Alan Siaroff

Comparative presidencies: The inadequacy of the presidential, semi-presidential and parliamentary distinction

Abstract. The role of the president is presumed to vary amongst presidential, semi-presidential and parliamentary systems. However, there are a variety of subtypes within semi-presidential systems. Debate often hinges on the prime minister and government, and to whom they are more accountable. However, the accountability of prime ministers and governments to presidents can be rather ‘fuzzy’. This article looks through the prism of the president rather than that of the government. After examining definitions of presidential, parliamentary and semi-presidential systems, several dispositional categories of political regimes will be established. Then presidential power will be assessed through a series of dichotomous measures, and for all electoral democracies with a president. Finally, the character of each category will be assessed. The concept of ‘semi-presidentialism’ is rejected in favour of more meaningful labels: presidential systems, parliamentary systems with presidential dominance, parliamentary systems with a presidential corrective and parliamentary systems with figurehead presidents.

Parliamentary Election Turnout in Europe since 1990

This article examines the cross-national variations in turnout for parliamentary elections in Europe since 1990 – a continent with a vast range in turnout levels and some clear subregional patterns, especially that of low turnout in East-Central Europe. A full range of socio-economic, mobilizational, party system, institutional, and contextual factors are examined for bivariate relationships with turnout. A multivariate model then indicates that cross-national turnout is higher where there is strictly enforced compulsory voting, in polarized two-party systems and countries with a high level of party membership, and where there are no relevant elected presidents or strong regional governments. Variances on these and other key factors are what accounts for the subregional pattern of East-Central Europe and the highest turnout case of Malta; however, Switzerland is confirmed to be a significant national dummy variable.

The mirror has broken: Increasing divergence between national and land elections in Austria

Austrian party politics has involved increasing dissimilarity between national and Lander voting, with the OVP now doing much better in Land elections than in national elections, and the SPO showing a reverse pattern. This analysis measures dissimilarity and related values both over time and across the Lander. It is shown that there have been three phases in terms of overall dissimilarity. Moreover, the nine Lander are grouped into four clusters based on the national‐Lander variations in voting for each of the two major parties. Such variations are best explained by the more decentralised organisation of the OVP.

Democratic Breakdown and Democratic Stability: A Comparison of Interwar Estonia and Finland

Two of the new states of interwar Europe were Estonia and Finland. Both arose out of the Russian Empire and both were literate, Protestant nations. Yet democracy broke down in Estonia but survived in Finland. These outcomes would seem ironic, given that Finnish independence involved a brutal civil war and Finland was linguistically divided—factors not present in Estonia. This study, however, examines not just the nature of independence but also the constitutional structures, party politics and regime crises of these two neighbouring cases. In terms of the factors commonly cited as favouring stable democracy, the Estonian-Finnish contrast shows the particular explanatory importance of political culture, the speed of democratization, the views of elites and the nature of the party system. What happened in Finland also implies that a presidential, or at least a balanced semipresidential, system cannot be considered as inherently dangerous for democratic stability.

British AMS versus German ‘Personalised PR’: Not so different

Alan Siaroff compares party proportionality under the German Additional Member voting system with a similar system used to elect the Scottish Parliament and Welsh National Assembly.

The Kingmaker Is Dead, Long Live The Kingmaker: Examining The Degree Of Influence Of Small Parties In The Coalition-Formation Process In Germany

This article examines the role of small parties in the German party system. It thus attempts to make a contribution to a largely under-researched topic in the existing literature. The goal is to determine the influence and ultimately the pivotal role of small parties over time both federally and in each Land (1949–2010). For that purpose we develop a five-point ‘opportunity structure’ scale. During the heyday of West Germanys two-and-a-half-party system (from the early 1960s to the early 1980s) the FDP was not just the main small party but the pivotal kingmaker at least federally, deciding which of the major parties (CDU/CSU or SPD) would be in government. Since then the Greens and later the PDS/die Linke have also become durable small parties and play an important role in the government formation process. The analysis shows that based on our measure the Greens have at least equalled if not surpassed the FDP as the countrys most influential small party since they emerged on the political scene in the early 1980s.