Alasdair M. Goodwill

The development of a filter model for prioritising suspects in burglary offences

Abstract This paper discusses the development of a filter model for prioritizing possible links in dwelling burglary. The filters utilize the central aspects of crime scene information that is available and accessible to investigators in burglary, namely geo-spatial, temporal, behavioural, and dwelling information. The proposed filters were analysed using a sample of 215 dwelling burglaries committed by 43 serial burglars (i.e. 5 offences each) in order to determine the sequence in which the filters should be considered in prioritizing possible linked offences. The results indicated that the following order (i.e. better performance to worse performance) was most effective at linking offences, utilizing: (1) geo-spatial information, (2) temporal aspects, (3) behavioural information and, lastly, (4) dwelling characteristics. Specifically, the results indicated that offences in close proximity to one another should be given priority. Further, any offence occurring within a 28-day span before or after the index offence should be given priority. The paper argues that behavioural and dwelling characteristics are less effective for linking than geo-spatial and temporal information because the former two aspects are influenced significantly by situational and contextual cues on offender decision-making.

Pragmatic solutions to offender profiling and behavioural investigative advice

This paper outlines a brief history of the evolutionary trajectory of offender profiling and illustrates the three broad strands (investigative, clinical, and statistical) that emerged in the 1970s–1990s. We then indicate how a more pragmatic, interdisciplinary practitioner–academic model has emerged in recent years and go on to describe the range of contributions that are now made across the criminal justice field. More recently termed ‘behavioural investigative advice’ in the UK, the paper then argues that whilst a range of potential contributions exist (from linking crimes, risk assessment, provision of bad character evidence, investigative interviewing advice, to geoprofiling), the nature of the process by which that contribution occurs is not yet well understood. The review of these potential contributions concludes with several suggestions and recommendations for further research and relevant methodologies by which to conduct that research. This includes the requirement to combine conceptual and theory-driven models alongside empirically driven statistical approaches, as well as the requirement to more precisely delineate and describe how contributions are made by behavioural experts through cognitive task analyses and associated methods.

Examining the Influence of Denial, Motivation, and Risk on Sexual Recidivism

This study examined the relationship between denial, motivation, static risk (Risk Matrix 2000), and sexual recidivism. Denial was measured in three ways: A Denial Index (resulting from the combination of several measures of different aspects of denial), Absolute Denial, and Denial of Risk. Motivation for treatment was also examined. Logistic regression analyses in a sample of 180 sex offenders using a fixed 10-year follow-up found that risk moderated the relationships between the Denial Index, Absolute Denial, and sexual recidivism. In particular, among high-risk offenders, denial predicted decreased sexual recidivism. An opposite pattern was observed for the low-risk offenders who were in denial, although these differences were not significant. In terms of Denial of Risk, those who were denying they presented a future risk for offending (i.e., higher on Denial of Risk) were less likely to reoffend than those who reported seeing themselves as presenting a high risk. Motivation for treatment was positively correlated with recidivism, but the effect disappeared once static risk was controlled.

An examination of the relationship between childhood emotional abuse and borderline personality disorder features: The role of difficulties with emotion regulation

Childhood abuse has been consistently linked with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and recent studies suggest that some forms of childhood abuse might be uniquely related to both BPD and BPD features. In addition, difficulties with emotion regulation have been found to be associated with childhood abuse, BPD, as well as BPD features. The present study examined (1) whether frequency of childhood emotional abuse is uniquely associated with BPD feature severity when controlling for other forms of childhood abuse and (2) whether difficulties with emotion regulation accounts for the relationship between childhood emotional abuse and BPD feature severity. A sample of undergraduates (n=243) completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire - Short Form, Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale, and Borderline Symptom List-23. Multiple regression analyses and Structural Equation Modeling were conducted. Results indicated that frequency of childhood emotional abuse (and not sexual or physical abuse) was uniquely associated with BPD feature severity. In addition, while there was no direct path between childhood emotional abuse, childhood physical abuse, or childhood sexual abuse and BPD features, there was an indirect relationship between childhood emotional abuse and BPD features through difficulties with emotion regulation. These findings suggest that, of the different forms of childhood abuse, emotional abuse specifically, may have a developmental role in BPD pathology. Prevention and treatment of BPD pathology might benefit from the provision of emotion regulation strategies.

The Academic and the Practitioner: Pragmatists' Views of Offender Profiling.

