Alejandro Riaño

The Rise of the Maquiladoras: A Mixed Blessing

Mexico experienced a tremendous expansion of its export‐processing maquila sector during the 1990s. Since one of the main objectives of the maquiladora program was to promote formal employment, we study how the rapid increase in maquiladora activity has affected labor market outcomes and welfare in Mexico. We develop a heterogeneous‐firm model with imperfect labor markets that captures salient features of the Mexican economy such as the differences between maquila and non‐maquila manufacturing plants and the existence of an informal sector. We calibrate the models parameters to match key cross‐sectional moments characterizing the Mexican economy. We find that the expansion of the maquila sector during the 1990s was a mixed blessing for Mexico. Our quantitative model indicates that the skill premium decreased by 2.7%, informality increased by 0.9%, and overall welfare decreased by 3.7%.

Credit Constraints and FDI Spillovers in China

This paper examines whether credit constraints affect Chinese firms’ absorption of productivity spillovers from foreign firms. Using firm-level data for 2001-2005, we find evidence of positive spillovers originating from FDI from countries other than Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan for non-state owned Chinese firms operating in the same industry and province. Our main finding is that domestic firms operating in industries characterised by a greater reliance on external finance, our measure of credit constraints, enjoy lower (and even negative) spillovers from the activity of foreign-owned firms. This result is robust to the inclusion of a wide variety of other industry-level characteristics interacting with the activity of foreign firms.

Maquiladoras and Informality: A Mixed Blessing

Mexico experienced a tremendous expansion of its export-processing maquila sector during the 1990s. At the same time, a large proportion of its labor force remains employed in the informal sector. Since one of the main objectives of the maquiladora program was to increase formal employment, we study how the rapid increase in maquiladora activity has affected labor market outcomes in Mexico. We develop a heterogeneous firm model with imperfect labor markets that captures salient features of the Mexican economy such as the differences between maquila and non-maquila manufacturing plants and the existence of an informal sector. We calibrate the models parameters to match key cross-sectional moments characterizing the Mexican economy. Our quantitative model indicates that the expansion of the maquila sector during the 1990s produced an increase in informality of 0.9% and a reduction in the skill premium and overall welfare of 2.7% and 3.7%, respectively. A counterfactual experiment in which we shut down the informal sector completely results in a reduction of Mexican welfare of 33.5% relative to the equilibrium with an informal sector.

The Decision to Export and the Volatility of Sales

This paper studies the export decision of risk-averse firms in a model featuring aggregate uncertainty and no capital markets. Firms seeking to enter the foreign market face a sunk cost as well as a fixed participation cost every period they export. Using a calibrated version of the model, I show that firms are more likely to export when the correlation between domestic and foreign aggregate shocks is negative and when their degree of risk-aversion is higher. Counterfactual experiments show that exporting increases the volatility of total sales.

Global Engagement and Returns Volatility

This paper finds that a greater reliance on foreign market sales increases the volatility of firms’ stock returns, using high-frequency data for publicly listed Japanese manufacturing firms over the period 2000–10. The two margins of global engagement we consider, namely, exports and sales via foreign affiliates (horizontal foreign direct investment), have both a positive and economically significant effect on firm-level volatility. We find, however, that increasing the intensity of sales through foreign affiliates has a stronger effect on volatility than a similar change in export intensity. We also uncover evidence consistent with the notion that firms’ need to use external finance to cover the substantial costs involved in reaching foreign consumers can be an important channel through which firms’ participation in international markets increases their exposure to economic uncertainty.

Political Environment and Privatization Prices

This paper studies the link between the political and institutional context and privatization sales prices. The latter serves as a measure for assessing the relative performance of the privatization goals. Whereas this link has been studied theoretically, there are very few, if any, empirical papers on this relationship. Using data from 308 privatizations around the world and applying a cross-country approach (including instrumental variables), we find that, while the overall political regime does not matter much for prices, the political processes beyond the basic regime do matter. Institutional context also produces a significant impact on prices. Both results are robust to changes in specification.

All These Worlds are Yours, Except India: The Effectiveness of Export Subsidies in Nepal

This paper evaluates the effect on firm-level export outcomes of the Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports program provided by the Government of Nepal. The analysis utilizes customs-level data for 2011-14, combined with information on the subsidy payments made to individual firms provided by the Central Bank of Nepal. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports cash subsidy is available to firms exporting a select group of products, and requires firms to export to countries other than India. Overall, the subsidy has not produced a significant impact on firm-level export values, prices, quantities, or their growth rates. However, the study finds a small positive effect on the number of eligible products exported to countries other than India and the number of destination markets reached among firms that receive the subsidy. These results are consistent with the fact that the subsidy was granted primarily to large exporters that were already shipping eligible products to countries other than India. The findings suggest that although the cash subsidy has not produced a significant increase in exports, it has achieved a positive impact on export diversification for firms that were already satisfying the schemes eligibility criteria.