Albert J. Allen

The Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on Agricultural Exports of Developing Countries

Abstract This paper examines the impact of exchange rate and its volatility on the Turkish agricultural exports in the framework of error-correction model. The error correction model results indicate that except a few countries, the exchange rate and its variability do not have significant impact on Turkish exports of dried figs, grapes and tobacco. Thus, policies designed to increase the export level of Turkish agricultural products by incorporating weak Turkish lira against other currencies are not likely to be effective. The policy makers, therefore, should take into account the ineffectiveness of exchange rate on stimulating agricultural exports in their new policy designs.

Exchange Rates Impacts on Agricultural Inputs Prices Using VAR

The effects of the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus the Mexican peso are evaluated for four traded nonfarm-produced inputs (fertilizer, chemicals, farm machinery, and feed) in the U.S. Unit root tests suggest that the exchange rate and the four input price ratios support the presence of unit roots with a trend model but the presence unit roots can be rejected in the first difference model. This result is consistent with a fixed price/flex price conceptual framework, with industrial prices more likely to be unresponsive to the exchange rate than farm commodity prices.