Pragmatic psychology,as outlined by D. Fishman (1999), serves as the inspiration for this article’s recommendation to integrate the currently opposing factions within offender profiling. These factions have variously been referred to as “inductive/ deductive,” “statistical/clinical,” or “academic/practitioner” approaches. This article outlines how the separation into different factions is both misrepresentative and needlessly divisive and thus undermines the potential contribution of behavioral science to the investigative endeavor. Through a case study, the article illustrates how a pragmatist’s approach would encourage a more productive and synergistic dialogue between the camps. This, in turn, may lead to the creation of a useful and productive archive that would facilitate the professionalization of what has too often seemed an ill-formed forensic discipline. Recent practical and academic concerns have emerged both in the United States (Prentky & Burgess, 2000) and in the United Kingdom (Association of Chief Police Officers [ACPO], 2000) in relation to the type of advice given by a range of individuals claiming some expertise in “offender profiling.” Despite these developments, recent legal concerns (Ormerod, 1999) and concerns over the lack of ethical guidelines for profilers (Alison & Canter, 1999a) suggest that there is an urgent need to formulate detailed ethical, professional, and practical guidelines for both the construction, evaluation, and implementation of psychological advice to police investigations. This article outlines how a proposed synergy of the kind recommended in the therapeutic arena by Fishman (2000) between academics and practitioners may be of direct relevance to the field of profiling. Fishman refers to this synergy as pragmatic psychology, in which he calls for “the development of databases of systematic, rigorous, solution-focused case studies of human service programs of all types” (Fishman, 2000, p. 1). Although still in the embryonic stage, Fishman’s approach has been preceded and influenced by various incarnations of philosophical pragmatism, exemplified in the works of Toulmin (1958), Rorty (1991),

What works in offender profiling? A comparison of typological, thematic, and multivariate models

Utilizing a sample of 85 stranger rapists, three models (Hazelwoods (1987) Power and Anger FBI model, the Behavioral Thematic evaluation of Canter, Bennell, Alison, and Reddy (2003), and the Massachusetts Treatment Center: Rape classification system revision 3 (MTC:R3, Knight & Prentky, 1990)) were contrasted with a multivariate regression approach to assess their ability to predict an offenders previous convictions from crime scene information. In respect of the three aforementioned models, logistic regression and AUC analysis indicated that the Power and Anger FBI model was the most effective, followed by the MTC:R3, and then the Behavioral Thematic evaluation. However, predictive analyses based on a multivariate approach using a mixture of crime scene behaviors, as opposed to the grouping of behaviors into themes or types as in the three models, far exceeded the predictive ability of the three models under AUC analysis. The results suggest that emphasis should be placed on further exploration of the predictive validity of each of the individual behaviors that comprise existing thematic, typological, and multivariate classification systems, especially those that are subject to inter-situational variation.

Sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance attack patterns from home in serial murder, rape and burglary

Abstract Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offenders consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.

Summary cortisol reactivity indicators: Interrelations and meaning

Research on the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis has involved a proliferation of cortisol indices. We surveyed recently published HPA-related articles and identified 15 such indices. We sought to clarify their biometric properties, specifically, how they interrelate and what they mean, because such information is rarely offered in the articles themselves. In the present article, the primary samples consist of community mothers and their infants (N = 297), who participated in two challenges, the Toy Frustration Paradigm and the Strange Situation Procedure. We sought to cross-validate findings from each of these samples against the other, and also against a clinically depressed sample (N = 48) and a sample of healthy older adults (N = 51) who participated in the Trier Social Stress Test. Cortisol was collected from all participants once before and twice after the challenges. These heterogenous samples were chosen to obtain the greatest possible range in cortisol levels and stress response regulation. Using these data, we computed the 15 summary cortisol indices identified in our literature survey. We assessed inter-relations amongst indices and determined their underlying dimensions via principal component analysis (PCA). The PCAs consistently extracted two components, accounting for 79%–93% of the variance. These components represent “total cortisol production” and “change in cortisol levels.” The components were highly congruent across challenge, time, and sample. High variable loadings and explained factor variance suggest that all indices represent their underlying dimensions very well. Thus the abundance of summary cortisol indices currently represented in the literature appears superfluous.

Comparing Recidivism Rates of Treatment Responders/Nonresponders in a Sample of 413 Child Molesters Who Had Completed Community-Based Sex Offender Treatment in the United Kingdom

Analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed a U.K. probation-based sex offender treatment program was carried out to assess (a) the effectiveness of therapy in the short term and (b) the longer term implications of treatment in relation to sexual recidivism. It was found that 12% (51 offenders) of the sample had recidivated within 2 to 4 years. Of these recidivists, 86% (44 offenders) had been reconvicted for a sexually related offense. One hundred thirty-five offenders (33%) demonstrated a treated profile (i.e., demonstrated no offense-specific problems and few, or no, socioaffective problems at the posttreatment stage). This group was compared with a sample of offenders deemed as not responding to treatment, matched by their levels of pretreatment risk/need. It was found that a significantly smaller proportion (n = 12, 9%) of treatment responders had recidivated, compared to the treatment nonresponders (n = 20, 15%), indicating a 40% reduction in recidivism in those who had responded to treatment (effect size = .18). Matching length of treatment to the offenders’ level of pretreatment risk/need (i.e., higher risk/treatment-need offenders typically undertook longer treatment) reduced the rate of recidivism among this group to the level of recidivism observed among the lower risk/need offenders.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.