Aleksandra Nojković

Fiscal Multipliers in Emerging European Economies

Filling the evidence gap on the size and variations of fiscal multipliers in developing countries, and contributing to the debate on the fiscal transmission mechanism, we found that the government spending multipliers in emerging Europe are (i) higher than in developing countries and at lower end of those in developed countries; (ii) the fiscal multiplier is large under fixed exchange rate and close to zero under floating and this is related to different monetary policy stance across regimes; (iii) the multiplier substantially increases in the Great Recession relative to pre-crisis expansion; (iv) upon government spending shock private consumption increases under both exchange rate regimes, in downturn and expansion, and hence in the over-all sample, thus mimicking the corresponding pattern of spending multipliers, and hence supporting predictions of traditional and new Keynesian models rather than those of neoclassical ones.

Fiscal Pressure of Interest Payments in Serbia - A Time Series Exploration

We focus on the response of primary fiscal balance to interest payments and borrowing costs on Serbian public debt before and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Our analysis reveals: i) policy makers financed up to 50% of each percentage point increase in interest payments to GDP ratio with new public debt issuance; ii) the government has responded to rising interest payments and borrowing costs by reducing primary fiscal balance from the onset of the global financial crisis; iii) the response of primary fiscal balance to interest payments mimics the response of primary fiscal balance to the costs of borrowing; iv) fiscal austerity measures adopted after the breach of fiscal rule for public debt have been insufficient to stabilize fiscal policy stance in Serbia.