Albert Wijeweera

Economic Growth and FDI Inflows: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis

Despite plausible theoretical grounds for presuming a positive relationship between foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) and economic growth, existing empirical evidence on this nexus is inconclusive. In an effort to add to the empirical literature, this paper estimates the relationship between FDI and the rate of growth of GDP using a stochastic frontier model and employing panel data covering 45 countries over the period 1997 to 2004. We find that FDI inflows exert a positive impact on economic growth only in the presence of a highly skilled labour; corruption has a negative impact on economic growth; and trade openness increases economic growth by means of efficiency gains.

Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis

Despite the large number and variety of studies addressing the relationship between military spending and economic growth, a consensus regarding the exact nature of any relationship between the two has proven elusive. This study uses a panel co-integration approach to examine the relationship between military spending and economic growth in the five South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh over the period of 1988–2007. It finds that a 1% increase in military spending increases real GDP by only 0.04%, suggesting that the substantial amount of public expenditure that is currently directed towards military purposes in these countries has a negligible impact upon economic growth.

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SRI LANKA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

In this paper, we employ a VAR analysis to examine the nexus between military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka which, due to the civil war there, has witnessed a significant increase in military spending over the last three decades while also recording healthy economic growth. The study finds that, compared with non‐military spending, military spending exerts only a minimal positive impact on real GDP. Over a 10‐year period, a 1% increase in non‐military spending increases GDP by 1.6%. In contrast, military spending only increases GDP by 0.05%, suggesting that the economic benefits for Sri Lanka from a sustained peace may be considerable.

Financial development and economic growth: evidence from transition economies

The hypothesis that financial development promotes economic growth enjoys significant support from empirical evidence drawn from both developed and developing countries alike. However, analogous empirical evidence is still lacking for economies in transition. This article analyses the effects of financial intermediation on the growth of real GDP by employing data for 27 countries over the period of 1989 to 2004. Using an endogenous growth model and panel data analysis techniques, we estimate regressions with various proxies for financial sector development. We find that in contrast to some recent empirical work, there is a robust positive link between financial development and economic growth in transition economies.

Host country corruption level and Foreign Direct Investments inflows

This paper investigates the effects of corruption on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows controlling other relevant determinants using a panel data approach for 45 countries over 1997-2004. Whereas economic theory suggests that corruption should discourage FDI, many notably corrupt countries receive substantial FDI – an anomaly worthy of investigation. In common with other empirical work, we find no statistically significant impact of corruption on FDI. This suggests that policies designed to attract additional foreign FDI should focus on other determinants of investment rather than on the intractable problem of reducing the level of corruption.

Using the Feder-Ram and Military Keynesian Models to Examine the Link Between Defence Spending and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka

This study uses the Feder-Ram model in conjunction with the military Keynesian model to examine the nexus between defence spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka. We find that the Keynesian aggregate demand model is better suited to analyse the link than the Feder-Ram model for the case of Sri Lanka. Based upon our results we expect a higher economic growth rate in Sri Lanka if more public resources are diverted from the defence to civilian sectors of the economy, now that the war between the government and separatist guerrillas has come to an end. However, recent post war events cast doubt upon whether a diversion of sources from military to non-military spending will actually occur. We conclude that the sanguine predictions of our economic analysis are entirely dependent upon the political decisions of the Sri Lankan government for their realization.

Estimation of the Export Demand Function using Bilateral Trade Data

Trade liberalization policy represents an important policy instrument for developing countries. However, existing empirical literature on the impact of trade liberalization is ambiguous and this uncertainty also extends to Bangladesh economy. Various studies have sought to estimate econometrically the export demand function for Bangladesh as a means of clarifying the effects of trade liberalization in that country. Unfortunately, no recent studies have examined the liberalization effect on disaggregated exports in Bangladesh. In order to remedy this neglect, this article examines the likely impacts of trade liberalization policies on the disaggregated export function in Bangladesh for the period 1973–2004. The main purpose is to examine whether bilateral export elasticities are significantly different between major trading partners. If this is indeed the case, then different policies should be implemented rather than a single trade policy to enhance exports. A secondary objective is to establish whether trade liberalization has had any impact on the export sector in Bangladesh.

J-curve disparity between the goods sector and the services sector: evidence from Australia

The J-curve effect phenomenon suggests that the currency devaluation would worsen the trade balance in the short run, but improve it in the long run. This article uses quarterly Australian data over the period 1988 to 2011 to examine whether J-curve effects are different between the two main components of the trade account: the goods sector and the services sector. Using the bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling, we find some evidence to support the J-curve phenomenon, but the impact of real exchange rate on the trade account seems complex. While the services sector displays a J-curve effect, the goods sector response is quite the opposite: it has a positive response in the short run, but a weak negative response in the long run.

An empirical analysis of the determinants of passenger rail demand in Melbourne, Australia

Considerable yet largely unexpected growth in passenger rail demand has occurred recently in Australian capital cities. This article uses historical data, together with modern time series methods, to examine empirically the factors that might have contributed to growth in passenger rail demand in Melbourne, Australia, and to gain greater insight into the relationships between the various explanatory variables. A cointegration approach is used to estimate the long-run rail elasticities, while an error correction model is used to estimate short-run elasticities. The study finds that the short – run rail elasticity is twice as low as the long-run elasticity, although both are highly inelastic. The inelastic nature of the demand suggests that a fare increase would not lead to a significant drop in boardings, and hence results in a rise in total revenue. In addition to the fare, city population, petrol price and passenger income exert a positive impact on passenger rail demand.

An econometric analysis of Sri Lankan monetary policy shocks and exchange rates

A growing empirical literature has sought to determine the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates and other important macroeconomic variables. This paper seeks to add to this literature in the area of emerging markets by using the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) methodology in an attempt to examine the impacts of monetary policy changes on the exchange rate for Sri Lanka over the period 1950 to 2004. Following Kalyvitis and Michaelides (2001), we employ a five-variable VAR approach that encompasses an output measure, a price indicator, a monetary policy measure, an interest rate yardstick and the exchange rate. Using impulse response functions and analysis of variance decompositions, we find that the Sri Lankan exchange rate follows the pattern suggested by the standard exchange rate model with delayed overshooting. This study further suggests that standard monetary policy is not adequate by itself for controlling the Sri Lankan economy.