Alastair Bailey

The development, regulation and use of biopesticides for integrated pest management.

Over the past 50 years, crop protection has relied heavily on synthetic chemical pesticides, but their availability is now declining as a result of new legislation and the evolution of resistance in pest populations. Therefore, alternative pest management tactics are needed. Biopesticides are pest management agents based on living micro-organisms or natural products. They have proven potential for pest management and they are being used across the world. However, they are regulated by systems designed originally for chemical pesticides that have created market entry barriers by imposing burdensome costs on the biopesticide industry. There are also significant technical barriers to making biopesticides more effective. In the European Union, a greater emphasis on Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as part of agricultural policy may lead to innovations in the way that biopesticides are regulated. There are also new opportunities for developing biopesticides in IPM by combining ecological science with post-genomics technologies. The new biopesticide products that will result from this research will bring with them new regulatory and economic challenges that must be addressed through joint working between social and natural scientists, policy makers and industry.

Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

Biopesticides: pest management and regulation.

Biological controls that utilize natural predation, parasitism or other natural mechanisms, is an environmentally friendly alternative to chemical pesticides. Chemical pesticide methods are becoming less readily available due to increasing resistance problems and the prohibition of some substances. This book addresses the challenges of insufficient information and imperfectly understood regulatory processes in using biopesticides. It takes an interdisciplinary approach providing internationally comparative analyses on the registration of biopesticides and debates future biopesticide practices.

Integrated pest management portfolios in UK arable farming: results of a farmer survey.

BACKGROUND Farmers are faced with a wide range of pest management (PM) options that can be adopted in isolation or alongside complementary or substitute strategies. This paper presents the results of a survey of UK cereal producers, focusing on the character and diversity of PM strategies currently used by, or available to, farmers. In addition, the survey asked various questions pertaining to agricultural policy participation, attitude towards environmental issues, sources of PM advice and information and the important characteristics of PM technologies. RESULTS The results indicate that many farmers do make use of a suite of PM techniques, and that their choice of integrated PM (IPM) portfolio appears to be jointly dictated by farm characteristics and government policy. Results also indicate that portfolio choice does affect the number of subsequent insecticide applications per crop. CONCLUSIONS These results help to identify the type of IPM portfolios considered to be adoptable by farmers and highlight the importance of substitution in IPM portfolios. As such, these results will help to direct R&D effort towards the realisation of more sustainable PM approaches and aid the identification of potential portfolio adopters. These findings highlight the opportunity that a revised agri-environmental policy design could generate in terms of enhancing coherent IPM portfolio adoption.

Bayesian Estimation of Willingness-to-Pay where Respondents Mis-Report Their Preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

The International Competitiveness of Hungarian Agriculture: Past Performance and Future Projections

The past and future international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture is assessed by calculating domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios using data for 2000–02 as a base. Future international competitiveness is estimated for 2007 and 2013 under three scenarios: baseline (no accession), accession with historical rates of productivity growth and accession with dynamic improvements in productivity. Predicted price changes were generated by a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which was applied to quantify the implications of the 2004 EU accession. The analysis indicates that accession will have a negative impact on the international competitiveness of Hungarian agriculture by increasing land and labour prices. To maintain competitiveness in the arable sector, Hungary will need to achieve dynamic improvements in productivity to offset the effect of higher factor costs. The dairy sector, under all scenarios, is likely to remain internationally uncompetitive.

Stochastic biases in technical change in South African agriculture.

This paper examines biased technical change in South African agriculture using a system of share equations with unobserved components. Developing on the work of Lambert and Shonkwiler (1995), this paper generalises previous work by introducing independent unobserved components into each model using a regression-based approach. We find evidence of stochastic technical change, which is itself biased between the four factors of production: machinery, land, labour and fertiliser, and which closely reflects distinct phases of South African agricultural policy and development.

Roles of Small and Semi‐subsistence Farms in the EU

Small and semi-subsistence farms (SSFs) in the EU play a number of socio-economic roles. They maintain rural welfare, keep rural areas populated, contribute to the rural non-farm economy, and provide environmental public goods such as attractive landscapes. Particularly in the New Member States and in the poorer regions of the Southern EU-15, one of the most important roles of small and SSFs is supporting social and economic welfare, by acting as a ‘safety net’ for poor families. The disappearance of small and SSFs would often mean increased poverty, losses to the rural non-farm economy, and depopulation, especially in remote areas, and might result in environmental loss. Variation in the importance of small and SSFs across the rural areas in Europe and the complex reality in which small and SSFs are not the only suppliers of ‘joint products’, explain some of the difficulties of designing EU policy for small and SSFs. What appears to be clear is that small farms and SSFs do produce a range of public goods for which, arguably, compensation is justified, and the case for support on welfare grounds is strong. However, the ability of the Common Agricultural Policy budget and its mechanisms to provide effective compensation for the provision of public goods is a matter of some debate.

Modifying willingness to pay estimates where respondents mis-report their preferences

The likelihood for the Logit model is modified, so as to take account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in stated preference experiments estimating willingness to pay (WTP). Monte Carlo results demonstrate the bias imparted to estimates where there is mis-reporting. The approach is applied to a data set examining consumer preferences for food produced employing a nonpesticide technology. Our modified approach leads to WTP that are substantially downwardly revised.

Analysis of the Vocational and Residential Preferences of a Rural Population: Application of an Experimental Technique to Rural Slovenia

Abstract This study applies choice experiments to the analysis of the relative importance of both monetary and non-monetary determinants of vocational choice and spatial labour supply. It identifies the determinants of individuals’ choice of jobs and places of residence, and provides a better understanding of how rural labour adjustments might be managed in a country in transition. The results indicate that while wages are the most important factor influencing employment choice, other determinants affecting working conditions and residence do have a counterbalancing impact on choice. Results suggest that sample respondents do appear to be relatively immobile between sectors and also in terms of migration and commuting. However, our results do identify a range of non-wage determinants that might be used to stimulate mobility.