Alec Morton

Technology-driven and model-driven approaches to group decision support: focus, research philosophy, and key concepts

There are (at least) two distinct traditions within group decision support: what we will call the ‘Technology-driven’ tradition, which originates in the Information Systems discipline, and what we will call the ‘Model-driven’ tradition, which originates in OR/MS. Although proponents of the two traditions share many of the same objectives, in the past there has been little communication between the two groups. In this paper, we describe the basic distinction between the two traditions in terms of two primary themes: research focus (i.e., what the researchers find of interest) and research philosophy and methodology (i.e., how researchers go about studying their chosen subject matter); and we trace these implications of these differences through the key concepts of each tradition. We conclude by arguing that there are many opportunities for synergy between the two traditions.

Behavioural decision theory for multi-criteria decision analysis : a guided tour

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) involves asking decision makers difficult questions, and can leave them thinking that their judgements are not as coherent as they might have thought. This experience can be distressing and may even lead to rejection of the analysis. The psychology of preference sheds light both on how people naturally make choices without decision analytic assistance, and on how people think about the MCDA elicitation questions. As such, it can help the analyst to respond helpfully to difficulties which decision makers may face. In this paper, we review research from Behavioural Decision Theory relevant to MCDA. Our review follows the MCDA process, discussing research relevant to the structuring, value elicitation, and weighting phases of the analysis, outlining relevant and important findings, and open questions for research and practice.

Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.

Patrolling Games

A key operational problem for those charged with the security of vulnerable facilities (such as airports or art galleries) is the scheduling and deployment of patrols. Motivated by the problem of optimizing randomized, and thus unpredictable, patrols, we present a class of patrolling games. The facility to be patrolled can be thought of as a network or graph Q of interconnected nodes (e.g., rooms, terminals), and the Attacker can choose to attack any node of Q within a given time T. He requires m consecutive periods there, uninterrupted by the Patroller, to commit his nefarious act (and win). The Patroller can follow any path on the graph. Thus, the patrolling game is a win-lose game, where the Value is the probability that the Patroller successfully intercepts an attack, given best play on both sides. We determine analytically either the Value of the game, or bounds on the Value, for various classes of graphs, and we discuss possible extensions and generalizations.

Nuclear Risk Management on Stage: A Decision Analysis Perspective on the UK's Committee on Radioactive Waste Management

In 2003, the UK government set up a broad-based Committee on radioactive waste management (CoRWM) to look at the UKs policy on radioactive waste management with a view to jumpstarting a stalled policy process. The committees brief was to come up with a set of recommendations that would protect the public and the environment, and be capable of inspiring public confidence. After consulting widely with the public and stakeholders, and drawing on advice from scientists and other experts, CoRWM arrived at a remarkably well-received set of recommendations. On the basis of our experiences of working on CoRWMs multi-criteria decision analysis of different management options, study of CoRWM documentation, and interviews with committee members, we describe the explicit and implicit principles that guided CoRWM. We also give an account of the process by which CoRWM arrived at its conclusions, covering four phases: framing, shortlisting, option assessment, and integration; and four cross-cutting activities: public and stakeholder engagement (PSE), science and engineering input, ethics and social science input, and learning from overseas practice. We finish by outlining some of the key developments in the UKs radioactive waste management process, which followed on from the publication of CoRWMs report, and present our reflections for the benefit of the risk and decision analysts of future committees that, like CoRWM, are charged with recommending to government on the management of technically complex and risky technologies, drawing on extensive public and stakeholder consultation.

PROBE-A multicriteria decision support system for portfolio robustness evaluation

This paper addresses the problem of selecting a robust portfolio of projects in the context of limited resources, multiple criteria, different project interactions and several types of uncertainty. A portfolio of projects is considered an undoubtedly robust choice if for a given uncertainty domain that affects the costs and/or the benefits of the projects there is no other portfolio that does not cost more and simultaneously may provide more overall benefit. We present a new decision support system, PROBE (Portfolio Robustness Evaluation), and the algorithms it implements. PROBE identifies all efficient portfolios and depicts the respective Pareto frontier within a given portfolio cost range, and permits users to analyze, in depth, the robustness of selecting a proposed portfolio. The robustness evaluation starts by identifying competitor portfolios to the proposed portfolio, its similarities and differences in project composition to its competitors, and the regret a decision-maker may have by selecting the proposed portfolio instead of a competitor.

Ethics in Action Research

In this note, I discuss, firstly, some ethical dilemmas which are specific to doing action research, and, secondly, some of the aspects of action research which make dealing with ethical dilemmas particularly tricky.

An Invitation to Portfolio Decision Analysis

Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) – the application of decision analysis to the problem of selecting a subset or portfolio from a large set of alternatives – accounts for a significant share, perhaps the greater part, of decision analysis consulting. PDA has a sound theoretical and methodological basis, and its ability to contribute to better resource allocation decisions has been demonstrated in numerous applications. This book pulls together some of the rich and diverse efforts as a starting point for treating PDA as a promising and distinct area of study and application. In this introductory chapter, we first describe what we mean by PDA. We then sketch the historical development of some key ideas, outline the contributions contained in the chapters and, finally, offer personal perspectives on future work in this sub-field of decision analysis that merits growing attention.

Better environmental regulation--contributions from risk-based decision-making.

Internationally, pressure is being exerted on governments and regulators to develop modern forms of regulation that deliver more for less, and in better ways. We discuss the ways in which one large regulator, the Environment Agency for England and Wales, has responded to such pressures by implementing risk-based approaches to regulation. After exploring the context for key elements of risk-based environmental regulation, we consider the evolving influence of such approaches. We discuss the impacts against the UK Governments principles for better regulation and the key criteria for policy evaluation, before considering some of the challenges: the need to i) understand the best practice and promote consistency in risk-based regulation; ii) develop reliable, responsive forms of risk assessment and monitoring; iii) build capacities for responsive risk regulation; iv) evaluate the influence of different regulatory styles; and v) better understand the potential role of the private sector.

Adjusting life for quality or disability: stylistic difference or substantial dispute?

This paper focuses on the contrast between describing the benefit of a healthcare intervention as gain in health (QALY-type ideas) or a disability reduction (DALY-type ideas). The background is an apparent convergence in practice of the work conducted under both traditions. In the light of these methodological developments, we contrast a health planner who wants to maximise health and one who wants to minimise disability. To isolate the effect of framing the problem from a health or a disability perspective, we do not use age-weighting in calculating DALY and employ a common discounting methodology and the same set of quality of life weights. We find that interventions will be ranked in a systematically different way. The difference, however, is not determined by the use of a health or a disability perspective but by the use of life expectancy tables to determine the years of life lost. We show that this feature of the DALY method is problematic and we suggest its dismissal in favour of a fixed reference age rendering the use of a health or a disability perspective merely stylistic.