Alan Trickett

Are repeatedly victimized households different

Much recent victimization research has concentrated on predicting who will be victimized, with relatively little concern for the number of events suffered. This study turns to the latter issue by focusing attention on the prediction of repeat victimization. A statistical methodology is employed which allows for the explicit recognition that an initial victimization must occur prior to any repeat event. When applied to property crime information from the 1984 British Crime Survey, we find little evidence that repeat victims have distinctive characteristics compared with single victims. Nevertheless, households with characteristics which protect from victimization, in the sense of giving rise to a low initial risk, have this protection reduced for a subsequent event. Moreover, comparing two households with different risk characteristics, their repeat victimization probabilities are more similar than were those for the initial occurrence.

Area Characteristics and Regional Variates as Determinants of Area Property Crime Levels

This article seeks to examine the area characteristics that act as determinants of area property crime levels, namely, incidence and prevalence. The crime figures are extracted from the 1984 British Crime Survey. Area characteristics are taken from the 1981 UK census. Initial exploratory analysis considers the non-Gaussian nature of the crime data, the statistical implications of this, and the transformations used to overcome these problems. In addition, possible regional and inner-city/non-inner-city variations are considered. The later stages move from simple individual correlations to multiple regression models. Three regression models are considered and the reasons for refining these are explored, with the results indicating that both area characteristics and regional influences play a role as determinants of the area crime level. In particular, population density and the area population age profile have significant roles to play. The conclusions support the recent revival of the application of ecological concepts in the analysis of crime levels.

Property Crime Victimisation: The Roles of Individual and Area Influences:

The likelihood of being a victim of property crime is modelled using the characteristics of the individual household and of the area. In addition to total property crime, we separately consider the components of burglary, theft and criminal damage. In all cases, both area and individual variables are significant predictors of victimisation risk, but the area is generally more important than the individual. We also find that an unexplained correlation remains between households within the same area. To caricature our overall results, young professionals living in detached or semi-detached houses in poor areas are particularly likely to fall victim to crime.

The Evolution of Helicopter Technology, 1940–1986

The evolution of helicopter technology was analysed by means of the characteristics of helicopter models introduced in the period 1940–1986. An improvement took place in some dimensions of performance while others changed little. By analysing the distribution of the models with respect to the technological frontier it was found that the technology could be divided into a core, where the majority of the models are located, and some specialised niches. The core is the region of highest density, relatively far from the frontier, while the niches are generally closer to the frontier and have a low model density. In the core of the technology a dominant design, characterised by two turboshaft engines and one rotor, has emerged, while a greater variety of approaches exists in the niches. The changing model density bctween the core and the niches was related to the different types of competition prevailing in the two regions of characteristics space. The higher density in the core implied a greater similarity of...

The distribution of crime victimisation in the population

This paper addresses the question of how best to determine the appropriate theoretical model for explaining the frequency distribution typically observed in self-report crime victimisation surveys of general adult household populations. The contemporary, prevailing approach is characterised as a ‘double-hurdle model’ of exposure to victimisation risk mat focuses, separately, upon the transition initially from a non-victim to a victim state (the ‘lifestyle-exposure’ hypothesis), and thence upon the transition to a subsequent, specific level of risk (the ‘repeat victimisation hypothesis’). An alternative model — the ‘immunity hypothesis’ — is proposed with the aim of addressing some of the theoretical and empirical difficulties identified in the current approach. This model takes the form of a compound-Poisson generalisation of the Negative Binomial statistical distribution. Its chief difference from the current approach is its assumption of a general tendency in the population towards ‘immunity from’ rather than ‘exposure to’ crime victimisation risk. An outflow table of data on household property crime victimisation from a longitudinal panel survey is analysed. The results provide support for the hypotheses derived from the immunity model.