Aleksander Sładkowski

A comparison of forecasting the results of road transportation needs

Abstract Determining the size and quality of transport needs would not be possible without adequate forecasting based on the sales volume or demand for this service from the past periods. Traditional forecasting methods use econometric models that may be subject to serious errors. The use of the methods taking into account the variability of the studied phenomena or more advanced mathematical methods enables to minimize the error. Various methods of artificial intelligence such as a neural network, fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, etc., have been recently successfully applied. The aim of this paper is to compare three forecasting methods that can be used for predicting the volume of road freight. The article deals with the effectiveness of three prediction methods, namely Winters method for seasonal problems – a multiplicative version, harmonic analysis and harmonic analysis aided by the artificial immune system. The effectiveness of prediction was counted using MAPE errors (main average percentage error)...

Influence of a Potential Railway Line Connecting the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea on the Development of Eurasian Trade

This article deals with the current state of the transport of goods on East West routes. It presents currently available options of carriage with mentioning the barriers and problems associated with the increasing Eurasian trade of goods carried along these corridors. Special attention was focused on costs and time analysis of exemplary freight of 40-feet container from China to Poland using alternative routes. It is determined that there are alternative possibilities that also include waterways. The main aim of this article is to present the potential demand related to the TRACECA major traffic flows passing through a corridor formed on one hand, in Western and Central Europe, and on the other in Central and East Asia. As one of these possibilities a TRACECA corridor with the railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars is considered together with SWOT analysis based on experts’ knowledge. The benefits of intermodal transport are obvious so the introduction of railway line connecting two seas, the Caspian Sea with the Black Sea, seems to be the crucial element in the cheapest solution.

Green Logistics: Element of the Sustainable Development Concept. Part 1

DOI 10.17818/NM/2017/3.7 UDK 656:502 502:504 Review / Pregledni rad Paper accepted / Rukopis primljen: 28. 8. 2017. Aleksandr Rakhmangulov Department of Logistics and Transportation Systems Management Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University e-mail: ran@magtu.ru Aleksander Sladkowski Silesian University of Technology Poland e-mail: aleksander.sladkowski@polsl.pl Nikita Osintsev Department of Logistics and Transportation Systems Management Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University e-mail: osintsev@magtu.ru

Design of an ITS for Industrial Enterprises

One of the factors limiting the increase in quality of traffic with the increasing complexity of the freight traffic in Russia is the lack of interaction consistency of the main modes of transport and transport uncommon in areas of direct transport service production and transport units. Lack of practical operating experience of intelligent transport systems in Russian enterprises, poor prevalence of well-known methods of accumulation and analysis of knowledge in transport, decision-making (genetic algorithms, neural networks, knowledge bases, Big Data methods, etc.) require improvement of the existing interaction methodology between industry and transport, in particular transport and technological systems providing direct cargo transport services. This methodology should be based not only on modern progress in technology and organization of rail transport, but also taken into account the economic and informational factors and constraints that arise in the interaction of industrial and mainline rail. This article proposes an approach to the formation and composition of intelligent transport systems in industry. This approach is based on the original combination of analytical and simulation models of transport and technological system realizing the complex of transport and logistic methods of functioning organization of rail transport and technological systems. Intelligent transport system of proposed functional composition is focused on improving the efficiency of interaction between production and transport in terms of complicating the structure of freight traffic and the increasing quality requirements for freight.

Sustainable Development of Transport Systems for Cargo Flows on the East-West Direction

The implementation of the project “The Economic Belt of the Silk Road” and the creation of new transport links of the international communication make it important to place logistics centers on the road to the flow of freight flows in the East-West direction. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for assessing the variants of logistics centers location. The authors proposed the methodology and model allowing us to determine the necessity of placing logistics objects on the basis of a system analysis of transport performance indicators, infrastructural, socio-economic factors. The paper analyzed trends in international trade, reviewed existing and prospective international Euro-Asian transport corridors. The researchers systematized the factors that have the greatest impact on the transport and logistics infrastructure development and on the logistics centers location. Based on the proposed system of factors, the authors developed an assessing methodology for locating variants of logistics centers. The chapter performs the results of the attractiveness assessment of the regions for the logistics infrastructure facilities location according to the developed methodology for the conditions in the Russian Federation as in one of the countries pretending to promote cargo flows through its territory within the framework of the project “The Economic Belt of the Silk Road”.

Potential and Problems of the Development of Speed Traffic on the Railways of Uzbekistan

The chapter deals with the features of the organization of high-speed train traffic on existing Uzbek railways. The possibility of preserving and increasing the carrying capacity of high-speed railways with the combined movement, of freight and passenger trains, as well as the influence of speed traffic on the construction and technological parameters of individual parts and structural elements infrastructure of the railway, from the position of ensuring traffic safety at high-speed railways of Uzbekistan is analyzed in the article. The results of the research can be useful in studying, designing and operating a railway track of high-speed roads under similar conditions.

Analysis and Development Perspective Scenarios of Transport Corridors Supporting Eurasian Trade

The chapter deals with freight transport between Europe and Asia, supporting intercontinental exchange of goods. So first the impact of Eurasian trade on transport and logistics branch is presented. The analysis is focused on position of European Union in global trade, especially with China and its influence on the increase of services for logistics operators. In another part of the chapter analysis of transport corridors between Europe and Asia are presented. Then, the paper focuses on future development of Eurasian transport corridors. The research objective of this chapter was to prepare strategic analysis of future transport development in Eurasian region. Eurasian transport network SWOT analysis is shown and scenario building based on STEEPLE environmental analysis. The purpose of the scenario analysis was to acquire knowledge in order to rationalize future decisions in strategy building for the investments and research connected with the topic.

Aspects of Rail Infrastructure Design

Now for the construction of railway tracks for subway or tram, new designs of spring rail fastenings are used. These units are quite difficult to calculate, because they contain a number of contact connections. In this chapter, a technique of numerical analysis for the study of these fastenings is developed, based on the use of the finite element method. The developed technique has been used for the analysis of SB-3 rail fastening. The authors also present a brief discussion on fastening the rails to the sleepers used in the past and present on Polish rail network. This research aims to create a computational model of the SB-3 rail fastening using the FEM (Finite Element Method) from which further research can be developed.

Transnational Value of the Republic of Kazakhstan in International Container Transportation

Kazakhstan occupies a key position on routes of transcontinental cargo transportation along the East-West routes. The chapter deals with the containers transportation through the territory of Kazakhstan. Technical and economic aspects related to the possibility of accelerating such transport are being studied. Various types of cargoes and possible routes for this delivery are considered. Particular attention was paid to the development of communication between Chinese port terminals and railway stations in Kazakhstan.

Green Logistics: A System of Methods and Instruments - Part 2

DOI 10.17818/NM/2018/1.7 UDK 502/504:656 Review / Pregledni rad Paper accepted / Rukopis primljen: 31. 8. 2017. Aleksandr Rakhmangulov Department of Logistics and Transportation Systems Management Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University Russia e-mail: ran@magtu.ru Aleksander Sladkowski Department of Logistics and Industrial Transportation Silesian University of Technology Poland e-mail: aleksander.sladkowski@polsl.pl Nikita Osintsev Department of Logistics and Transportation Systems Management Nosov Magnitogorsk State Technical University Russia e-mail: osintsev@magtu.ru