Alberto Cabrero

Housing Cycles in the Major Euro Area Countries

The recent burst of the house price bubble in the United States and its spillover effects on real economies worldwide has rekindled the interest in the role of housing in the business cycle. In this paper, we investigate the relationships between housing cycles among the four major euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the sample 1980Q1-2008Q4. Our main findings are that GDP cycles show a high degree of comovement across these four countries, reflecting trade linkages, but much weaker ones for housing market cycles, where idiosyncratic factors play a major role. House prices are even less related than quantities across countries. We also find much stronger relationships in the common monetary policy period.

Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle

The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third,there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.

Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle in Spain

The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: first, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuations in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third, there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.