Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

Increasing Social–Ecological Resilience by Placing Science at the Decision Table: the Role of the San Pedro Basin (Arizona) Decision-Support System Model

We have analyzed how the collaborative development process of a decision-support system (DSS) model can effectively contribute to increasing the resilience of regional social-ecological systems. In particular, we have focused on the case study of the transboundary San Pedro Basin, in the Arizona- Sonora desert region. This is a semi-arid watershed where water is a scarce resource used to cover competing human and environmental needs. We have outlined the essential traits in the development of the decision- support process that contributed to an improvement of water-resources management capabilities while increasing the potential for consensual problem solving. Comments and feedback from the stakeholders benefiting from the DSS in the San Pedro Basin are presented and analyzed within the regional (United States-Mexico boundary), social, and institutional context. We have indicated how multidisciplinary collaboration between academia and stakeholders can be an effective step toward collaborative management. Such technology transfer and capacity building provides a common arena for testing water- management policies and evaluating future scenarios. Putting science at the service of a participatory decision-making process can provide adaptive capacity to accommodate future change (i.e., building resilience in the management system).

Decision Support Systems in Water Resources Planning and Management: Stakeholder Participation and the Sustainable Path to Science-Based Decision Making

This chapter will focus on decision support systems (DSS) as they relate to water resources management and planning. Water is a resource that touches and is interwoven with numerous human activities as well as the environment we live in. Its availability and beneficial use depend on the timing and manner of its arrival (rainfall intensity, rain or snow, duration, frequency), the physical setting of the region (climate and weather, topography, geology), the engineering structures in place, the environmental constraints (existing ecosystems), the legal regulatory context and institutional policies. In most contexts, cultural values and preferences are also very important. To make good decisions, it is clear that a detailed understanding of how the system works and behaves is necessary. It is equally important to understand the implications of these decisions what consequences are likely to ripple through the interwoven system, and what parties will be affected as a result of a particular set of actions? Understanding the coupled human and physical system is essential. In addition to looking at the evolution of decision support tools and methods for water resources management (Section 2), this chapter focuses on how integrative science and multi-resolution models provide the basis for a decision support system (Section 3), on the overall setting of the decision making process and ways in which a DSS for water resources should be developed (Section 4). We make the argument that for a DSS to be successful and informative, the process by which it is developed will be as important, or even more so, than the finished decision support tool itself. A description of successful participatory planning approaches and collaborative modeling methods is presented, as well as a comparison of several case studies. Section 5 presents an overview on how to deal with uncertainty. We present our vision to merge adaptive management, integrative modeling and stakeholder participation to face the water management challenges of the arriving future. A synthesis and future challenges are presented in the last section.

A platform for probabilistic Multimodel and Multiproduct Streamflow Forecasting

NASA-USAID [11-SERVIR11-58]; International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM-UNESCO); Australian Research Council through the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science [CE110001028]; EU [INCO-20011-7.6, 294947]

Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-west: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.

Evaluation of the Performance of Three Satellite Precipitation Products over Africa

Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT); GeoAguas Consultores (Chile); NASA SERVIR Program [11-SERVIR11-0058]; International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) a Category II UNESCO Center

A Global Capacity Building Vision for Societal Applications of Earth Observing Systems and Data: Key Questions and Recommendations

Capacity building using Earth observing (EO) systems and data (i.e., from orbital and nonorbital platforms) to enable societal applications includes the network of human, nonhuman, technical, nontechnical, hardware, and software dimensions that are necessary to successfully cross the valley [of death; see NRC (2001)] between science and research (port of departure) and societal application (port of arrival). In many parts of the world (especially where ground-based measurements are scarce or insufficient), applications of EO data still struggle for longevity or continuity for a variety of reasons, foremost among them being the lack of resilient capacity. An organization is said to have resilient capacity when it can retain and continue to build capacity in the face of unexpected shocks or stresses. Stresses can include intermittent power and limited Internet bandwidth, constant need for education on ever-increasing complexity of EO systems and data, communication challenges between the ports of departure and arrival (especially across time zones), and financial limitations and instability. Shocks may also include extreme events such as disasters and losing key staff with technical and institutional knowledge.

Water Governance Tools: The Role of Science and Decision Support Systems in Participatory Management

Participatory water resources management and planning have become a main feature of water governance processes. A review of the evolution of decision support systems for water resources planning and management through today demonstrates that stakeholder participation through science-fed collaborative planning processes is an essential factor for integrative science to be perceived as credible, relevant, transparent, and thus acceptable in the public eye to inform and guide decision making. Two case studies from the American Southwest—the Rio Grande in New Mexico and the San Pedro in Arizona—illustrate how a strong scientific contribution that includes an integrated modeling approach can form the foundation for participatory planning processes and the collaborative development of decision support tools. Based on conflict resolution concepts, this approach will not only lead to agreed-upon management solutions, but also to a well informed and educated stakeholder community in the basin, ensuring a sustainable and resilient water governance system.

Data collection for cooperative water resources modeling in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, Fort Quitman to the Gulf of Mexico.

Water resource scarcity around the world is driving the need for the development of simulation models that can assist in water resources management. Transboundary water resources are receiving special attention because of the potential for conflict over scarce shared water resources. The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo along the U.S./Mexican border is an example of a scarce, transboundary water resource over which conflict has already begun. The data collection and modeling effort described in this report aims at developing methods for international collaboration, data collection, data integration and modeling for simulating geographically large and diverse international watersheds, with a special focus on the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo. This report describes the basin, and the data collected. This data collection effort was spatially aggregated across five reaches consisting of Fort Quitman to Presidio, the Rio Conchos, Presidio to Amistad Dam, Amistad Dam to Falcon Dam, and Falcon Dam to the Gulf of Mexico. This report represents a nine-month effort made in FY04, during which time the model was not completed.

Applying Earth Observations to Water Resources Challenges

Since 2007, significant strides have been made to build the applied research and Earth observations (EO) capacity building community and develop pathways for NASA and Earth observations to help address challenges in water resources. Water is both a critical research topic (e.g. understanding the global water cycle) as well as a critical resource for civilization. As a result, there is a consensus that information about water availability could be valuable for improved management and for water security. The biggest challenge in developing useful applications is finding a way to translate research products, intended to address research questions, to applications that can yield a societal benefit. This chapter addresses the current challenges and future prospects of earth observing systems in the field of water resources.