Albert Jan van Hoek

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease in England: a cross-sectional study

A cross sectional study by Stefan Flasche and coworkers document the serotype replacement of Streptococcus pneumoniae that has occurred in England since the introduction of PCV7 vaccination.

Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation.

Decisions on how to mitigate an evolving pandemic are technically challenging. We present a real-time assessment of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative influenza A/H1N1v vaccination strategies. A transmission dynamic model was fitted to the estimated number of cases in real-time, and used to generate plausible autumn scenarios under different vaccination options. The proportion of these cases by age and risk group leading to primary care consultations, National Pandemic Flu Service consultations, emergency attendances, hospitalisations, intensive care and death was then estimated using existing data from the pandemic. The real-time model suggests that the epidemic will peak in early November, with the peak height being similar in magnitude to the summer wave. Vaccination of the high-risk groups is estimated to prevent about 45 deaths (80% credibility interval 26-67), and save around 2900 QALYs (80% credibility interval 1600-4500). Such a programme is very likely to be cost-effective if the cost of vaccine purchase itself is treated as a sunk cost. Extending vaccination to low-risk individuals is expected to result in more modest gains in deaths and QALYs averted. Extending vaccination to school-age children would be the most cost-effective extension. The early availability of vaccines is crucial in determining the impact of such extensions. There have been a considerable number of cases of H1N1v in England, and so the benefits of vaccination to mitigate the ongoing autumn wave are limited. However, certain groups appear to be at significantly higher risk of complications and deaths, and so it appears both effective and cost-effective to vaccinate them. The United Kingdom was the first country to have a major epidemic in Europe. In countries where the epidemic is not so far advanced vaccination of children may be cost-effective. Similar, detailed, real-time modelling and economic studies could help to clarify the situation.

The effect of underlying clinical conditions on the risk of developing invasive pneumococcal disease in England

OBJECTIVE To inform national policy making on the use of the 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine among risk groups we estimated the increased risk of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) outcomes among clinical risk groups. Three years of post 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) data was included to investigate the herd protection effects. METHODS Over 22,000 IPD patients in England (March 2002-March 2009 - aged 2 and over) were linked to their hospitalisation records. The prevalence of risk factors in these patients was compared to the prevalence of risk factors in the general population. RESULTS There was an increased odds ratio (OR) for hospitalisation (OR 11.7 2-15 years; 7.6 16-64; 2.7 65+) and death (OR 2.4 2-15 years, 3.9 16-64, 1.2 65+) from IPD among risk group. The most important risk factors that predict IPD are chronic liver disease, immunosuppression, and chronic respiratory diseases. Herd protection effects due to introduction of the 7-valent vaccine were identical in both patient groups as shown by the similar decline in the proportion of IPD caused by PCV7 serotypes in risk and non-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS There is a marked increased risk of IPD among those with certain clinical conditions, suggesting potential benefit from a targeted vaccination approach. However, the indirect protection from conjugate vaccination of children suggests PCV vaccination of high-risk groups may not provide substantial additional benefit once herd immunity takes effect.

Pneumococcal carriage in children and adults two years after introduction of the thirteen valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in England.

BACKGROUND/AIMS In April 2010 the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was replaced by the 13-valent PCV. We investigated pneumococcal carriage in children eligible for PCV7 or PCV13 and their household contacts. METHODS Eligible families in Hertfordshire and Gloucester were identified and a nasopharyngeal swab obtained from consenting household members between July 2012 and March 2013. Samples were cultured for Streptococcus pneumoniae and serotyped by standard methods. For each serotype the ratio of its prevalence in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) to its carriage prevalence (case:carrier ratio, CCR) was calculated. Results were compared with previous carriage studies in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009, before and after PCV7 introduction. RESULTS 217 households were included. Among <5-year olds 47.7% (95% confidence interval 41.8-53.5) were carrying a pneumococcus compared with 51.0% (95% CI: 44.0-58.0) in 2008/2009 and 48.4% (95% CI: 44.1-52.7) in 2001/2002. The odds of carrying a PCV7 serotype was significantly reduced in 2008/2009 (0.07, 95% CI: 0.03-0.16) and 2012/2013 (0.01 95% CI: 0.00-0.07) relative to 2001/2002, while the odds of carrying any of the extra six PCV13 serotypes increased after PCV7 introduction (1.38, 95%CI: 0.73-2.59) but declined significantly after PCV13 introduction (0.05, 95%CI: 0.01-0.37). The CCRs for the frequently carried serotypes were relatively low, with the highest CCR observed for serotypes 7F, 19A, 3, 8, and 33F. Across the three carriage studies, CCR estimates were stable for nearly all serotypes. CONCLUSION Carriage of additional PCV13 serotypes has rapidly reduced post-PCV13 introduction in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with a continued decline in transmission of PCV7 serotypes. Carriage rates in children remain unchanged, but the low CCRs of replacing serotypes would be expected to further reduce overall IPD across all age groups.

