102 subjects with acute HIV-1 (clade B) infection. Viral env genes evolving from individual transmitted or founder viruses generally exhibited a Poisson distribution of mutations and star-like phylogeny, which coalesced to an inferred consensus sequence at or near the estimated time of virus transmission. Overall, 78 of 102 subjects had evidence of productive clinical infection by a single virus, and 24 others had evidence of productive clinical infection by a minimum of two to five viruses. Phenotypic analysis of transmitted or early founder Envs revealed a consistent pattern of CCR5 dependence, masking of coreceptor binding regions, and equivalent or modestly enhanced resistance to the fusion inhibitor T1249 and broadly neutralizing antibodies compared with Envs from chronically infected subjects. Low multiplicity infection and limited viral evolution preceding peak viremia suggest a finite window of potential vulnerability of HIV-1 to vaccine-elicited immune responses, although phenotypic properties of transmitted Envs pose a formidable defense.

Mathematical Analysis of HIV-1 Dynamics in Vivo

Mathematical models have proven valuable in understanding the dynamics of HIV-1 infection in vivo. By comparing these models to data obtained from patients undergoing antiretroviral drug therapy, it has been possible to determine many quantitative features of the interaction between HIV-1, the virus that causes AIDS, and the cells that are infected by the virus. The most dramatic finding has been that even though AIDS is a disease that occurs on a time scale of about 10 years, there are very rapid dynamical processes that occur on time scales of hours to days, as well as slower processes that occur on time scales of weeks to months. We show how dynamical modeling and parameter estimation techniques have uncovered these important features of HIV pathogenesis and impacted the way in which AIDS patients are treated with potent antiretroviral drugs.

The immune system, adaptation, and machine learning

Abstract The immune system is capable of learning, memory, and pattern recognition. By employing genetic operators on a time scale fast enough to observe experimentally, the immune system is able to recognize novel shapes without preprogramming. Here we describe a dynamical model for the immune system that is based on the network hypothesis of Jerne, and is simple enough to simulate on a computer. This model has a strong similarity to an approach to learning and artificial intelligence introduced by Holland, called the classifier system. We demonstrate that simple versions of the classifier system can be cast as a nonlinear dynamical system, and explore the analogy between the immune and classifier systems in detail. Through this comparison we hope to gain insight into the way they perform specific tasks, and to suggest new approaches that might be of value in learning systems.

Quantifying residual HIV-1 replication in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND In patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), combination antiretroviral therapy can result in sustained suppression of plasma levels of the virus. However, replication-competent virus can still be recovered from latently infected resting memory CD4 lymphocytes; this finding raises serious doubts about whether antiviral treatment can eradicate HIV-1. METHODS We looked for evidence of residual HIV-1 replication in eight patients who began treatment soon after infection and in whom plasma levels of HIV-1 RNA were undetectable after two to three years of antiretroviral therapy. We examined whether there had been changes over time in HIV-1 proviral sequences in peripheral-blood mononuclear cells, which would indicate residual viral replication. We also performed in situ hybridization studies on tissues from one patient to identify cells actively expressing HIV-1 RNA. We estimated the rate of decrease of latent, replication-competent HIV-1 in resting CD4 lymphocytes on the basis of the decrease in the numbers of proviral sequences identified during primary infection and direct sequential measurements of the size of the latent reservoir. RESULTS Six of the eight patients had no significant variations in proviral sequences during treatment. However, in two patients there was sequence evolution but no evidence of drug-resistant viral genotypes. In one patient, extensive in situ studies provided additional evidence of persistent viral replication in lymphoid tissues. Using two independent approaches, we estimated that the half-life of the latent, replication-competent virus in resting CD4 lymphocytes was approximately six months. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that combination antiretroviral regimens suppress HIV-1 replication in some but not all patients. Given the half-life of latently infected CD4 lymphocytes of about six months, it may require many years of effective antiretroviral treatment to eliminate this reservoir of HIV-1.

Modelling viral and immune system dynamics.

During the past 6 years, there have been substantial advances in our understanding of human immunodeficiency virus 1 and other viruses, such as hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus, that cause chronic infection. The use of mathematical modelling to interpret experimental results has made a significant contribution to this field. Mathematical modelling is also improving our understanding of T-cell dynamics and the quantitative events that underlie the immune response to pathogens.

