Aleksandar Zdravković

Misunderstanding of FDI in the Western Balkans: Cart before the Horse and Wheels without Suspension

ABSTRACT One of the key characteristics of the world economy in the last few decades has been the rise of foreign direct investments (FDI), which represent the major and most desirable form of capital flows from developed to developing and transition countries. The aim of this paper is to investigate specificities of FDI inflow to six small open transition economies of the western Balkans over the 2004–2014 period. Formal econometric tests carried out in the paper imply that—contrary to widespread ideology—FDI inflows exhibit at best no impact whatsoever or indeed a statistically significant negative impact on both GDP and GNP (cumulative) growth rates in the western Balkans. After exploring stylized facts and contrasting them with theoretical predictions, the article goes on to debunk several misconceptions in regard to motives, modes of operation and economic effects of FDI confronted with inconsistent, partial or outright detrimental government policies. The authors therefore call for a considerably different attitude towards FDI and the growth-generating concept in the Balkans.

Impact of FDI on unemployment in transition countries: panel cointegrationapproach

This paper examines the relationship between FDI inflow per capita and unemployment rates in 17 transition countries over the period 2000-2014. It aims at testing the premise, usually suggested by policy makers, that higher attraction of FDI in transition countries results in inevitable unemployment reduction. The empirical analysis contributes to the existing literature applying panel cointegration approach in testing and assessing long-run impact of FDI on unemployment, as an alternative to typical panel analysis that examine contemporaneous relations. The evidence from seven performed panel cointegration tests provide the mixed results, while the Fully Modified and Dynamic OLS panel estimations indicate that FDI and unemployment are most likely not cointegrated. The inconclusiveness of the empirical evidences gives the argument in support of the general conclusion that long-run impact of FDI on unemployment in transition countries is either very loose or does not exist.