The burden of influenza in England by age and clinical risk group: a statistical analysis to inform vaccine policy.

OBJECTIVES To assess the burden of influenza by age and clinical status and use this to inform evaluations of the age and risk-based influenza vaccination policy in the United Kingdom. METHODS Weekly laboratory reports for influenza and 7 other respiratory pathogens were extracted from the national database and used in a regression model to estimate the proportion of acute respiratory illness outcomes attributable to each pathogen. RESULTS Influenza accounted for ∼10% of the attributed respiratory admissions and deaths in hospital. Healthy children under five had the highest influenza admission rate (1.9/1000). The presence of co-morbidities increased the admission rate by 5.7 fold for 5-14 year olds (from 0.1 to 0.56/1000), the relative risk declining to 1.8 fold in 65+ year olds (from 0.46 to 0.84/1000). The majority (72%) of influenza-attributable deaths in hospital occurred in 65+ year olds with co-morbidities. Mortality in children under 15 years was low with around 12 influenza-attributable deaths in hospital per year in England; the case fatality rate was substantially higher in risk than non-risk children. Infants under 6 months had the highest consultation and admission rates, around 70/1000 and 3/1000 respectively. CONCLUSIONS Additional strategies are needed to reduce the remaining morbidity and mortality in the high-risk and elderly populations, and to protect healthy children currently not offered the benefits of vaccination.

Modelling the impact of a combined varicella and zoster vaccination programme on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in England

This study updates previous work on modelling the incidence of varicella and Herpes Zoster (HZ) following the introduction of childhood vaccination. The updated model includes new data on age-specific contact patterns, as well as data on the efficacy of zoster vaccination in the elderly and allows for HZ among vaccinees. The current study also looks at two-dose varicella childhood programmes, and assesses the combined impact of varicella vaccination in childhood and zoster vaccination of the elderly. The results suggest that a two-dose schedule is likely to reduce the incidence of varicella to very low levels, provided first dose coverage is around 90% and second dose coverage is in excess of 70%. Single dose varicella vaccination programmes are expected to result in large numbers of breakthrough cases. Childhood vaccination is expected to increase the incidence of zoster for more than 40 years after introduction of the programme, the magnitude of this increase being influenced primarily by the duration of boosting following exposure to the varicella zoster virus. Though this increase in zoster incidence can be partly offset by vaccination of the elderly, the effectiveness of this combined strategy is limited, as much of the increase occurs in those adults too young to be vaccinated. Childhood vaccination at intermediate levels of coverage (70% and 60% for first and second dose coverage respectively) is expected to lead to an increase in adult varicella. At high coverage (90% and 80% coverage) this is unlikely to be the case. These results will be used to inform a cost-effectiveness analysis of combined varicella and zoster vaccination programmes.

Effect of serotype on focus and mortality of invasive pneumococcal disease: coverage of different vaccines and insight into non-vaccine serotypes.