PERSISTENCE OF HIV-1 TRANSCRIPTION IN PERIPHERAL-BLOOD MONONUCLEAR CELLS IN PATIENTS RECEIVING POTENT ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY

BACKGROUND AND METHODS Although potent antiretroviral therapy can control infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), a long-lived reservoir of infectious virus persists in CD4+ T cells. We investigated this viral reservoir by measuring the levels of cell-associated viral DNA and messenger RNA (mRNA) that are essential for HIV-1 replication. Approximately every 6 months, we obtained samples of peripheral-blood mononuclear cells from five men with long-standing HIV-1 infection who had had undetectable levels of plasma HIV-1 RNA for 20 months or more during treatment with potent antiretroviral drugs. RESULTS Before treatment, plasma levels of HIV-1 RNA correlated with the levels of cell-associated unintegrated HIV-1 DNA and unspliced viral mRNA. After treatment, plasma levels of HIV-1 RNA fell by more than 2.7 log to undetectable levels. The decrease in cell-associated integrated and unintegrated HIV-1 DNA and mRNA occurred in two phases. The first phase occurred during the initial 500 days of treatment and was characterized by substantial decreases in the levels of DNA and mRNA, but not to undetectable levels. The concentrations of cell-associated unintegrated viral DNA, integrated proviral DNA, and unspliced viral mRNA decreased by 1.25 to 1.46 log. The second phase occurred during the subsequent 300 days or more of treatment and was characterized by a plateau in the levels of HIV-1 DNA and unspliced mRNA. After an initial rapid decline, the ratio of unspliced to multiply spliced viral mRNA (a measure of active viral transcription) stabilized and remained greater than zero at each measurement. CONCLUSIONS Despite treatment with potent antiretroviral drugs and the suppression of plasma HIV-1 RNA to undetectable levels for 20 months or more, HIV-1 transcription persists in peripheral-blood mononuclear cells. Unless the quasi-steady state levels of HIV DNA and mRNA eventually disappear with longer periods of therapy, these findings suggest that HIV-1 infection cannot be eradicated with current treatments.

Dynamics of HIV infection of CD4 T cells

We examine a model for the interaction of HIV with CD4+ T cells that considers four populations: uninfected T cells, latently infected T cells, actively infected T cells, and free virus. Using this model we show that many of the puzzling quantitative features of HIV infection can be explained simply. We also consider effects of AZT on viral growth and T-cell population dynamics. The model exhibits two steady states, an uninfected state in which no virus is present and an endemically infected state, in which virus and infected T cells are present. We show that if N, the number of infectious virions produced per actively infected T cell, is less a critical value, Ncrit, then the uninfected state is the only steady state in the nonnegative orthant, and this state is stable. For N > Ncrit, the uninfected state is unstable, and the endemically infected state can be either stable, or unstable and surrounded by a stable limit cycle. Using numerical bifurcation techniques we map out the parameter regimes of these various behaviors. oscillatory behavior seems to lie outside the region of biologically realistic parameter values. When the endemically infected state is stable, it is characterized by a reduced number of T cells compared with the uninfected state. Thus T-cell depletion occurs through the establishment of a new steady state. The dynamics of the establishment of this new steady state are examined both numerically and via the quasi-steady-state approximation. We develop approximations for the dynamics at early times in which the free virus rapidly binds to T cells, during an intermediate time scale in which the virus grows exponentially, and a third time scale on which viral growth slows and the endemically infected steady state is approached. Using the quasi-steady-state approximation the model can be simplified to two ordinary differential equations the summarize much of the dynamical behavior. We compute the level of T cells in the endemically infected state and show how that level varies with the parameters in the model. The model predicts that different viral strains, characterized by generating differing numbers of infective virions within infected T cells, can cause different amounts of T-cell depletion and generate depletion at different rates. Two versions of the model are studied. In one the source of T cells from precursors is constant, whereas in the other the source of T cells decreases with viral load, mimicking the infection and killing of T-cell precursors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Genetic identity, biological phenotype, and evolutionary pathways of transmitted/founder viruses in acute and early HIV-1 infection.

Identification of full-length transmitted HIV-1 genomes could be instrumental in HIV-1 pathogenesis, microbicide, and vaccine research by enabling the direct analysis of those viruses actually responsible for productive clinical infection. We show in 12 acutely infected subjects (9 clade B and 3 clade C) that complete HIV-1 genomes of transmitted/founder viruses can be inferred by single genome amplification and sequencing of plasma virion RNA. This allowed for the molecular cloning and biological analysis of transmitted/founder viruses and a comprehensive genome-wide assessment of the genetic imprint left on the evolving virus quasispecies by a composite of host selection pressures. Transmitted viruses encoded intact canonical genes (gag-pol-vif-vpr-tat-rev-vpu-env-nef) and replicated efficiently in primary human CD4+ T lymphocytes but much less so in monocyte-derived macrophages. Transmitted viruses were CD4 and CCR5 tropic and demonstrated concealment of coreceptor binding surfaces of the envelope bridging sheet and variable loop 3. 2 mo after infection, transmitted/founder viruses in three subjects were nearly completely replaced by viruses differing at two to five highly selected genomic loci; by 12–20 mo, viruses exhibited concentrated mutations at 17–34 discrete locations. These findings reveal viral properties associated with mucosal HIV-1 transmission and a limited set of rapidly evolving adaptive mutations driven primarily, but not exclusively, by early cytotoxic T cell responses.