Background Differences in pathogenicity between pneumococcal serotypes are important when assessing the potential benefit of different valency vaccines. We investigated the effect of serotype on clinical presentation, outcome, and quality of life lost from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the context of the 7, 10, and 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7, PCV10, PCV13). Method Serotyped IPD cases in England were linked to the national dataset of hospital admissions for April 2002 to March 2011. Based on patients’ diagnostic codes and vital status at the end of the admission, disease focus (meningitis, empyema, sepsis, or respiratory disease) and case fatality rates by serotype and age group (5, 5–64, and 65 years and over) were obtained. Using these data the quality adjusted life years (QALY) lost from the IPD remaining when use of PCV7 stopped in 2010 was estimated for the serotypes covered by higher valency vaccines. Results The linked dataset contained 23,688 cases with information on diagnosis, mortality, and serotype. There were significant differences between serotypes in the propensity to cause meningitis, death, and QALY loss in each of the investigated age groups. As a result, vaccines’ coverage of disease burden differed by endpoint. For example, in children under 5 years in 2009/10, PCV10 covered 39% of meningitis, 19% of deaths and 28% of the QALY loss of attributable to IPD, whereas the respective percentages for PCV13 were 65%, 67%, and 66%. The highest QALY loss per serotype in this age group was for 6A. Non-PCV serotypes causing the highest QALY loss were 22F and 33F in <5 year olds and 31 in older individuals. Conclusion Marked differences exist between serotypes in clinical presentation and outcome, and these should be considered when evaluating the potential impact of higher valency vaccines on overall disease burden and associated QALY loss.

The cost-effectiveness of varicella and combined varicella and herpes zoster vaccination programmes in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND Despite the existence of varicella vaccine, many developed countries have not introduced it into their national schedules, partly because of concerns about whether herpes zoster (HZ, shingles) will increase due to a lack of exogenous boosting. The magnitude of any increase in zoster that might occur is dependent on rates at which adults and children mix - something that has only recently been quantified - and could be reduced by simultaneously vaccinating older individuals against shingles. This study is the first to assess the cost-effectiveness of combined varicella and zoster vaccination options and compare this to alternative programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS The cost-effectiveness of various options for the use of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) containing vaccines was explored using a transmission dynamic model. Underlying contact rates are estimated from a contemporary survey of social mixing patterns, and uncertainty in these derived from bootstrapping the original sample. The model was calibrated to UK data on varicella and zoster incidence. Other parameters were taken from the literature. UK guidance on perspective and discount rates were followed. The results of the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis suggest that a combined policy is cost-effective. However, the cost-effectiveness of this policy (and indeed the childhood two-dose policy) is influenced by projected benefits that accrue many decades (80-100 years or more) after the start of vaccination. If the programme is evaluated over shorter time frames, then it would be unlikely to be deemed cost-effective, and may result in declines in population health, due to a projected rise in the incidence of HZ. The findings are also sensitive to a number of parameters that are inaccurately quantified, such as the risk of HZ in varicella vaccine responders. CONCLUSIONS Policy makers should be aware of the potential negative benefits in the first 30-50 years after introduction of a childhood varicella vaccine. This can only be partly mitigated by the introduction of a herpes zoster vaccine. They have to decide how they value the potential benefits beyond this time to consider childhood vaccination cost effective.

Vaccination of risk groups in England using the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: economic analysis

Objective To estimate the cost effectiveness of vaccinating people with high risk conditions against invasive pneumococcal disease using the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Design Economic evaluation using a cohort model from the perspective of healthcare providers. Setting England. Participants People aged 2 years and older at increased risk of invasive pneumococcal disease due to chronic kidney disease; splenic dysfunction; HIV infection; a compromised immune system; chronic heart, liver, or respiratory disease; or diabetes. Main outcome measures Costs, gains in life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. Results Increasing indirect protection resulting from the vaccination programme of infants using the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine means that the burden of disease preventable by targeting high risk groups will diminish in time. Under base case assumptions—that is, no overall impact on non bacteraemic pneumonia in high risk groups and assuming the high risk vaccination programme would be launched two to three years after the infant programme—the incremental cost effectiveness ratio was estimated to be more than £30 000 (€37 216;

The Impact of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 on Health-Related Quality of Life: A Prospective Population-Based Study

48 210) per QALY gained for most risk groups. If, however, the vaccine does not offer protection against non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia or the vaccine was introduced concomitantly with the infant 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programme then vaccinating high risk people would (more) likely be cost effective. Sensitivity analyses showed that the cost effectiveness was particularly sensitive to assumed herd benefits and vaccine efficacy estimates. Conclusion Under base case assumptions it is unlikely that a pneumococcal vaccination programme aimed at risk groups could be considered cost effective. Uncertainty could be substantially reduced by establishing the effectiveness of the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia, particularly in at risk groups.